SC - Quinnipiac: Trump+1

[Brittain33]

This is jaw-dropping. We need some more polls.

[Alben Barkley]

Trump is destroying the entire Reagan/Bush southern coalition ugh

This could be the realigning election we've been waiting for.  All of that fanfiction on this website may be coming to pass.

It would also make the “40 year cycle” theory even more right. There are already several noted similarities between this election and 1980. If it’s a realigning election too, will be even more similar.

[Rookie Yinzer]

SC whites were already more Democratic than GA/AL/MS... add in suburban defection from GOP + strong AA turnout for Jaime, it’s an Indiana type perfect storm.

[ON Progressive]

Trump is destroying the entire Reagan/Bush southern coalition ugh

Good riddance!

Hope Trump doesn't take the GOP back to the shape it was from 1932-1980, that would be terrible.

Au contraire, that would be excellent.

[republican1993]

toss up

[Crumpets]

[Adam Griffin]

A lot has changed over the past decade, but let's not forget that SC was 4 points to the right of Georgia in 2008 & 2 points to the right in 2012 - not to mention varying competitive gubernatorial races before and after.



If Trump is on trajectory for an electoral collapse, then SC being 4 points to the right of GA wouldn't be unfathomable at all. Biden being in the 45-46% range (average of above 4 races is 45.5% D) is more believable than not.

[ajc0918]

SC whites were already more Democratic than GA/AL/MS... add in suburban defection from GOP + strong AA turnout for Jaime, it’s an Indiana type perfect storm.

Why is that?

[libertpaulian]

SC whites were already more Democratic than GA/AL/MS... add in suburban defection from GOP + strong AA turnout for Jaime, it’s an Indiana type perfect storm.

If Dems are smart, they'll invest in SC long-term regardless if Biden/Harrison win or lose.

[DrScholl]

Biden is doing 10% white non-college whites and 15% better with college educated whites than Clinton did.

[Xing]

Quinnipiac has had a Democratic lean in recent years, so this needs to be taken with loads of salt, but if SC is even remotely close (I don't see any way it actually flips), we're looking at a blue tsunami.

[tjstarling]

So NC and SC are voting the same way? Color me deeply skeptical.

[Skill and Chance]

So NC and SC are voting the same way? Color me deeply skeptical.

NC has a lot more room for Republicans to grow.  Dems already hit the floor with rural whites in SC and GA. 

[Rookie Yinzer]

SC whites were already more Democratic than GA/AL/MS... add in suburban defection from GOP + strong AA turnout for Jaime, it’s an Indiana type perfect storm.

Why is that?

According to exit polls 70% of whites in SC voted for Trump, compared to 74% in GA, and what was obviously in the 80’s in AL/MS. SC was a double digit win for Trump bc of low Black turnout for Hillary and high third party vote. SC also doesn’t have as many Latinos/Asians as GA. The 2018 gov nominee got all the third party vote and got 46%. I believe Jaime will win SC-02 and SC-01 by double digits (James Smith lost both) and make huge inroads in SC-04 which can get him to 48-49 and we need some GOP folks to vote third party or leave it blank.

[Sirius_]

SC has been hit very hard by the virus and has suffered from incompetent leadership. There's a very large number of anti-maskers and virus deniers running around here, but perhaps there is a quiet majority of virus believers in the state including some of Trump's soft supporters in 2016 who are moving towards Biden. There may also be non-voters in this state who have been motivated to vote because of how terrible this virus situation is, this would be the case for my father, and is probably even more so the case in the heavily black areas. I can't claim to truly know for sure but that is my best guess as to what is going on.

[woodley park]

Wow, and I thought I had seen everything.

[Horus]

Outlier until proven otherwise but this is very, very nice.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Quinnipiac releasing a outlier ?.. color me surprised.

[soundchaser]

Even if this is four or five points off, it means the bottom has truly fallen out for Trump. This should be a huge warning sign for him.

[WD]

N U T

[DINGO Joe]

Should still give Lindsay another bout of the vapors

[Podgy the Bear]

Like GA, I am finding it hard to believe.  But this would be wonderful if this happened!

[Skill and Chance]

SC has been hit very hard by the virus and has suffered from incompetent leadership. There's a very large number of anti-maskers and virus deniers running around here, but perhaps there is a quiet majority of virus believers in the state including some of Trump's soft supporters in 2016 who are moving towards Biden. There may also be non-voters in this state who have been motivated to vote because of how terrible this virus situation is, this would be the case for my father, and is probably even more so the case in the heavily black areas. I can't claim to truly know for sure but that is my best guess as to what is going on.

IDK.   The most "whatever" responses to COVID were Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Oklahoma, and South Dakota.  It does seem like there was serious blowback in the urbanized states that tried to do nothing.  South Dakota and Oklahoma are rural enough to make a legitimate case that they needed fewer restrictions than other states. The most aggressive early responses were the West Coast, Ohio, and Michigan.  Weirdly, the governors (and their parties) in the Northeast and Southwest who got religion on COVID but acted late seem to be the most helped in polling- Cuomo/Murphy/Baker with strict lockdowns that probably came too late, Hogan aggressively stockpiling tests but then finding out the tests didn't work right, Abbott being the 1st R governor in a Trump state to mandate masks, but not until July, Ducey doing a partial shutdown in the summer after resisting it in the spring, etc.

[BaldEagle1991]

If South Carolina is that close...well goodbye President Trump.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

NUT NUT NUT NUT!!!!