2022 Gubernatorial matchups and ratings

[NewYorkExpress]

Inspired by the Senate thread of the same title, I thought I'd try my luck at predicting the Gubernatorial matchups of 2022, and rating them.

I'm assuming this will be a Biden Midterm.

Alabama: Kay Ivey vs Randall Woodfin: Safe R

Alaska: Kevin Meyer vs Tom Begich: Lean R

Arizona: Karen Fann vs Kate Gallego: Tilt R

Arkansas: Leslie Rutledge vs Mark Stodola: Safe R

California: Xavier Becerra vs Eric Garcetti: Safe D, Lean Becerra

Colorado: Jared Polis vs Michael Coffman: Likely D

Connecticut: Ned Lamont vs Themis Klarides: Likely D

Florida: Ron DeSantis vs Charlie Crist: Tilt D

Georgia: Brian Kemp vs Stacy Abrams: Tilt R

Hawaii: Tulsi Gabbard vs Andria Tupola: Safe D

Idaho: Brad Little vs Ilana Rubel: Safe R

Illinois: J.B Pritzker vs Adam Kinzinger: Lean D

Iowa: Adam Gregg vs Abby Finkenauer: Tilt R

Kansas: Laura Kelly vs Jake LaTurner: Lean R

Maine: Paul LePage vs Janet Mills vs Insert Independent here. Tilt R

Maryland: Peter Franchot vs Boyd Rutherford: Lean D

Massachusetts: Charlie Baker vs Joe Kennedy III: Tilt R

Michigan: Gretchen Whitmer vs John James vs Justin Amash: Tilt D

Minnesota: Tim Walz vs Erik Paulsen: Tilt D

Nebraska: Don Stenberg vs Bob Krist: Safe R

Nevada: Steve Sisolak vs Mark Amodei: Lean  D

New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte vs Chris Pappas: Tilt R

New Mexico: Michelle Lujan Grisham vs Yvette Herell: Tilt D

New York: Andrew Cuomo vs Lee Zeldin: Likely D

Ohio: Mike DeWine vs Tim Ryan: Lean R

Oklahoma: Kevin Sitt vs J.J Dossett: Safe R

Oregon: Ellen Rosenblum vs Christine Drazan: Likely D

Pennsylvania: Josh Shapiro vs Keith Rothfus: Likely D

Rhode Island: James Langevin vs Blake Fillippi: Lean D

South Carolina: Henry McMaster vs Jamie Harrison: Tilt R

South Dakota: Kirsti Noem vs random sacrificial lamb: Safe R

Tennessee: Bill Lee vs Jim Strickland: Safe R

Texas: Greg Abbott vs Julian Castro: Tilt R

Vermont: Peter Welch vs Patricia McCoy: Safe D

Wisconsin: Tony Evers vs Rebecca Kleefisch: Tilt R

Wyoming: Mark Gordon defeats random sacrificial lamb: Safe R

[President Johnson]

Why is Gavin Newsom not running for reelection here? He's obviously safe. As is Andrew Cuomo.

[Left Wing]

Joe Kenedy isn't going to run for governor if Baker is running for re-election

[NewYorkExpress]

Why is Gavin Newsom not running for reelection here? He's obviously safe. As is Andrew Cuomo.

I have Newsom running for the Senate with Kamala now VP.

Cuomo's only not safe in the sense that a Working Families nominee (if that isn't Cuomo) could draw votes from him.

Joe Kenedy isn't going to run for governor if Baker is running for re-election

Baker's going to face a tougher opponent than he got in 2018. Kennedy's got nothing to do, and as has been previously noted, it's unlikely he runs for anything other than Governor or Senator (if Warren ends up in the Cabinet.)

[Heebie Jeebie]

[Heebie Jeebie]

STATE - DEM vs REP

Safe D
HI - Josh Green vs Charles Djou
CA - Gavin Newsom vs Tom McClintock
MD - Anthony G. Brown vs Boyd Rutherford
VT - David Zuckerman vs Patricia McCoy
NY- Andrew Cuomo vs John Katko
IL - J.B. Pritzker vs Mike Bost
RI - Daniel McKee vs Dennis Algiere
CT - Ned Lamont vs Len Fasano
OR - Ellen Rosenblum vs Bev Clarno
NM - M. Lujan Grisham vs James Townsend
CO - Jared Polis vs Doug Lamborn

Likely D
ME - Matthew Dunlap vs Dana Dow
NV - Steve Sisolak vs Barbara Cegavske
MN - Tim Walz vs Tom Emmer
NH  - Dan Feltes vs Chuck Morse

Lean D
MI - Gretchen Whitmer vs Fred Upton
PA - John Fetterman vs Glenn Thompson
WI - Tony Evers vs Glenn Grothman
FL - Nikki Fried vs Ron DeSantis

Toss-Up
AZ - Katie Hobbs vs Mark Brnovich
GA - Stacey Abrams vs Brian Kemp

Lean R
OH - Andrew Ginther vs Jon Husted
TX - Sylvester Turner vs Greg Abbott
IA - Rob Sand vs Kim Reynolds

Likely R
SC - Stephen K. Benjamin vs Pamela Evette
AK - Ethan Berkowitz vs Mike Dunleavy

Safe R
MA - Deb Goldberg vs Charlie Baker
UT - Ralph Becker vs Spencer Cox
KS - Laura Kelly vs Derek Schmidt
NE - Leirion Gaylor Baird vs Mike Foley
TN - John Cooper vs Bill Lee
AR - Frank Scott Jr. vs Tim Griffin
AL - Randall Woodfin vs Will Ainsworth
SD - Jamie Smith vs Kristi Noem
ID - Lauren McLean vs Brad Little
OK - Kay Floyd vs Kevin Stitt
WY - Chris Rothfuss vs Mark Gordon

[Meatball Ron]

Some very odd takes here.

-Kelly Ayotte is not winning anything in NH.
-Tulsi Gabbard is not winning anything in HI.
-Paul LePage is not winning anything in ME with ranked choice voting.
-Charlie Baker is safe if he runs for reelection.
-Kansas and Wisconsin start as Lean D or toss-up but in no way are Kelly / Evers at an automatic disadvantage.
-If Finkenauer vacates her House seat for a high-risk statewide run, it would probably be for Senate rather than Governor (but hopefully neither).
-MLG starts in a much better position in NM than "Tilt D"

Edited because I realized RCV only applies in gubernatorial primary, not the general. Still feels exceptionally unlikely that LePage would take out Mills.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Some very odd takes here.

-Kelly Ayotte is not winning anything in NH.
-Tulsi Gabbard is not winning anything in HI.
-Paul LePage is not winning anything in ME with ranked choice voting.
-Charlie Baker is safe if he runs for reelection.
-Kansas and Wisconsin start as Lean D or toss-up but in no way are Kelly / Evers at an automatic disadvantage.
-If Finkenauer vacates her House seat for a high-risk statewide run, it would probably be for Senate rather than Governor (but hopefully neither).
-MLG starts in a much better position in NM than "Tilt D"

Edited because I realized RCV only applies in gubernatorial primary, not the general. Still feels exceptionally unlikely that LePage would take out Mills.

I think you're seriously overestimating Kelly's chances in Kansas.  She only won in 2018 because 1.) Brownback was a disaster, 2.) Trump was an anchor on Republicans all across the country, 3.) she was running against an extremist in Kobach, and 4.) Orman ran as a spoiler.  Even as an incumbent, if she faces a reasonable challenger she is going to be wiped out.

[Meatball Ron]

Some very odd takes here.

-Kelly Ayotte is not winning anything in NH.
-Tulsi Gabbard is not winning anything in HI.
-Paul LePage is not winning anything in ME with ranked choice voting.
-Charlie Baker is safe if he runs for reelection.
-Kansas and Wisconsin start as Lean D or toss-up but in no way are Kelly / Evers at an automatic disadvantage.
-If Finkenauer vacates her House seat for a high-risk statewide run, it would probably be for Senate rather than Governor (but hopefully neither).
-MLG starts in a much better position in NM than "Tilt D"

Edited because I realized RCV only applies in gubernatorial primary, not the general. Still feels exceptionally unlikely that LePage would take out Mills.

I think you're seriously overestimating Kelly's chances in Kansas.  She only won in 2018 because 1.) Brownback was a disaster, 2.) Trump was an anchor on Republicans all across the country, 3.) she was running against an extremist in Kobach, and 4.) Orman ran as a spoiler.  Even as an incumbent, if she faces a reasonable challenger she is going to be wiped out.

I think it'll be a competitive race, for sure. But given her incumbency, relative popularity, the strong possibility of a relatively neutral national environment, and GOP's tendency to shoot itself in the foot in Kansas, I just think it's a bit much to say she starts out as the underdog.

Also, not clear Orman hurt Kobach much more than Kelly. He basically ran as the Democratic candidate in the 2014 Senate election.

[President Johnson]

Why is Gavin Newsom not running for reelection here? He's obviously safe. As is Andrew Cuomo.

I have Newsom running for the Senate with Kamala now VP.

Cuomo's only not safe in the sense that a Working Families nominee (if that isn't Cuomo) could draw votes from him.

Baker's going to face a tougher opponent than he got in 2018. Kennedy's got nothing to do, and as has been previously noted, it's unlikely he runs for anything other than Governor or Senator (if Warren ends up in the Cabinet.)

I doubt Newsom has any interest in being a senator. My impression is that he enjoys being executive guy and that he wouldn't forgo a second term as chief executive of the most populous state. A lot of governors who join the senate get frustrated over the job. Especially when they were in charge of larger states.

Even if Working Families ran a candidate, I doubt he would get much more than 4-5%. Cuomo is governor as long as he wants it. I could see him joining a Biden Administration though.

[KaiserDave]

Why is everyone assuming that Scott isn't running again? Or that Zuckerman will be granted another shot?

[Tiger08]

I think McMaster gets primaried. The hard right doesn't like him because they thought his stay at home order and COVID state of emergency declaration went too long, while the center (which may actually vote in GOP primaries since the GOP primary usually decides the general election winner here) thinks he has been too lax on COVID regarding schools and the lack of a mask mandate (Molly Spearman, Republican Secretary of Education, is to McMaster's left on COVID). In other words, he doesn't have many vocal fans. He almost lost a primary to a previously little-known businessman in 2018.

[Mr.Phips]

Some very odd takes here.

-Kelly Ayotte is not winning anything in NH.
-Tulsi Gabbard is not winning anything in HI.
-Paul LePage is not winning anything in ME with ranked choice voting.
-Charlie Baker is safe if he runs for reelection.
-Kansas and Wisconsin start as Lean D or toss-up but in no way are Kelly / Evers at an automatic disadvantage.
-If Finkenauer vacates her House seat for a high-risk statewide run, it would probably be for Senate rather than Governor (but hopefully neither).
-MLG starts in a much better position in NM than "Tilt D"

Edited because I realized RCV only applies in gubernatorial primary, not the general. Still feels exceptionally unlikely that LePage would take out Mills.

Hopefully Finkenauer knows that she has no chance of winning statewide in a Biden midterm.

[Red Wall]

Alabama (Ivey) Safe R

Alaska (Open) Likely R

Arizona (Open) Lean R

Arkansas (Open) Safe R

California (Newsom) Safe D

Colorado (Polis) Tossup to tilt D

Connecticut (Lamont) Tossup

Florida (DeSantis) Likely R

Georgia (Kemp) Likely R

Hawaii (Open) Safe D

Idaho (Little) Safe R

Illinois (Pritzker) Lean D

Iowa (Reynolds) Safe R (Open) Likely R

Kansas (Kelly) Likely R

Maine (Mills) Lean R

Maryland (Open) Lean D

Massachusetts (Baker) Safe R

Michigan (Whitmer) Lean R

Minnesota (Walz) Tossup

Nebraska (Open) Safe R

Nevada: (Sisolak) Tossup

New Hampshire (Sununu) Safe R (Open) Lean R

New Mexico (Lujan Grisham) Tossup to Tilt D

New York (Cuomo) Likely D

Ohio (DeWine) Safe R

Oklahoma (Sitt) Safe R

Oregon (Open) Lean D

Pennsylvania (Open) Lean R

Rhode Island (Open) Lean D

South Carolina (McMaster) Safe R

South Dakota (Noem) Safe R

Tennessee (Lee) Safe R

Texas (Abbott) Likely  R

Vermont (Scott) Safe R (Open) Likely D

Wisconsin (Evers) Lean R

Wyoming (Gordon) Safe R

[jamestroll]

There is no world in which Brian Kemp will win reelection.

I also do not believe Whitmer is as vulnerable as made out to be.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

No Tossups
Likely R
IA
TX
VT- Lean D if Scott runs for Senate
Lean R
AK
FL
NH(Tilt R with Ayotte, Safe R with Sununu, tilt D w/o ayotte)
Tilt R
PA
RI(flip)- Trending R, Raimondo is unpopular
WI(flip)- Rojo the clown woos the wcw by ranting about Kenosha riots
Tossup Tilt D
AZ(flip)- I know McSally is a bad candidate, but it appears AZ is going to be harder to win then we thought. If C0vid is still a thing, turnout will likely be higher and that hurts GOP
GA(flip)- I think Georgia's trens will be too much for Kemp. Hes not doomed per say but if I had to pick a winner it would be the democrat.
MI- Whitmer isn't out of the clear but her approvals are decent now so even when they undoubtedly decline I think she still isn't doomed. But Candice Miller would be tough to beat.
OR- I suspect there will be a backlash to the rioting. But with the polarized climate, it's going to be hard for republicans to win a blue state they couldn't even win in 2010/2014.
Lean D
CT
KS- Kelly will be fine as long as her approvals are good. Kansas is no longer republican enough to throw out a dem gov just for being a democrat.
ME
MN
Likely D
NV
NM
Safe D
CO
IL
NY
MD(flip)

[Common Sense Atlantan]

There is no way that Stacey Abrams runs again.

[JMT]

This is assuming a Biden midterm:


Alabama: Kay Ivey vs ?: Safe R

Alaska: Mike Dunleavy vs Tom Begich: Lean R

Arizona: David Schweikert vs Greg Stanton: Tilt D

Arkansas: Sarah Sanders vs ?: Safe R

California: Gavin Newsom vs Kevin Faulconer: Safe D

Colorado: Jared Polis vs Ken Buck: Likely D

Connecticut: Ned Lamont vs Erin Stewart: Tossup

Florida: Ron DeSantis vs Gwen Graham: Tossup

Georgia: Brian Kemp vs Stacey Abrams: Lean R

Hawaii: Josh Green vs Andria Tupola: Safe D

Idaho: Janice McGeachin vs ?: Safe R

Illinois: J.B Pritzker vs Evelyn Sanguinetti: Lean D

Iowa: Kim Reynolds vs Rob Sand: Tilt R

Kansas: Laura Kelly vs Jeff Colyer: Tossup

Maine: Janet Mills vs Paul LePage. Lean D

Maryland: David Trone vs Boyd Rutherford: Lean D

Massachusetts: Maura Healey vs Karyn Polito: Lean D

Michigan: Gretchen Whitmer vs John James: Lean D

Minnesota: Tim Walz vs Mike Lindell: Likely D

Nebraska: Mike Foley vs Bob Krist: Safe R

Nevada: Steve Sisolak vs Barbara Cegavske: Lean D

New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte vs Joyce Craig: Lean R

New Mexico: Michelle Lujan Grisham vs Claire Chase: Lean D

New York: Andrew Cuomo vs Marc Molinaro: Safe D

Ohio: Mike DeWine vs Nan Whaley: Likely R

Oklahoma: Kevin Sitt vs ?: Safe R

Oregon: Shemia Fagan vs ?: Likely D

Pennsylvania: Josh Shapiro vs Brian Fitzpatrick: Tilt D

Rhode Island: Jorge Elorza vs Blake Fillippi: Safe D

South Carolina: Henry McMaster vs Mandy Powers Norrell: Likely R

South Dakota: Kirsti Noem vs Billie Sutton: Lean R

Tennessee: Bill Lee vs ?: Safe R

Texas: Greg Abbott vs Beto O'Rourke: Lean R

Vermont: Phil Scott vs Rebecca Holcombe: Safe R

Wisconsin: Tony Evers vs Ron Johnson: Tilt R

Wyoming: Mark Gordon vs ?: Safe R

[JMT]

Why is Gavin Newsom not running for reelection here? He's obviously safe. As is Andrew Cuomo.

I have Newsom running for the Senate with Kamala now VP.

Cuomo's only not safe in the sense that a Working Families nominee (if that isn't Cuomo) could draw votes from him.

Baker's going to face a tougher opponent than he got in 2018. Kennedy's got nothing to do, and as has been previously noted, it's unlikely he runs for anything other than Governor or Senator (if Warren ends up in the Cabinet.)

I doubt Newsom has any interest in being a senator. My impression is that he enjoys being executive guy and that he wouldn't forgo a second term as chief executive of the most populous state. A lot of governors who join the senate get frustrated over the job. Especially when they were in charge of larger states.

Even if Working Families ran a candidate, I doubt he would get much more than 4-5%. Cuomo is governor as long as he wants it. I could see him joining a Biden Administration though.

Agreed that Newsom would rather be Governor, but he will be term limited in 2026, and I could see him running for Senate at some point. If I had to guess...

-Kamala Harris gets elected VP this year, and Newsom appoints someone to her seat that will run for the full term (I predict he’ll appoint Alex Padilla).
-Newsom runs for re-election in 2022 and wins.
-If Feinstein retires in 2024, Newsom runs for her Senate seat and wins. If Feinstein doesn’t retire, or Newsom loses the Senate race, Newsom serves the rest of his term as Governor and either gears up to run for president some day, or goes to work in the private sector.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Dems gain Arizona, Maryland, New Hampshire (open when Sununu goes for Senate), Vermont (open), and Georgia
GOP gains Pennsylvania and defeats one of Whitmer/Evers/Kelly

[OSR stands with Israel]

Dems gain MD, VT(If Scott runs for senate)

GOP Gains: PA, WI, KS and Im gonna go bold and say OR(Knute defeats Fagan)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

High Turnout
D- +AZ, GA, MD
R- +WI, MI, PA, RI, OR
Low turnout
D- GA, MD
R- PA, WI, RI, OR

[Suburbia]

GOP gains WI, PA, OR

Democrats gain GA, AZ

GOP keeps MA, MD and VT

[smoltchanov]

GOP gains WI, PA, OR

Democrats gain GA, AZ

GOP keeps MA, MD and VT

I don't see GOP holding Maryland without Hogan...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

High Turnout
D- +AZ, GA, MD
R- +WI, MI, PA, RI, OR
Low turnout
D- GA, MD
R- PA, WI, RI, OR

Dems aren't losing OR