IA-WHO 13/RABA Research: Greenfield +12 (user search)
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  IA-WHO 13/RABA Research: Greenfield +12 (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA-WHO 13/RABA Research: Greenfield +12  (Read 3354 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: October 01, 2020, 04:11:19 PM »

Holy guacamole.

Clearly an outlier but the prez topline is only Biden +2, so it's not like basics of this poll are super flawed. Even if you take like 7 off of Greenfield's margin, she's still up a healthy 5.

Need to see more polls, but one wonders if the bottom is falling out for Trump *and* Senate Republicans. Greenfield has led in every single high quality recent poll.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2020, 04:12:05 PM »

This makes me sad because I know feel like that Biden leading poll is an outlier too

Selzer had it tied and NYT/Siena had it Biden +3. If anything, this is more in line (prez at least) and the Trump +5 polls are more of an outlier. I would even go as far as to say Monmouth is an expected outlier considering they've had an odd R-skew this cycle for a majority of their state polls.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2020, 04:12:40 PM »

Also, this has Greenfield high among Independents. That would not be a surprising result if Indies soured on Ernst, either.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2020, 04:21:21 PM »

If this doesn't push Greenfield ahead on the 538 forecast....
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2020, 04:23:22 PM »

Maybe we could have a better balanced discussion than just people coming in and yelling outlier!

This poll IS an outlier, but the fact remains that Greenfield appears to be pulling away a bit and Ernst has done herself no favors this entire cycle.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2020, 05:02:08 PM »

The noteworthy point here isn't the topline, it's the fact that this same poll has Biden only +2.

This. So Greenfield is substantially over performing Biden and Ernst, underperforming Trump
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2020, 06:10:06 PM »

538 still has Ernst as a slight favorite, but Greenfield shot all the way up to 57c on predictit.

538 is being ridiculous with incumbents. Greenfield has literally led the last 7 out of 8 polls.
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