NY-24 (Siena/Syracuse.com): Balter +3

[ON Progressive]

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/cny/2020/10/john-katko-dana-balter-in-dead-heat-in-house-race-siena-college-syracusecom-poll.html

Dana Balter (D) 45
John Katko (R-inc) 42

Biden leads 53-34 for President.

[LimoLiberal]

Somehow I forgot this was even a race. Are outside groups spending big here?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Big yikes for Katko. It doesn't help that he openly supports Trump.

[Storr]

There's no way Katko survives a +19 (or any double digit) Biden win.  This district was only Clinton +4 in 2016, but double digit wins for Obama in both 2008 and 2012.

[Roll Roons]

There's no way Katko survives a +19 (or any double digit) Biden win.  This district was only Clinton +4 in 2016, but double digit wins for Obama in both 2008 and 2012.

Don't be so sure. He beat a scandal-free incumbent by 19 points, and won in 2016 by over 20 as Clinton carried the district by 4. There's a reason none of the major forecasters have this race as a tossup.

[Xing]

While I want to see another poll before considering this a Toss-Up, I think this race has been overlooked by a lot of us.

[Yellowhammer]

TOAST

[WD]

There's no way Katko survives a +19 (or any double digit) Biden win.  This district was only Clinton +4 in 2016, but double digit wins for Obama in both 2008 and 2012.

Don't be so sure. He beat a scandal-free incumbent by 19 points, and won in 2016 by over 20 as Clinton carried the district by 4. There's a reason none of the major forecasters have this race as a tossup.

There will be very little, if any ticket spitting this year. If Biden wins this district by anywhere as much as the poll says, Katko is finished.

[Coastal_Elite]

I live in this district, and I can tell you that enthusiasm for Balter is MUCH higher this year than it was in 2020, and the enthusiasm for Katko in past elections is just not there as much.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

There's no way Katko survives a +19 (or any double digit) Biden win.  This district was only Clinton +4 in 2016, but double digit wins for Obama in both 2008 and 2012.

Don't be so sure. He beat a scandal-free incumbent by 19 points, and won in 2016 by over 20 as Clinton carried the district by 4. There's a reason none of the major forecasters have this race as a tossup.

Partisanship is at an all time high and Katko is in the same boat as Peterson.

Maybe the pundits know something we don’t, but the way I see it they’re either slow or in denial.

[MT Treasurer]

There's a reason none of the major forecasters have this race as a tossup.

I mean, maybe it’s the same reason they had CA-21 as Lean/Likely R in 2018... because (as always) the pundits are very bad at their job?

"Candidate quality" matters.... up to a point. Katko wouldn’t survive a Biden win this big, although it probably won’t be quite as lopsided as this poll shows.

[Skye]

There's a reason none of the major forecasters have this race as a tossup.

I mean, maybe it’s the same reason they had CA-21 as Lean/Likely R in 2018... because (as always) the pundits are very bad at their job?

"Candidate quality" matters.... up to a point. Katko wouldn’t survive a Biden win this big, although it probably won’t be quite as lopsided as this poll shows.

Yes, but, I mean, did anyone really expect a Biden +19 lead in this district?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 28-29
414 likely voters
MoE: 5.1%

[SnowLabrador]

Still Lean R.

[Landslide Lyndon]

There's no way Katko survives a +19 (or any double digit) Biden win.  This district was only Clinton +4 in 2016, but double digit wins for Obama in both 2008 and 2012.

Don't be so sure. He beat a scandal-free incumbent by 19 points, and won in 2016 by over 20 as Clinton carried the district by 4. There's a reason none of the major forecasters have this race as a tossup.

Katko won in 2014 and Maffei proved to be an extremely weak incumbent (only Mia Love can be compared to him).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Fuller release:

https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/CD240920-Crosstabs.pdf

Balter 42%
Katko 40%
Williams (WFP) 6%
Won’t vote for Congress 2%
Someone else 0%
Don’t know/no opinion 10%

If the WFP candidate is removed from the ballot (pending a lawsuit):

Balter 45%
Katko 42%
Won’t vote for Congress 3%
Someone else 0%
Don’t know/no opinion 10%

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Man, bowman, jones and Balter? That would be awesome!