OR-Civiqs/Daily Kos: Biden +17
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  OR-Civiqs/Daily Kos: Biden +17
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Author Topic: OR-Civiqs/Daily Kos: Biden +17  (Read 1711 times)
Gass3268
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« on: September 30, 2020, 06:42:55 PM »

Biden (D) 56% (+17)
Trump (R) 39%

Source
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2020, 06:44:29 PM »

Anyone going to call for a wellness check on Nate Silver?
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OBD
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« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2020, 06:45:01 PM »

Looks about right.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2020, 06:45:19 PM »

Another poll of Oregon!!!!!

Haven't had a chance to look at the numbers yet but....+17% looks like a good starting point regardless of MoE...
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #4 on: September 30, 2020, 06:46:00 PM »

Wow, if red state Oregon is Biden + 17, that must mean blue states like Alabama and Mississippi are Biden + 20 or better
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WD
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« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2020, 06:46:44 PM »

Good to see.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2020, 06:47:37 PM »

But I thought the riots were going to hand Oregon to Trump
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2020, 06:49:30 PM »

Sounds right.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2020, 06:51:39 PM »

"Here's how Trump can still win Oregon."
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #9 on: September 30, 2020, 06:52:01 PM »

Hopefully this poll will put a stop to the absurd amount of 538 maps where Oregon goes to Trump. Just this morning I saw one where Biden wins the whole deep south (AR and AL included) but loses Oregon.
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Spark
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« Reply #10 on: September 30, 2020, 06:52:42 PM »

Spicy!
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #11 on: September 30, 2020, 06:55:39 PM »

This poll has Biden win the "White Vote" 56-39 %

This poll has Biden winning "Non-College Whites" 50-45%

This poll has Biden winning all age brackets and with a 55-44 (+11% D) margin among voters 65+

Biden up almost 2:1 in "suburban areas" and Trump is only up 52-44 in "rural areas" (+8% R).


Anyway folks choose to slice and dice it, there is nothing here which appears to be positive for Mr. Trump and the Oregon Republican Party in General...

It's only gonna get worse with the "Proud Boy" comments which Trump made at last Night's debate...
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Kamala’s side hoe
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« Reply #12 on: September 30, 2020, 06:59:07 PM »

This poll has Biden win the "White Vote" 56-39 %

This poll has Biden winning "Non-College Whites" 50-45%

This poll has Biden winning all age brackets and with a 55-44 (+11% D) margin among voters 65+

Biden up almost 2:1 in "suburban areas" and Trump is only up 52-44 in "rural areas" (+8% R).


Anyway folks choose to slice and dice it, there is nothing here which appears to be positive for Mr. Trump and the Oregon Republican Party in General...

It's only gonna get worse with the "Proud Boy" comments which Trump made at last Night's debate...


It also has “Hispanic: Biden 51% Trump 45%”
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #13 on: September 30, 2020, 07:03:49 PM »

B-b-but muh Portland riots 😢
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Splash
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« Reply #14 on: September 30, 2020, 07:10:59 PM »


Just wait for the 'faux Trump endorsement from the Sheriff of Portland' bounce!
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Rand
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« Reply #15 on: September 30, 2020, 07:20:27 PM »

Us Oregonians know what’s up.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #16 on: September 30, 2020, 07:22:46 PM »

Trump will make up for his loss in OR with a big win in NJ.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #17 on: September 30, 2020, 07:26:54 PM »

This poll has Biden win the "White Vote" 56-39 %

This poll has Biden winning "Non-College Whites" 50-45%

This poll has Biden winning all age brackets and with a 55-44 (+11% D) margin among voters 65+

Biden up almost 2:1 in "suburban areas" and Trump is only up 52-44 in "rural areas" (+8% R).


Anyway folks choose to slice and dice it, there is nothing here which appears to be positive for Mr. Trump and the Oregon Republican Party in General...

It's only gonna get worse with the "Proud Boy" comments which Trump made at last Night's debate...


It also has “Hispanic: Biden 51% Trump 45%”

Sure saw that as well, but quite frankly Latino voters are a small sliver of the electorate in OR, so MoE and margins of minor sub-samples

(Despite the Latino somewhat decent overall 12.3% of the total population, this also includes contract workers in the Agricultural and Food Processing facilities of NE Oregon, Eastern Oregon, and even within the Willamette Valley who are non-citizens)...

If this were a poll of Latinos Voters in Marion County, then I might be a bit concerned...

Key point, and I suspect you are driving the train that direction, is that within Oregon the overwhelming majority of voters are White, supplemented with smaller numbers of Latinos, AAPIs, and African-Americans...

Basically poll of White Voters in Oregon shows Biden performing extremely well, even among demographics that typically should be performing much stronger for DJT....

Trump did nothing to deal with Canada and the "Trade Wars" involving industries from Dairy, Timber, Fishing, Cranberry Farmers, where he pledged Oregonian Republicans in '16 when running against Kasich that he would protect...

Columbia County could likely flip if these numbers are true....


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Crumpets
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« Reply #18 on: September 30, 2020, 07:28:58 PM »

538 has yet to add this to their database. Clearly trying to find a way to adjust this to Trump +5 or prove that Civiqs has fabricated all of their data.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #19 on: September 30, 2020, 07:30:04 PM »

September 26-29, 2020
944 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%

Someone else 3%
Unsure 2%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #20 on: September 30, 2020, 07:39:10 PM »

I'm mildly disappointed ballot initiatives weren't polled here (the drug decriminalisation one would be an incredibly major reform if it was approved).
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #21 on: September 30, 2020, 07:59:32 PM »

I'm mildly disappointed ballot initiatives weren't polled here (the drug decriminalisation one would be an incredibly major reform if it was approved).

Agreed...

Shrooms for Mental Health initiative will likely pass, with a Combat Vet with PTSD being the figurehead of the mvmt...

Shrooms for personal usage may well pass.... they were decriminalized in Oregon until sometime around the mid '80s from my old man memory...

Decriminalization of "hard drugs" has effectively already been happening within Oregon when it comes to personal possession of small quantities of Meth, Coke, Heroin, Acid, X, etc... and how local DA's choose to move forward on charges.

What the "decriminalization" ballot is effectively design to do, is recognize what we all know:

The overwhelming majority of those consuming hard drugs are addicts, drug addiction needs help and diversion and not a permanent criminal Felony record.

Me and my spouse are both White folks ranging from mid '40s to late '50s, and have seen a lot in life when it comes to Drug Addiction and Abuse and the scourge which disproportionately impacted communities decimated WWC parts of Downstate OR when the Timber Mills first started to shut down back in the early '90s....

Vote for decriminalization is not a vote for "Drugs being sold in State Run OLCC stores"....

So many Oregonians have seen the wreckage and decimation of an entire generation of "No Hope... no Future Oregonians" that hit the "crack-pipe" (In OR meaning dancing with Crystal Meth), but these are our Sons and Daughters, Brothers and Sisters, Aunts and Uncles, and why would we oppose treating hard drug addiction as anything other than what it is.... a medical and mental health issue where anybody who can and does need help should get it, rather than spending 5 Years "Upstate" or over in Pendleton, or any other of the Oregon Correctional Facilities (Not even touching the Federal Prison outside of Newberg)....
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #22 on: September 30, 2020, 09:00:21 PM »

Hmmm... was Clinton +11 2016 but with yuge 3rd party vote.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #23 on: September 30, 2020, 10:22:59 PM »

Hmmm... was Clinton +11 2016 but with yuge 3rd party vote.

LBT, GRN, Write-In Voters (Heavily Sanders and lesser extent McMullin / Romney) will likely follow patterns we have seen elsewhere...

Basically like I and many other Oregon Posters have been positing is that 3rd Party Voters will break heavily Biden in 2020....

Any City where Trump hit less than 50% is likely a "flip-town"....

Might not be enough to flip Jackson County after the fires destroyed Talent & Phoenix, plus doubt that students are back in school in Ashland...

Heavily LDS Eagle Point got hit hard as well, but it's all gonna come down to Medford in 2020....

Keizer Oregon and Albany Oregon are Tilt-Biden in my book...

We will see what happens in Grants Pass in 2020, but is likely the largest City in Oregon to vote for Trump as PRES for re-elect in 2020....

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« Reply #24 on: September 30, 2020, 10:52:23 PM »

The Portland craziness will help Trump a little, but the state is just fundamentally much more favorable territory for Biden and that can't be overcome.
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