SC - Quinnipiac: Trump+1 (user search)
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  SC - Quinnipiac: Trump+1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: SC - Quinnipiac: Trump+1  (Read 5841 times)
Adam Griffin
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Posts: 20,088
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« on: September 30, 2020, 01:23:02 PM »

A lot has changed over the past decade, but let's not forget that SC was 4 points to the right of Georgia in 2008 & 2 points to the right in 2012 - not to mention varying competitive gubernatorial races before and after.



If Trump is on trajectory for an electoral collapse, then SC being 4 points to the right of GA wouldn't be unfathomable at all. Biden being in the 45-46% range (average of above 4 races is 45.5% D) is more believable than not.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,088
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2020, 02:31:43 PM »

SC whites were already more Democratic than GA/AL/MS... add in suburban defection from GOP + strong AA turnout for Jaime, it’s an Indiana type perfect storm.

Why is that?
According to exit polls 70% of whites in SC voted for Trump, compared to 74% in GA, and what was obviously in the 80’s in AL/MS. SC was a double digit win for Trump bc of low Black turnout for Hillary and high third party vote. SC also doesn’t have as many Latinos/Asians as GA. The 2018 gov nominee got all the third party vote and got 46%. I believe Jaime will win SC-02 and SC-01 by double digits (James Smith lost both) and make huge inroads in SC-04 which can get him to 48-49 and we need some GOP folks to vote third party or leave it blank.

Not just in 2016, but in 2012 as well:



SC whites are about 7-8 points (margin-wise) more Democratic than GA whites. Democratic support collapsed in SC in '16 due to low black turnout (particularly in Southern rural areas; the same phenomenon we saw in MS; given the 2 states are a combination of two blackest-rural states in the country, not too surprising).

Only countervailing issue is that SC is generally becoming whiter (or at least less black), but the whites moving in are disproportionately college-educated, so at worst it is probably a wash.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,088
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2020, 02:46:08 PM »

If South Carolina is that close...well goodbye President Trump.

This. If Trump wins South Carolina by less than maybe 5 or 6, he will definitely be losing Florida, and probably losing North Carolina and Georgia.

I think GA will still be under his wing, but NC is barely gone for him. FL is totally gone.

IT
IS
JUST
NOT
THERE
YET
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,088
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2020, 04:32:51 PM »



SC whites are about 7-8 points (margin-wise) more Democratic than GA whites. Democratic support collapsed in SC in '16 due to low black turnout (particularly in Southern rural areas; the same phenomenon we saw in MS; given the 2 states are a combination of two blackest-rural states in the country, not too surprising).

Only countervailing issue is that SC is generally becoming whiter (or at least less black), but the whites moving in are disproportionately college-educated, so at worst it is probably a wash.

I'm surprised SC whites are more Dem than Georgia ones given Georgia has a bigger urban (not just suburban) population and more transplants from the liberal Northeast or California rather than Midwestern retirees. Also isn't South Carolina one of the very few states that are getting whiter? Seems to be the reversal of the Great Migration hasn't affected SC as much?

This taps into my "latitude" and "coastal" theories, though they are not the root explanations for why. Basically, the further north whites are, the more Democratic they are. If you look at SC, it doesn't look any further north as a whole than GA, except that the middle half of the state is largely black and rural. You have large concentrations of whites in the northern-most portions of SC voting similarly/slightly above how whites in North GA do in terms of D vote share, and you also have a large concentration of whites along the coast ("more moderate weather climate means more moderate political climate").

I did mention in my OP how SC is getting whiter (or at least less black), but the flow of whites to the state are increasingly not as hostile to Ds given trends along educational lines (and the non-black, non-white flow has largely been insignificant until now).
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