CA-22 - Strategies 360/Arballo internal (D): Nunes +5%

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CA-22 - Strategies 360/Arballo internal (D): Nunes +5%

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Topic: CA-22 - Strategies 360/Arballo internal (D): Nunes +5% (Read 737 times)

TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp

Posts: 9,776

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CA-22 - Strategies 360/Arballo internal (D): Nunes +5%

« on: October 07, 2020, 04:44:42 AM »

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/519903-democrat-arballo-gains-on-nunes-internal-poll

"Late July":
Nunes (R-inc.) 51%
Arballo (D) 42%

September 29 - October 1
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Nunes (R-inc.) 51%
Arballo (D) 46%

Nunes won 52.8%-47.2% in 2018.

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Stuart98
Jr. Member

Posts: 1,783

Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -5.83

	Re: CA-22 - Strategies 360/Arballo internal (D): Nunes +5% « Reply #1 on: October 07, 2020, 04:47:45 AM »
	« Edited: October 07, 2020, 05:42:40 AM by Stuart98 »

Likely R, the CA GOP probably hasn't quite eroded enough for Nunes to lose yet but he could be in for quite a scare.

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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp

Posts: 9,776

Re: CA-22 - Strategies 360/Arballo internal (D): Nunes +5%

« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2020, 06:35:01 AM »

538 has the "July" numbers as a June 23-29 poll of 400 likely voters

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Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star

Posts: 26,806

Re: CA-22 - Strategies 360/Arballo internal (D): Nunes +5%

« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2020, 08:29:27 AM »

Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on October 07, 2020, 06:35:01 AM

538 has the "July" numbers as a June 23-29 poll of 400 likely voters

And they don't have the current numbers at all.

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Storr
Junior Chimp

Posts: 7,191

Re: CA-22 - Strategies 360/Arballo internal (D): Nunes +5%

« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2020, 02:49:38 PM »

Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 07, 2020, 08:29:27 AM

Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on October 07, 2020, 06:35:01 AM

538 has the "July" numbers as a June 23-29 poll of 400 likely voters

And they don't have the current numbers at all.

Nunes losing would be so satisfying.

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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar

Posts: 30,303

Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

Re: CA-22 - Strategies 360/Arballo internal (D): Nunes +5%

« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2020, 04:16:54 PM »

This is the kind of district that I would unironically say "isn't there yet", but depending on what happens in redistricting, I could see a newer version of this district being competitive in 2024 and beyond.

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Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp

Posts: 6,213

Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

	Re: CA-22 - Strategies 360/Arballo internal (D): Nunes +5% « Reply #6 on: October 07, 2020, 05:23:38 PM »
	« Edited: October 07, 2020, 05:26:47 PM by Monstro Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia »

I think Nunes would've been in a world of hurt this year if Dems didn't take the House in 2018.

A big aspect of targeting him then was his power as chair of the House Intelligence Committee. Now, he's just "That wacky Republican who sued a Twitter account about his cow".

Similarly with Duncan Hunter and CA-50, though that one may have a long-term more upside which go beyond the candidates.

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