UT: Y2 Analytics: Trump +10
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  UT: Y2 Analytics: Trump +10
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Author Topic: UT: Y2 Analytics: Trump +10  (Read 2150 times)
Sestak
jk2020
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« Reply #25 on: October 05, 2020, 02:34:01 PM »

Can anyone explain how this:

Women: Biden +16
Men: Trump +13

leads to a Trump +10 result?

To everyone wondering this, I'm pretty sure they misreported by reading across the row and not down the column.

It's really Biden +4 among women and Trump +25 among men.



Yeah this guy just made a mistake.
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Badger
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« Reply #26 on: October 05, 2020, 02:48:24 PM »

"There is a considerable gender gap in Utah. Male voters favor Trump by 13 points while women favor Biden by 16 points"

Trump is up 10 but Biden is winning women by 16 points?

Do more men vote in Utah? That seems odd.

There's a polygamy joke in here somewhere.....
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #27 on: October 05, 2020, 02:51:08 PM »

I believe in Bluetah.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #28 on: October 05, 2020, 02:57:57 PM »
« Edited: October 05, 2020, 03:17:40 PM by Alben Barkley »

Utah will eventually go blue like Colorado, Arizona, and Nevada. The solid blue west is within reach.

This will only happen if/when the LDS church loses its influence. (Or I guess if it moderates on social issues.) The demographics of Utah are largely favorable for Democrats outside the Mormon thing.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #29 on: October 05, 2020, 03:49:15 PM »

Looks like McMullin 2016 voters are breaking 41-40 Biden / Trump according to this poll.

Also Biden +16% among women in Utah!

McMullin himself endorsed Biden, so it's clear that many of his voters are heeding him and moving over to the Democrats this year. Hopefully Biden manages to permanently raise the Democratic floor in the state. Given that even Mitt Romney underperformed in the 2018 midterms, losing two counties (Grand and Summit) and almost losing Salt Lake County, I think that he will. Utah is not going to vote over 70% Republican again anytime soon, that much is for sure.
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new_patomic
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« Reply #30 on: October 05, 2020, 04:19:43 PM »

Can anyone explain how this:

Women: Biden +16
Men: Trump +13

leads to a Trump +10 result?

To everyone wondering this, I'm pretty sure they misreported by reading across the row and not down the column.

It's really Biden +4 among women and Trump +25 among men.


He chose the dumbest way to try and report those #s and still was wrong
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Stuart98
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« Reply #31 on: October 05, 2020, 04:19:47 PM »

Yeah I'll believe it when I see it, this pollster is very, very bad and has always shown Trump leading by narrower margins than the state's better pollsters.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #32 on: October 05, 2020, 04:46:14 PM »
« Edited: October 05, 2020, 04:49:27 PM by EastOfEden »

This will only happen if/when the LDS church loses its influence. (Or I guess if it moderates on social issues.)

Both are already happening.

Without the LDS church, Utah would be as blue as Colorado if not more so. Democrats probably have more room to grow in Davis and Utah counties than almost any other county in the country.

Still really hoping for a Romney endorsement. That could really speed things up.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #33 on: October 05, 2020, 05:02:08 PM »

September 26-October 4
1214 likely voters
MoE: 2.8%
Changes with May 9-15 Y2 Analytics poll for UtahPolicy.com and KUTV 2 News

Trump 50% (+6)
Biden 40% (-1)
Other 10% (+1 from "Other" at 8% and "Third Party Candidate" at 1%)
Undecided 1% (-4)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #34 on: October 05, 2020, 06:34:22 PM »

Just take Romney's April 2016 excoriation of Trump, have a voice-over by someone else saying "He told you so!", and then "I'm Joe Biden and I approve of this message". 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #35 on: October 05, 2020, 06:45:09 PM »

This will only happen if/when the LDS church loses its influence. (Or I guess if it moderates on social issues.)

Both are already happening.

Without the LDS church, Utah would be as blue as Colorado if not more so. Democrats probably have more room to grow in Davis and Utah counties than almost any other county in the country.

Still really hoping for a Romney endorsement. That could really speed things up.

Romney and the LDS hierarchy would kill the Trump campaign this year in Utah.

Mormons aren't bad people. Their ethical values are close to those of the American mainstream. They value education and learning. The LDS Church handled Obergfell very well. (I see same-sex rights as pro-family and homophobia as anti-family). The big point is that liberal America is in practice much more conservative in practice (think of Barack Obama) on family values than many on the Right would like to believe.

No President has more mocked Mormon values in family life than Donald Trump. What applies to any state applies to Utah: people who offend the values of the majority of people within that state deserve to lose.

Utah has been a solid-R state since 1952, when Ike courted the LDS hierarchy.   
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #36 on: October 05, 2020, 07:00:55 PM »

With Booker Utah would've been Safe D.

Utah loves the blacks, but not the gays.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #37 on: October 06, 2020, 01:58:06 AM »

Looks like McMullin 2016 voters are breaking 41-40 Biden / Trump according to this poll.

Also Biden +16% among women in Utah!

McMullin himself endorsed Biden, so it's clear that many of his voters are heeding him and moving over to the Democrats this year. Hopefully Biden manages to permanently raise the Democratic floor in the state. Given that even Mitt Romney underperformed in the 2018 midterms, losing two counties (Grand and Summit) and almost losing Salt Lake County, I think that he will. Utah is not going to vote over 70% Republican again anytime soon, that much is for sure.

Interesting... I hadn't looked at the 2018 UT-SEN GE for comparison....

So does anybody else think that Salt Lake County might actually not only be a DEM PRES win in 2020, but even possibly a DEM 50%+ County?

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Stuart98
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« Reply #38 on: October 06, 2020, 02:45:47 AM »

Looks like McMullin 2016 voters are breaking 41-40 Biden / Trump according to this poll.

Also Biden +16% among women in Utah!

McMullin himself endorsed Biden, so it's clear that many of his voters are heeding him and moving over to the Democrats this year. Hopefully Biden manages to permanently raise the Democratic floor in the state. Given that even Mitt Romney underperformed in the 2018 midterms, losing two counties (Grand and Summit) and almost losing Salt Lake County, I think that he will. Utah is not going to vote over 70% Republican again anytime soon, that much is for sure.

Interesting... I hadn't looked at the 2018 UT-SEN GE for comparison....

So does anybody else think that Salt Lake County might actually not only be a DEM PRES win in 2020, but even possibly a DEM 50%+ County?


Very easily. Obama in 2008 got 48.7% while only getting 34% of the statewide vote, and Biden should do at least 4% better than that, possibly as much as 8% better.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #39 on: October 06, 2020, 03:15:30 AM »

Looks like McMullin 2016 voters are breaking 41-40 Biden / Trump according to this poll.

Also Biden +16% among women in Utah!

McMullin himself endorsed Biden, so it's clear that many of his voters are heeding him and moving over to the Democrats this year. Hopefully Biden manages to permanently raise the Democratic floor in the state. Given that even Mitt Romney underperformed in the 2018 midterms, losing two counties (Grand and Summit) and almost losing Salt Lake County, I think that he will. Utah is not going to vote over 70% Republican again anytime soon, that much is for sure.

Interesting... I hadn't looked at the 2018 UT-SEN GE for comparison....

So does anybody else think that Salt Lake County might actually not only be a DEM PRES win in 2020, but even possibly a DEM 50%+ County?


Very easily. Obama in 2008 got 48.7% while only getting 34% of the statewide vote, and Biden should do at least 4% better than that, possibly as much as 8% better.

So now how do we look at Utah and Weber Counties within the context of 2020?

I would expect that McMullin '16 voters in UT in '16 would tend to break more heavily DEM in "Urban" parts of the State, and that Rural Mormon McMullin Voters much more likely to break Trump.

McMullin '16 voters along the Eastern Valley between the Great Lake and the Mountains, would be much more predisposed to vote Biden > Trump, I suspect, especially in the College Town of Provo.

Utah County haven't really looked at it much other than the 2018 CD results....

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=386520.msg7510652#msg7510652

Most of us around here aren't that familiar with Utah Political Geography and Political Sociology, but the struggles are and having always been fought in the streets and battles of Public Opinion, and plus there is a whole new Generation of UT-Mormon Voters that might have different opinions, since after all LDS only started to move hard DEM back in the '70s, and Reagan exploited that in the Mountain West States....

***Is McMullin Stumping for Biden in Utah ***

If not, why not?

Can't imagine it would take that many donors for a McMullin Biden endorsement Ad to be played in what are relatively inexpensive media markets of SLC....

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #40 on: October 08, 2020, 03:39:33 AM »


Not to mention Romney voting for an Article of Impeachment...

Honestly wouldn't be surprised to see McMullin voters end up something like 59-39-2 once all of the votes are counted in Utah, considering recent events...

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