If even Trafalgar only has Trump +4, Trump’s ceiling is probably winning Ohio by less than 5 percent. Before COVID, I thought Trump’s MEDIAN outcome would be winning Ohio by about 6 points in 2020, but it’s clear now that he has lost a significant number of his 2016 supporters.
It’s not out of the question that he wins by close to his 2016 margin, it is just unlikely without a late shift in the race combined with a large polling error, considering that many pollsters have adjusted their methodology since 2016. I still think OH leans R and is less likely to flip than NC and GA, but Trump winning by 8 points seems a bit outside the realistic range of outcomes. Trump +3 seems likely for the final result.
