A month out, what are you congressional forecasts?

[ProgressiveModerate]

A month out, what are you congressional forecasts?

I'll share mine in just a bit, but I'm curious as to what others have to share first

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

D+5 on Senate and D+10 or so in the House. This is net gains as I have Jones and Peterson losing

[free my dawg]

Dems flip CO, AZ, ME, NC, IA, GA-Special, and SC, but lose AL.

Dems flip AZ-06, CA-25, GA-7, IN-05, MO-02, NE-2, NC-2, NC-6, NY-2, TX-3, TX-10, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, but lose MN-7.

[Mr.Phips]

D+5 on Senate and D+10 or so in the House. This is net gains as I have Jones and Peterson losing

This is pretty much what I am at. 

[Stuart98]

[ProgressiveModerate]

Mine:

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems will have the trifecta come Jan, we can have a divided Congress or a mandate Congress

[Ferguson97]

House


Senate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am optimistic but the conltinued back and forth arguing between Rs and Pelosi are gonna affect the races. It will be helpful if D's pass the 1200 stimulus and provide 300 in relief for unemployment. States are tapped out in unemployment funds, that won't last forever. It's not UBI

[MATTROSE94]

For the Senate, I feel that the Democrats will gain Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia Regular, Georgia-Special, Montana, Texas, and South, but lose Alabama and Michigan. Kansas and Alaska might come into play as well.

For the House of Representatives, I predict that the Democrats will pick up AZ-06, AZ-8, CA-1, CA-4, CA-8, CA-22, CA-25, CA-42, CA-50, CO-3, GA-1, GA-7, GA-9, IL-12, IL-13, IL-16, NE-2, NC-2, NC-6, NV-2, NY-1, NY-2, OH-14, OR-2, TX-3, TX-10, TX-14, TX-21, TX-22, TX-23, TX-24, TX-25, VA-1, VA-5, WA-3, and WA-5, but lose KY-3, FL-21, MN-7, NY-11, TN-5, and WI-3

[Roll Roons]

For the Senate, I feel that the Democrats will gain Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia Regular, Georgia-Special, Montana, Texas, and South, but lose Alabama and Michigan. Kansas and Alaska might come into play as well.

For the House of Representatives, I predict that the Democrats will pick up AZ-06, AZ-8, CA-1, CA-4, CA-8, CA-22, CA-25, CA-42, CA-50, CO-3, GA-1, GA-7, GA-9, IL-12, IL-13, IL-16, NE-2, NC-2, NC-6, NV-2, NY-1, NY-2, OH-14, OR-2, TX-3, TX-10, TX-14, TX-21, TX-22, TX-23, TX-24, TX-25, VA-1, VA-5, WA-3, and WA-5, but lose KY-3, FL-21, MN-7, NY-11, TN-5, and WI-3

Send me some of that stuff you're smoking.

[NewYorkExpress]

[Stuart98]

For the Senate, I feel that the Democrats will gain Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia Regular, Georgia-Special, Montana, Texas, and South, but lose Alabama and Michigan. Kansas and Alaska might come into play as well.

For the House of Representatives, I predict that the Democrats will pick up AZ-06, AZ-8, CA-1, CA-4, CA-8, CA-22, CA-25, CA-42, CA-50, CO-3, GA-1, GA-7, GA-9, IL-12, IL-13, IL-16, NE-2, NC-2, NC-6, NV-2, NY-1, NY-2, OH-14, OR-2, TX-3, TX-10, TX-14, TX-21, TX-22, TX-23, TX-24, TX-25, VA-1, VA-5, WA-3, and WA-5, but lose KY-3, FL-21, MN-7, NY-11, TN-5, and WI-3

Visualized:


Senate seems plausible enough, but house is nonsense. KY03, TN05, and FL21 each voted for Clinton by at least 15 points. Meanwhile NV02, OR02, IL12, GA09, GA01, TX14, AZ08 have no serious democratic campaigns and the challengers are broke. Meanwhile, there's no reason to think OH14 would flip before OH01 or OH10. You have a huge Democratic near-sweep in Illinois but also the Republicans holding onto MO02 and IN05 as well as all of their Michigan and Pennsylvania seats. Georgia's 9th congressional district is R+31, meaning a Republican should be winning by a 62 point margin there. Not 62%. A 62 point margin. Meanwhile you're not including much more plausible flips like KY06, IN05, NC11, NC08, NC09, AR02, KS02, PA10, MI03, MI06.

This list is batsh**t insane.

[WD]

For the Senate, I feel that the Democrats will gain Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia Regular, Georgia-Special, Montana, Texas, and South, but lose Alabama and Michigan. Kansas and Alaska might come into play as well.

For the House of Representatives, I predict that the Democrats will pick up AZ-06, AZ-8, CA-1, CA-4, CA-8, CA-22, CA-25, CA-42, CA-50, CO-3, GA-1, GA-7, GA-9, IL-12, IL-13, IL-16, NE-2, NC-2, NC-6, NV-2, NY-1, NY-2, OH-14, OR-2, TX-3, TX-10, TX-14, TX-21, TX-22, TX-23, TX-24, TX-25, VA-1, VA-5, WA-3, and WA-5, but lose KY-3, FL-21, MN-7, NY-11, TN-5, and WI-3

Is this a joke? GA-9 flips but IN-05 doesn’t?

[WD]

For the Senate, I feel that the Democrats will gain Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia Regular, Georgia-Special, Montana, Texas, and South, but lose Alabama and Michigan. Kansas and Alaska might come into play as well.

For the House of Representatives, I predict that the Democrats will pick up AZ-06, AZ-8, CA-1, CA-4, CA-8, CA-22, CA-25, CA-42, CA-50, CO-3, GA-1, GA-7, GA-9, IL-12, IL-13, IL-16, NE-2, NC-2, NC-6, NV-2, NY-1, NY-2, OH-14, OR-2, TX-3, TX-10, TX-14, TX-21, TX-22, TX-23, TX-24, TX-25, VA-1, VA-5, WA-3, and WA-5, but lose KY-3, FL-21, MN-7, NY-11, TN-5, and WI-3

Is this a joke? GA-9 flips but IN-05 doesn’t?

Indiana is Mike Pence’s home state, so there should be some coattail effects there.

Pence is VP and isn’t on the top of the ticket, and given that there’s a pretty good chance Biden carries IN-05, coattails won’t really be a thing. Also, how do you justify GA-09, a R+31 seat, flipping?

[MATTROSE94]

For the Senate, I feel that the Democrats will gain Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia Regular, Georgia-Special, Montana, Texas, and South, but lose Alabama and Michigan. Kansas and Alaska might come into play as well.

For the House of Representatives, I predict that the Democrats will pick up AZ-06, AZ-8, CA-1, CA-4, CA-8, CA-22, CA-25, CA-42, CA-50, CO-3, GA-1, GA-7, GA-9, IL-12, IL-13, IL-16, NE-2, NC-2, NC-6, NV-2, NY-1, NY-2, OH-14, OR-2, TX-3, TX-10, TX-14, TX-21, TX-22, TX-23, TX-24, TX-25, VA-1, VA-5, WA-3, and WA-5, but lose KY-3, FL-21, MN-7, NY-11, TN-5, and WI-3

Is this a joke? GA-9 flips but IN-05 doesn’t?

Indiana is Mike Pence’s home state, so there should be some coattail effects there.

Pence is VP and isn’t on the top of the ticket, and given that there’s a pretty good chance Biden carries IN-05, coattails won’t really be a thing. Also, how do you justify GA-09, a R+31 seat, flipping?

I mean to put GA-12 instead. It is only a R+9 district that could flip if Joe Biden does well enough in Georgia.

[WD]

For the Senate, I feel that the Democrats will gain Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia Regular, Georgia-Special, Montana, Texas, and South, but lose Alabama and Michigan. Kansas and Alaska might come into play as well.

For the House of Representatives, I predict that the Democrats will pick up AZ-06, AZ-8, CA-1, CA-4, CA-8, CA-22, CA-25, CA-42, CA-50, CO-3, GA-1, GA-7, GA-9, IL-12, IL-13, IL-16, NE-2, NC-2, NC-6, NV-2, NY-1, NY-2, OH-14, OR-2, TX-3, TX-10, TX-14, TX-21, TX-22, TX-23, TX-24, TX-25, VA-1, VA-5, WA-3, and WA-5, but lose KY-3, FL-21, MN-7, NY-11, TN-5, and WI-3

Is this a joke? GA-9 flips but IN-05 doesn’t?

Indiana is Mike Pence’s home state, so there should be some coattail effects there.

Pence is VP and isn’t on the top of the ticket, and given that there’s a pretty good chance Biden carries IN-05, coattails won’t really be a thing. Also, how do you justify GA-09, a R+31 seat, flipping?

I mean to put GA-12 instead. It is only a R+9 district that could flip if Joe Biden does well enough in Georgia.

It’s a Kemp+16 district. You actually think Biden has a chance there?

[MATTROSE94]

For the Senate, I feel that the Democrats will gain Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia Regular, Georgia-Special, Montana, Texas, and South, but lose Alabama and Michigan. Kansas and Alaska might come into play as well.

For the House of Representatives, I predict that the Democrats will pick up AZ-06, AZ-8, CA-1, CA-4, CA-8, CA-22, CA-25, CA-42, CA-50, CO-3, GA-1, GA-7, GA-9, IL-12, IL-13, IL-16, NE-2, NC-2, NC-6, NV-2, NY-1, NY-2, OH-14, OR-2, TX-3, TX-10, TX-14, TX-21, TX-22, TX-23, TX-24, TX-25, VA-1, VA-5, WA-3, and WA-5, but lose KY-3, FL-21, MN-7, NY-11, TN-5, and WI-3

Is this a joke? GA-9 flips but IN-05 doesn’t?

Indiana is Mike Pence’s home state, so there should be some coattail effects there.

Pence is VP and isn’t on the top of the ticket, and given that there’s a pretty good chance Biden carries IN-05, coattails won’t really be a thing. Also, how do you justify GA-09, a R+31 seat, flipping?

I mean to put GA-12 instead. It is only a R+9 district that could flip if Joe Biden does well enough in Georgia.

It’s a Kemp+16 district. You actually think Biden has a chance there?

If he ends up winning by a landslide, I feel that GA-12 could narrowly flip to the Democrats.

[WD]

For the Senate, I feel that the Democrats will gain Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia Regular, Georgia-Special, Montana, Texas, and South, but lose Alabama and Michigan. Kansas and Alaska might come into play as well.

For the House of Representatives, I predict that the Democrats will pick up AZ-06, AZ-8, CA-1, CA-4, CA-8, CA-22, CA-25, CA-42, CA-50, CO-3, GA-1, GA-7, GA-9, IL-12, IL-13, IL-16, NE-2, NC-2, NC-6, NV-2, NY-1, NY-2, OH-14, OR-2, TX-3, TX-10, TX-14, TX-21, TX-22, TX-23, TX-24, TX-25, VA-1, VA-5, WA-3, and WA-5, but lose KY-3, FL-21, MN-7, NY-11, TN-5, and WI-3

Is this a joke? GA-9 flips but IN-05 doesn’t?

Indiana is Mike Pence’s home state, so there should be some coattail effects there.

Pence is VP and isn’t on the top of the ticket, and given that there’s a pretty good chance Biden carries IN-05, coattails won’t really be a thing. Also, how do you justify GA-09, a R+31 seat, flipping?

I mean to put GA-12 instead. It is only a R+9 district that could flip if Joe Biden does well enough in Georgia.

It’s a Kemp+16 district. You actually think Biden has a chance there?

If he ends up winning by a landslide, I feel that GA-12 could narrowly flip to the Democrats.

If you think Biden will win GA by 15-20 points, then sure.

[here2view]

Senate: Lean D
House: Titanium D

[MillennialModerate]

House: Safe D
Senate: Lean R

[coloradocowboi]

I honestly think Biden is gonna stomp Trump and there will be repercussions nationwide. I also think the polls are still undercounting young and Black people, particularly.

Biden wins 422-116 (all swing states + SC)

Dems +10in the Senate (AK, AZ, CO, MT, KS, IA, GA, GA-S, SC, ME, NC, lose AL)

Dems +25 in the House (AK-AL, AR 2, AZ 6, CA 25, CO 3, GA 7, IL 13, IN 5, MI 3, MN 1, MO 2, MT-AL, NC 2, NC 6, NE 2, NJ 2, NY 2, NY 24, PA 1, PA 10, SC 5, TX 10, TX 21, TX 22, TX 23, TX 24, and VA 5) only losing MN 7 and OK 5

Only Sununu goes under for governors, D+1

Dems flip AZ, MN, PA, and NC Senates, AZ, TX, MI, NC, and PA houses, gaining trifectas in PA and NC, and breaking them in AZ and TX.

[Canis]

[MillennialModerate]

House: Dems gain 2 seats (lose some, gain some)

Senate:
Dems flip: AZ, CO, ME, IA.
Republicans flip: AL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol GA would go D after AZ, CO, ME and NC

I am predicting a D majority AZ, CO, GA, IA, ME and NC flips. We don't know what flips after that, but AK, SC, KS, MT and TX very well can