New York (Siena): Biden +32

[slothdem]

Trump should be doing better in Long Island, Orange, Suffern...that's his white FDNY/NYPD cop base is, it should be at least tied

Assuming "the suburbs" are Nassau/Suffolk/Westchester/Rockland then Clinton won this group by 8%. Given the trend of educated voters going especially hard for Biden (and even Suffolk is better educated than the nation as a whole) you'd absolutely expect a swing of about six points.