Could Montana be a swing state or blue state in future elections?

[Real Texan Politics]

Montana is likely to go to Trump by 10 or even single digits this year, plus it's competitive at both the house and senate level right now. While traditionally a republican stronghold, it has been within 10 before in presidential elections including 2008 where McCain won by 2.38%, and likely this year where JHK expert ratings have it as Trump +9.1. If this continues, could we see a blue Montana in future presidential elections?

[Hope For A New Era]

Maybe. It's a bit different from other left-shifting states in the west and south because there's really not a whole lot of demographic change happening. The state has been and continues to be very white. It's also less rural-urban polarized than most states.

So - we'll see. I could easily see it going dramatically left, dramatically right, or not moving at all from here.

[Alcibiades]

In some ways Montana is in the same position as it has been for the last several decades: a clearly Republican state at the presidential level (although with Democrats capable of winning it in a very good year), but highly competitive at the state level. Of course, until c. 2010 there were lots of states like this, but MT seems to be the only state which has remained in this position. Democrats have generally held up better in rural areas than elsewhere, and interestingly, Deer Lodge County could be called the last old-school New Deal Democratic county; at any rate it was the only county which was over 80% white and less than 20% college-educated to vote for Hillary in 2016.

So, going forward, I expect MT to remain in hold roughly the same lean as it does now. The main way I can see it going blue is with significant migration from California and other blue states, which is not inconceivable, but far from a given.

[TML]

I don't know for sure, but you could make a case for it by pointing to the fact that Gallatin County is the fastest-growing county in the state, and this county has voted for Democrats in most statewide elections after 2006.

[Agonized-Statism]

If the parties themselves change or a big tech company sets up shop there, or maybe if there's some kind of major climate disaster.

[rhg2052]

Perhaps. It already has more of a Democratic presence than its neighbors at the state level, and while rural white voters aren't coming back to the Democrats at a great rate any time soon, I could see the next region of the US to hit a population boom (and therefore a D trend) being small/mid-size Mountain West cities like Boise, Cheyenne, Missoula, Helena, Bozeman as people leave the West Coast and larger metros like Denver become too large & expensive.

[MABA 2020]

Unlikely, although it's unlikely that dems have been so competitive there so...

[Hope For A New Era]

I could see the next region of the US to hit a population boom (and therefore a D trend) being small/mid-size Mountain West cities like Boise, Cheyenne, Missoula, Helena, Bozeman as people leave the West Coast and larger metros like Denver become too large & expensive.

It's already happening. At least, it certainly is in Boise.

And Cheyenne will probably be considered part of the Front Range within 10 years.