CNN: Biden+16

[BidenHarris2020]

STOP QUOTING ME, YOU KEEP FILLING MY INBOX WITH THIS SHAITE.

Keep quoting him, yall!

[redjohn]

Wow. Looks like Biden is capturing the undecided vote. I'd say the poll was unreliable if Trump was at like 35 to get a Biden+16 result, but Biden getting this high of the vote share is extremely, awful, no-good, horrible news for Trump. Biden is still a heavy favorite to win this election. If we continue to see double-digit polls for Biden in a couple weeks, we're going to be talking about a whole new round of "swing states" come election day.

[Liberalrocks]

Party like it's 1932

With the deep recession and pandemic the mysery index is about the same. Vote Biden!

[Sir Mohamed]

Wow. Looks like Biden is capturing the undecided vote. I'd say the poll was unreliable if Trump was at like 35 to get a Biden+16 result, but Biden getting this high of the vote share is extremely, awful, no-good, horrible news for Trump. Biden is still a heavy favorite to win this election. If we continue to see double-digit polls for Biden in a couple weeks, we're going to be talking about a whole new round of "swing states" come election day.

That's exactly why this isn't 2016. 4 years ago, undecideds, who disliked both candidates, heavily broke for Trump. That's why HRC leading a poll 45-40% was worth much less than Biden being close or above in state polls. We already had indications months ago that voters disliking both candidates go for Biden. I could imagine a lot of them being exhausted and are tired of Trump's ongoing reality show. They don't want to hear from the prez and his scandals every day.

[woodley park]

RECKLESS ENDANGERMENT BUMP

[Lief 🗽]

This move 538's forecast to 82-17 chance of Biden winning,   his highest ever.

When will Nate Silver formally apologize to G. Elliot Morris for his disgusting criticisms, now that the 538 model is converging (like a dog) with the Economist model?

[Bootes Void]

The squirrels are happy because they are so many nuts here

[WD]

STOP QUOTING ME, YOU KEEP FILLING MY INBOX WITH THIS SHAITE.

don’t worry we will be quoting them very soon

When that time comes, I will be merciless.

“Will you shut up, man?”

[Blair]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!.

[Yoda]

So this is the senior numbers for the post-debate/covid polling:

Seniors:

NBC:
Biden 62-35

CNN:
Biden 60-39

Michigan Glengariff:
Biden 59-29

Probably the most single defining stat of the election right there.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

STOP QUOTING ME, YOU KEEP FILLING MY INBOX WITH THIS SHAITE.

Haha quote button go brrrrrr

[Hydera]

STOP QUOTING ME, YOU KEEP FILLING MY INBOX WITH THIS SHAITE.

don’t worry we will be quoting them very soon

When that time comes, I will be merciless.

[Bojack Horseman]

We’re starting to move from 1980 into 1932 territory. 

[ProudModerate2]

CNN jumps around so much I wouldn't be surprised to see their next poll in a couple of weeks be something like Biden +7, and everyone freaking out of course.

Agree.
But I guess we can have a little fun with this one.

[WD]

STOP QUOTING ME, YOU KEEP FILLING MY INBOX WITH THIS SHAITE.

don’t worry we will be quoting them very soon

When that time comes, I will be merciless.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

CNN has a weird history with national polls. One shows a blow-out, then everyone is freaking out over a bare Biden lead before the numbers are reverting back to landslide territory. While I have little illusions Biden will win the NPV by this margin, the trendline since the debate is against Trump. I think it's fair to say he lost further ground over the first days of October.

That debate seemed to matter a lot more than we thought

[Adam Griffin]

My take:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1313464599639883776?s=21

The sample is D+5 though? And the sample for NBC was D+3. So that doesn't really jive.

Devil's Advocate:

The gist of the argument is that you can't just look at D-R self-ID margin alone, but also have to consider "independents". Given the basis of partisan non-response not inherently just applying to those who identify as partisan (because the vast majority of self-identified "independents" are indistinguishable from base voters in one of the two major parties, except public voter files are often useless in identifying them as strict-D or strict-R if you're a national pollster), the argument is basically that Trump independents and/or leaners are far less likely to answer surveys given the walloping he's had recently relative to Biden independents/leaners.

If such applies, then even the countermeasures that pollsters use (i.e. continuing to sample "under-represented" groups) won't yield an effectively different result based on how they categorize voters. That's because they'll keep sampling "independent"/leaning/swing voters and finding the same result with a partisan non-response bias.

One can look at this poll and see that Trump's support share really hasn't collapsed all that much: Trump dropped 2 points and Biden gained 6 points relative to the last CNN poll. This isn't inherently how swing voters behave, even this close to the election; they tend to go from D-to-undecided or R-to-undecided rather than making an absolute leap. If anything, CW would suggest the reverse for a 16-point margin: that Trump should've collapsed by 6 points and Biden would have gained 2 (i.e. 53-37).

There'd be an argument for this not being an outlier and/or not being subject to partisan non-response biases had Biden been posting low-double digit margins all month long and gradually growing, but alas.

[pbrower2a]

Someone change the title please.

https://twitter.com/AllisonLHedges/status/1313419495373975555

Biggest lead this cycle. Freedom poll!!

Such, were it to hold, portends a Biden victory over Trump much like Reagan over Mondale in 1988. The disparity in the Electoral College obviously would not match.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Trump will lose but by less than 16 points.

[Alben Barkley]

We’re starting to move from 1980 into 1932 territory. 

Yeah was gonna say, this is close to the actual 1932 or 1984 margin.

[MT Treasurer]

This race is reminding me more and more of IL-SEN 2016, just on a national stage:

*Republican who just barely got lucky by running against a corrupt/extremely unpopular Democrat in his last race is now facing completely different circumstances (far more popular opponent, lack of persuadable voters, more energized D base, erosion of suburban support, etc.) in his reelection bid which make it impossible for him to replicate his last victory.
*The incumbent is (badly) trailing a Democrat who has been considered "overrated" and "weak" and "likely to blow it" by many even when nothing suggests that this is the case.
*Many obsessively caution against underestimating the incumbent even when it should have been obvious that he’s pretty much been toast since day one.
*The incumbent eventually ends up self-destructing and loses about as badly as the polling averages have been suggesting.

(obviously not a flawless analogy)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why haven't we seen any TX polls, especially if Biden is really up 16, HEGAR would be up 6 pts on Cornyn and she isn't, she is still behind. Like I was saying before, it's not double digits it's more like 7 or 9 pts

[Roll Roons]

This race is reminding me more and more of IL-SEN 2016, just on a national stage:

*Republican who just barely got lucky by running against a corrupt/extremely unpopular Democrat in his last race is now facing completely different circumstances (far more popular opponent, lack of persuadable voters, more energized D base, erosion of suburban support, etc.) in his reelection bid which make it impossible for him to replicate his last victory.
*The incumbent is (badly) trailing a Democrat who has been considered "overrated" and "weak" and "likely to blow it" by many even when nothing suggests that this is the case.
*Many obsessively caution against underestimating the incumbent even when it should have been obvious that he’s pretty much been toast since day one.
*The incumbent eventually ends up self-destructing and loses about as badly as the polling averages have been suggesting.

(obviously not a flawless analogy)

To be fair, Mark imploded as badly as he did largely because of his stroke. If he was healthy, he would have likely still lost, but by a much smaller margin. In 2008 (!!!), he won reelection to his House seat by 6 points as Obama carried the district by 22.

[brucejoel99]

This race is reminding me more and more of IL-SEN 2016, just on a national stage:

*Republican who just barely got lucky by running against a corrupt/extremely unpopular Democrat in his last race is now facing completely different circumstances (far more popular opponent, lack of persuadable voters, more energized D base, erosion of suburban support, etc.) in his reelection bid which make it impossible for him to replicate his last victory.
*The incumbent is (badly) trailing a Democrat who has been considered "overrated" and "weak" and "likely to blow it" by many even when nothing suggests that this is the case.
*Many obsessively caution against underestimating the incumbent even when it should have been obvious that he’s pretty much been toast since day one.
*The incumbent eventually ends up self-destructing and loses about as badly as the polling averages have been suggesting.

(obviously not a flawless analogy)

To be fair, Mark imploded as badly as he did largely because of his stroke. If he was healthy, he would have likely still lost, but by a much smaller margin. In 2008 (!!!), he won reelection to his House seat by 6 points as Obama carried the district by 22.

I thought he imploded because of the Thai debate gaffe, what did the stroke have to do with his implosion?

[Roll Roons]

This race is reminding me more and more of IL-SEN 2016, just on a national stage:

*Republican who just barely got lucky by running against a corrupt/extremely unpopular Democrat in his last race is now facing completely different circumstances (far more popular opponent, lack of persuadable voters, more energized D base, erosion of suburban support, etc.) in his reelection bid which make it impossible for him to replicate his last victory.
*The incumbent is (badly) trailing a Democrat who has been considered "overrated" and "weak" and "likely to blow it" by many even when nothing suggests that this is the case.
*Many obsessively caution against underestimating the incumbent even when it should have been obvious that he’s pretty much been toast since day one.
*The incumbent eventually ends up self-destructing and loses about as badly as the polling averages have been suggesting.

(obviously not a flawless analogy)

To be fair, Mark imploded as badly as he did largely because of his stroke. If he was healthy, he would have likely still lost, but by a much smaller margin. In 2008 (!!!), he won reelection to his House seat by 6 points as Obama carried the district by 22.

I thought he imploded because of the Thai debate gaffe, what did the stroke have to do with his implosion?

The stroke completely messed up his brain and made it much harder for him to campaign.