SC - Quinnipiac: Trump+1

[Pollster]

It's just not there yet

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

If South Carolina is that close...well goodbye President Trump.

This. If Trump wins South Carolina by less than maybe 5 or 6, he will definitely be losing Florida, and probably losing North Carolina and Georgia.

[Zache]

Quinnipiac is wilding out.

[indietraveler]

I want to believe because I care more about Graham losing than SC actually flipping.

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1311369742951870464

[BaldEagle1991]

If South Carolina is that close...well goodbye President Trump.

This. If Trump wins South Carolina by less than maybe 5 or 6, he will definitely be losing Florida, and probably losing North Carolina and Georgia.

I think GA will still be under his wing, but NC is barely gone for him. FL is totally gone.

[ugabug]

I want to believe because I care more about Graham losing than SC actually flipping.

Same with me. Though one thing that does worry me is that a new Supreme Court fight might give both Trump and Graham just the little extra boost they need to get over the finish line.

[Brittain33]

Sometimes you feel like a

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1311369742951870464

If we can get South Carolina and Alaska (and therefore presumably get Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida in the process) we will have every state on both the Atlantic and Pacific - a great Coastal Elitist empire of the seas.

[Adam Griffin]

SC whites were already more Democratic than GA/AL/MS... add in suburban defection from GOP + strong AA turnout for Jaime, it’s an Indiana type perfect storm.

Why is that?

According to exit polls 70% of whites in SC voted for Trump, compared to 74% in GA, and what was obviously in the 80’s in AL/MS. SC was a double digit win for Trump bc of low Black turnout for Hillary and high third party vote. SC also doesn’t have as many Latinos/Asians as GA. The 2018 gov nominee got all the third party vote and got 46%. I believe Jaime will win SC-02 and SC-01 by double digits (James Smith lost both) and make huge inroads in SC-04 which can get him to 48-49 and we need some GOP folks to vote third party or leave it blank.

Not just in 2016, but in 2012 as well:



SC whites are about 7-8 points (margin-wise) more Democratic than GA whites. Democratic support collapsed in SC in '16 due to low black turnout (particularly in Southern rural areas; the same phenomenon we saw in MS; given the 2 states are a combination of two blackest-rural states in the country, not too surprising).

Only countervailing issue is that SC is generally becoming whiter (or at least less black), but the whites moving in are disproportionately college-educated, so at worst it is probably a wash.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MoE: 2.9%
Changes with September 11-14 poll

Trump 48% (+3)
Biden 47% (+6)
Someone else 1% (+1)
Don't know/no answer 4% (n/c)

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'm not that shocked. Most of my Republican friends are backing Biden this time around. My family here has also flipped and plans to vote straight Democrat aside from local races.

If Trump loses SC, this race will be a landslide. I can see Biden getting 47-48%.

[wbrocks67]

I don't know, but SC in theory shouldn't be that far behind GA and NC.

Possibly, but 4% better for Biden than Texas and only 4% worse than Florida?

Q-pac has a really hard time polling Hispanics, so I wouldn't really compare

[Adam Griffin]

If South Carolina is that close...well goodbye President Trump.

This. If Trump wins South Carolina by less than maybe 5 or 6, he will definitely be losing Florida, and probably losing North Carolina and Georgia.

I think GA will still be under his wing, but NC is barely gone for him. FL is totally gone.

IT
IS
JUST
NOT
THERE
YET

[Stuart98]

This is... A lot worse for Trump than I expected.

425 map train here we come‽

[Alben Barkley]

Can you even imagine how this forum would react if a poll came out showing Biden only up 1 in Illinois!

Because that’s roughly the equivalent to this.

[wbrocks67]

Isn't this around the time the bottom started falling out for McCain in 2008

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Isn't this around the time the bottom started falling out for McCain in 2008

October, but that's mostly because that's when the economy/stock market really began to collapse.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Quinnipiac is quickly becoming a joke. There’s no way Trump is up 5 in Texas (or up at all) if he’s up only 1 in SC

[Alben Barkley]

Quinnipiac is quickly becoming a joke. There’s no way Trump is up 5 in Texas (or up at all) if he’s up only 1 in SC

Margins of error, outliers, etc.

No individual poll can be taken as gospel, and comparing one poll directly to another of a different state is not a meaningful exercise. It doesn’t prove the pollster as a whole is terrible just because the results of two polls don’t meet your priors sitting next to each other.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Quinnipiac is quickly becoming a joke. There’s no way Trump is up 5 in Texas (or up at all) if he’s up only 1 in SC

Margins of error, outliers, etc.

No individual poll can be taken as gospel, and comparing one poll directly to another of a different state is not a meaningful exercise. It doesn’t prove the pollster as a whole is terrible just because the results of two polls don’t meet your priors sitting next to each other.

If this was Emerson or Graves, people would be mocking the Texas-South carolina disparities relentlessly.

[wbrocks67]

Quinnipiac is quickly becoming a joke. There’s no way Trump is up 5 in Texas (or up at all) if he’s up only 1 in SC

once again: Q-pac has a hard time polling Hispanics, hence their wonky results in TX + FL

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac is quickly becoming a joke. There’s no way Trump is up 5 in Texas (or up at all) if he’s up only 1 in SC

This take (and all like it) is not sound.  The two polls are independent, and more importantly, the results are not point values!  They are the midpoints of confidence intervals.  This poll has an MoE of about 3%, so it implies anything from Biden+5 to Trump+7.  Assuming the Texas poll has a similar MoE, it would imply anything from Biden+1 to Trump+11.  There's a perfectly reasonable overlap between the two state results; for example, it might be close in Texas while Trump is up 5 or 6 in SC.

Everyone who is interested in polling needs to remember the bolded part above and stop focusing on exact results, especially when trying to compare different polls.  If you don't take this to heart and really believe it, you're never going to have a good understanding of what polls do and don't tell us.

[NOVA Green]

Anybody want to take a stab at what a County map of SC would look like with these numbers?

I would imagine Beaufort County would be Biden, as well as Georgetown as well...

[H. Ross Peron]

SC whites are about 7-8 points (margin-wise) more Democratic than GA whites. Democratic support collapsed in SC in '16 due to low black turnout (particularly in Southern rural areas; the same phenomenon we saw in MS; given the 2 states are a combination of two blackest-rural states in the country, not too surprising).

Only countervailing issue is that SC is generally becoming whiter (or at least less black), but the whites moving in are disproportionately college-educated, so at worst it is probably a wash.

I'm surprised SC whites are more Dem than Georgia ones given Georgia has a bigger urban (not just suburban) population and more transplants from the liberal Northeast or California rather than Midwestern retirees. Also isn't South Carolina one of the very few states that are getting whiter? Seems to be the reversal of the Great Migration hasn't affected SC as much?