2022 Gubernatorial matchups and ratings
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  2022 Gubernatorial matchups and ratings
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Author Topic: 2022 Gubernatorial matchups and ratings  (Read 2853 times)
Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #25 on: October 17, 2020, 07:56:01 PM »

GA is Lean D if Abrams runs. I don’t care who’s president. The 2014 Obama midterm shows GA is unfazed by who’s in office as Carter did better than Barnes.

She will have a sh**t ton of money, a more diverse GA, and control of the narrative (Kemp stole the last election).
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S019
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« Reply #26 on: October 17, 2020, 09:37:06 PM »



MA moves to Lean D, if Baker retires, Safe R, if he runs again

VT moves to Likely D, if Scott retires

NH moves to Lean R, if Sununu runs for re-election, stays as tossup if he retires (which is what I expect) or Feltes wins (don't expect this)

IA moves to Safe if Kim Reynolds runs again (expecting her to run for Senate)

AK moves to Safe R, if Dunleavy retires
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #27 on: October 17, 2020, 09:59:04 PM »



MA moves to Lean D, if Baker retires, Safe R, if he runs again

VT moves to Likely D, if Scott retires

NH moves to Lean R, if Sununu runs for re-election, stays as tossup if he retires (which is what I expect) or Feltes wins (don't expect this)

IA moves to Safe if Kim Reynolds runs again (expecting her to run for Senate)

AK moves to Safe R, if Dunleavy retires

Georgia GOV 2022 is lean Democratic not toss up.
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S019
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« Reply #28 on: October 17, 2020, 10:01:01 PM »



MA moves to Lean D, if Baker retires, Safe R, if he runs again

VT moves to Likely D, if Scott retires

NH moves to Lean R, if Sununu runs for re-election, stays as tossup if he retires (which is what I expect) or Feltes wins (don't expect this)

IA moves to Safe if Kim Reynolds runs again (expecting her to run for Senate)

AK moves to Safe R, if Dunleavy retires

Georgia GOV 2022 is lean Democratic not toss up.

Tossup is fair this far out, but I do think Kemp enters 2022 as an underdog
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #29 on: October 18, 2020, 09:32:36 AM »
« Edited: October 18, 2020, 09:37:34 AM by MR. KAYNE WEST »



Tossup AZ, IA if Scholten runs, MA, NH 4 tossups

OH Senate if Ryan runs , he can win despite DeWine winning, DeWine is more popular with Ds. Same with GA, Warnock can win despite Kemp winning, GA has reelected all of its R govs
DeSantis, Kemp, Sisolak and Evers are safe

DeSantis has Rubio running on the same ticket, PA and WI Senate races are tilt D
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Suburbia
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« Reply #30 on: November 11, 2020, 10:26:02 PM »

GA is Lean D.

Kemp is the most vulnerable Republican governor in 2022

NV is Safe D

The NVGOP's bench is weak
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Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
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« Reply #31 on: November 12, 2020, 12:19:57 AM »

Inspired by the Senate thread of the same title, I thought I'd try my luck at predicting the Gubernatorial matchups of 2022, and rating them.

I'm assuming this will be a Biden Midterm.

Alabama: Kay Ivey vs Randall Woodfin: Safe R

Alaska: Kevin Meyer vs Tom Begich: Lean R

Arizona: Karen Fann vs Kate Gallego: Tilt R

Arkansas: Leslie Rutledge vs Mark Stodola: Safe R

California: Xavier Becerra vs Eric Garcetti: Safe D, Lean Becerra

Colorado: Jared Polis vs Michael Coffman: Likely D

Connecticut: Ned Lamont vs Themis Klarides: Likely D

Florida: Ron DeSantis vs Charlie Crist: Tilt D

Georgia: Brian Kemp vs Stacy Abrams: Tilt R

Hawaii: Tulsi Gabbard vs Andria Tupola: Safe D

Idaho: Brad Little vs Ilana Rubel: Safe R

Illinois: J.B Pritzker vs Adam Kinzinger: Lean D

Iowa: Adam Gregg vs Abby Finkenauer: Tilt R

Kansas: Laura Kelly vs Jake LaTurner: Lean R

Maine: Paul LePage vs Janet Mills vs Insert Independent here. Tilt R

Maryland: Peter Franchot vs Boyd Rutherford: Lean D

Massachusetts: Charlie Baker vs Joe Kennedy III: Tilt R

Michigan: Gretchen Whitmer vs John James vs Justin Amash: Tilt D

Minnesota: Tim Walz vs Erik Paulsen: Tilt D

Nebraska: Don Stenberg vs Bob Krist: Safe R

Nevada: Steve Sisolak vs Mark Amodei: Lean  D

New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte vs Chris Pappas: Tilt R

New Mexico: Michelle Lujan Grisham vs Yvette Herell: Tilt D

New York: Andrew Cuomo vs Lee Zeldin: Likely D

Ohio: Mike DeWine vs Tim Ryan: Lean R

Oklahoma: Kevin Sitt vs J.J Dossett: Safe R

Oregon: Ellen Rosenblum vs Christine Drazan: Likely D

Pennsylvania: Josh Shapiro vs Keith Rothfus: Likely D

Rhode Island: James Langevin vs Blake Fillippi: Lean D

South Carolina: Henry McMaster vs Jamie Harrison: Tilt R

South Dakota: Kirsti Noem vs random sacrificial lamb: Safe R

Tennessee: Bill Lee vs Jim Strickland: Safe R

Texas: Greg Abbott vs Julian Castro: Tilt R

Vermont: Peter Welch vs Patricia McCoy: Safe D

Wisconsin: Tony Evers vs Rebecca Kleefisch: Tilt R

Wyoming: Mark Gordon defeats random sacrificial lamb: Safe R



I hate to say it but no way SC is tilt R. It’s not trending that wat and Harrison lost bad making up no ground so he won’t be the nominee. I’d honestly rate it safe R
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PAK Man
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« Reply #32 on: November 13, 2020, 05:46:59 PM »

No candidates and without tilt ratings, here are my initial ratings:

Alabama - Safe R
Alaska - Leans R/Tossup
Arizona - Tossup
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Likely D
Connecticut - Likely D
Florida - Leans R/Tossup
Georgia - Tossup
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Likely D (only because Pritzker is getting some blowback with COVID restrictions, otherwise he'd be Safe D)
Iowa - Leans R
Kansas - Tossup
Maine - Likely D (especially if LePage gets the GOP nod)
Maryland - Leans D/Tossup
Massachusetts - Safe R (Leans D if Baker retires)
Michigan - Leans D
Minnesota - Likely D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Leans D
New Hampshire - Likely R (Safe R if Sununu stays put and doesn't challenge Hassan)
New Mexico - Likely D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Leans R
Oklahoma - Safe R
Oregon - Likely D
Pennsylvania - Leans D
Rhode Island - Likely D
South Carolina - Safe R
South Dakota - Safe R
Tennessee - Safe R
Texas - Leans/Likely R
Vermont - Safe R (Likely D if Scott decides to challenge Leahy)
Wisconsin - Tossup
Wyoming - Safe R
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