Philly suburbs: Biden +26 & shy Trump voters #analysis

[VAR]

Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery counties
Sep 23-25, 694 RV, MoE: 3.5%

Biden 61%
Trump 35%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/12Ro7RoRKx0mSacdnPGxiRD08zvs7ouZt/view?usp=sharing

#analysis here

Clinton won here 55-41.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The MoE is actually 3.7%

[LimoLiberal]

With a uniform swing, this would result in:

Delaware: Biden +34
Chester: Biden +22
Montgomery: Biden +33
Bucks: Biden +13

[wbrocks67]

Hillary 2016: +13.5
Wolf 2018: +29
Casey 2018: +24.4
Biden 2020: +26

If Biden is doing better than *Casey* did here, then those +9 statewide polls are definitely believable.

[Oryxslayer]

Reminder that is region voted 64-35 for Wolf in 2018. He got:

Bucks: 58.5 - 40
Montgomery: 67 - 31.5
Delaware: 66.7 - 32
Chester: 61 - 37

[Person Man]

Hillary 2016: +13.5
Wolf 2018: +29
Casey 2018: +24.4
Biden 2020: +26

If Biden is doing better than *Casey* did here, then those +9 statewide polls are definitely believable.

All he has to do is to come out as pro-life, then. Is Bob Casey really prolife anymore? Are the cities keeping up with the parts of I-80 where a rest stop is a portapotty a foot from the interstate?

[wbrocks67]

Reminder that is region voted 64-35 for Wolf in 2018. He got:

Bucks: 58.5 - 40
Montgomery: 67 - 31.5
Delaware: 66.7 - 32
Chester: 61 - 37

I would not be surprised if Trump fell to the 20s in Montco.

[TML]

Hillary 2016: +13.5
Wolf 2018: +29
Casey 2018: +24.4
Biden 2020: +26

If Biden is doing better than *Casey* did here, then those +9 statewide polls are definitely believable.

All he has to do is to come out as pro-life, then. Is Bob Casey really prolife anymore? Are the cities keeping up with the parts of I-80 where a rest stop is a portapotty a foot from the interstate?

That strategy may have been good in 2006 but is definitely obsolete in 2020, as it would only serve to dispirit the Democratic base.

[wbrocks67]

Hillary 2016: +13.5
Wolf 2018: +29
Casey 2018: +24.4
Biden 2020: +26

If Biden is doing better than *Casey* did here, then those +9 statewide polls are definitely believable.

All he has to do is to come out as pro-life, then. Is Bob Casey really prolife anymore? Are the cities keeping up with the parts of I-80 where a rest stop is a portapotty a foot from the interstate?

That strategy may have been good in 2006 but is definitely obsolete in 2020, as it would only serve to dispirit the Democratic base.

Also Casey isn't pro-life politically. He's pro life *personally* but is fine with other people being pro-choice.

[The Mikado]

Bob Casey Jr is the kind of "pro-life" person who gets an 84% on his voting record from NARAL.

Similar to Tim Kaine, notorious pro-lifer with a 100% scorecard from NARAL.

I still remember people angry in 2016 that Hillary Clinton picked a pro-life running mate. None of them took a second to figure out what that actually meant.

[Suburbia]

Hillary 2016: +13.5
Wolf 2018: +29
Casey 2018: +24.4
Biden 2020: +26

If Biden is doing better than *Casey* did here, then those +9 statewide polls are definitely believable.

All he has to do is to come out as pro-life, then. Is Bob Casey really prolife anymore? Are the cities keeping up with the parts of I-80 where a rest stop is a portapotty a foot from the interstate?

That strategy may have been good in 2006 but is definitely obsolete in 2020, as it would only serve to dispirit the Democratic base.

Democrats like Casey still appeal to the Pennsyltucky area. You need Pennsyltucky

[President Johnson]

If everything else stayed the same from 2016 (which it won't), this shift alone would put Joe Biden over the top in the state I guess. But he'll do well in a number of other party of the state as well.