Data for Progress: Biden +4 in AZ, -5 in IA, +14 in ME, -5 in SC

[VAR]

AZ
Biden 50%
Trump 46%

https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-2/dfp_psp_AZ_Senate_week2.pdf

IA
Trump 50%
Biden 45%

https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-2/dfp_psp_IA_Senate_week2.pdf

ME
Biden 55%
Trump 41%

https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-2/dfp_psp_ME_Senate_Week2.pdf

SC
Trump 50%
Biden 45%

https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-2/dfp_psp_SC_Senate_week2.pdf

[VAR]

#TossupSC was fun while it lasted.

[Skye]

#TossupSC was fun while it lasted.

We had a YouGov this week as well showing Trump with a 10-point lead. Throw it with the Quinnipiac Trump +1 poll and you get... well, this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All Biden needs is AZ anyways, Greenfield still leading in this poll and Harrison is tied

[Buzz]

This seems right in the money other than I still don’t believe SC will be that close

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's strange we haven't heard from MT Treasurer since Trump flubbed the last debate, he said Collins, Ernst, Daines were all R leaning and PA isn't that hard left leaning and it is

[Tender Branson]

IA is nasty (compared to 2008/12), but there’s still hope they’ll dump Trump.

[Devils30]

IA is just more rural, even with Biden outrunning Hillary in working class areas he will not reach Obama's numbers in these places. Even Ohio has three large metro areas. That said, the Selzer poll that is in between this and the NYT is pretty high quality stuff.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 23-28, 2020

The July 24-August 2 polls for presidential ballots have two-way and four-way polls so I'm using the AZ one here even though I used the more up-to-date DFED poll for comparisons in the Senate race (as that only has a two-way ballot for the presidential race).

AZ
https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-2/dfp_psp_AZ_Senate_week2.pdf

808 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%
First set of changes with the July 24-August 2 poll (not for a partisan sponsor)
Second set of changes with September 15-22 poll (for the Defend Students Action Fund)

Standard ballot:
Biden 49% (+4, +4)
Trump 45% (+2, -1)
Jorgensen 1% (-1, not included in previous poll)
Hawkins 0% (-1, not included in previous poll)
Not sure 4% (-4, -6)

Two-way race:
Biden 50% (+3, +5)
Trump 46% (+2, n/c)
Not sure 4% (-4, -6)

IA
https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-2/dfp_psp_IA_Senate_week2.pdf

743 likely voters
MoE: 3.6%
Changes with July 24-August 2 poll (not for a partisan sponsor)

Standard ballot:
Trump 47% (+3)
Biden 44% (+2)
Hawkins 1%  (n/c)
Jorgensen 1% (-2)
Not sure 6% (-4)

Two-way race:
Trump 50% (+4)
Biden 45% (n/c)
Not sure 5% (-4)

ME
https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-2/dfp_psp_ME_Senate_Week2.pdf

718 likely voters
MoE: 3.7%
Changes with July 24-August 2 poll (not for a partisan sponsor)

Standard ballot:
Biden 53% (+4)
Trump 39% (-3)
Jorgensen 2% (+1)
Hawkins 1% (n/c)
Not sure 5% (-2)

Two-way race:
Biden 55% (+2)
Trump 41% (-2)
Not sure 4% (n/c)

SC
https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-2/dfp_psp_SC_Senate_week2.pdf

824 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%

Standard ballot:
Trump 47%
Biden 43%
Hawkins 1%
Jorgensen 1%
Not sure 8%

Two-way race:
Trump 50%
Biden 45%
Not sure 5%

[wbrocks67]

The AZ, SC, and ME top lines look about right. IA seems a bit R compared to what we've seen, but interesting that Greenfield is running ahead of Biden again.

[Podgy the Bear]

If Greenfield can pull it out in IA, that's what really matters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst and McSally are gonna lose by going down on voting for Barrett, and they don't care like Cory Gardner

[Gass3268]

DFP had AZ at Trump +1 at September 15-22. So this is a 6 point swing.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

This is probably about right for SC. Trump will likely win here, but it will be under 10%.

[wbrocks67]

DFP had AZ at Trump +1 at September 15-22. So this is a 6 point swing.

Which makes sense. Their Trump +1 was a total outlier (as well as the ABC/Wapo one)

[Sirius_]

#TossupSC was fun while it lasted.

Still the same margin as Iowa.

[Alben Barkley]

#TossupSC was fun while it lasted.

Trump being only up by 5 is still really bad for him there. And he’s only at 47 (whereas Biden is at 50 in AZ.) Still within striking distance and possible Biden wins it in a blowout.

[DrScholl]

The Iowa numbers are out of step with other recent polls. And I believe that if the Senate race in South Carolina is that close then the presidential race is close since that much ticket splitting is unlikely. I think that Quinnipiac is on to something that same way they were in VA-Gov 2017.