Latino Decisions: Biden +42 nationally (leads in swing states too)

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/lbarronlopez/status/1295359872305901570

[Alben Barkley]

But... but... I was told Biden had a Latino voter problem?

[Woody]

But... but... I was told Biden had a Latino voter problem?

He is. LD is basically a D-Internal.
+ He's heavily underperforming in Florida, the most important state this election, next to Pennsylvania.

[Person Man]

There's going to be a big MoE for those state numbers. The topline looks reasonable.

[wbrocks67]

Actually it's probably better to include 2018 with exit polls, b/c it's possible 2016 was a little off (they had Hillary with +30 but Nelson with +9, yet Nelson did better overall...)

NATIONALLY
2016 exit poll: Hillary +38
2018 exit poll: Dems +40
2020 poll: Biden +42

ARIZONA
2016 exit poll: Hillary +30
2018 exit poll: Sinema +40
2020 poll: Biden +34

FLORIDA
2016 exit poll: Hillary +27
2018 exit poll: Nelson +9
2020 poll: Biden +14

NORTH CAROLINA
2016 exit poll: Clinton +17
2020 poll: Biden +37

PENNSYLVANIA
2016 exit poll: Clinton +52
2018 exit poll: Wolf +36/Casey +38
2020 poll: Biden +31

[wbrocks67]

Going off of 2016 AND 2018 #s, the #s look largely reasonable. Biden is about the same nationally as Hillary was in 2016 and Dems were in the house vote in 2018.

He's running ahead of HRC in AZ but less than Sinema right now, while running way ahead of HRC in NC.

PA and FL show that the exit polls were probably largely off in those states in 2016, considering that he is way down from HRC's 2016 margins, but about on par with 2018 #s. Doing better than Nelson in FL, and doing close to what Wolf/Casey did in 2018, when they won by double digits statewide.

[DrScholl]

But... but... I was told Biden had a Latino voter problem?

He is. LD is basically a D-Internal.
+ He's heavily underperforming in Florida, the most important state this election, next to Pennsylvania.

It's not an internal and it's very accurate when it comes to the Hispanic vote.

[wbrocks67]

But... but... I was told Biden had a Latino voter problem?

He is. LD is basically a D-Internal.
+ He's heavily underperforming in Florida, the most important state this election, next to Pennsylvania.

It may be D-affiliated, but the topline number is essentially what Dems got in 2016 and 2018, so it's not out of step at all.

meanwhile, he's "underperforming" compared to Hillary's 2016 exit poll, but that was probably largely flawed, since he's currently running ahead of Nelson & Gillum's 2018 #.

[Alben Barkley]

But... but... I was told Biden had a Latino voter problem?

He is. LD is basically a D-Internal.
+ He's heavily underperforming in Florida, the most important state this election, next to Pennsylvania.

1. No it’s not. It’s the most reliable poll of Latinos.

2. No he’s not. Most polls show him with a significant lead in Florida overall. And as mentioned, he’s not underperforming with Latinos there compared to 2018. The 2016 numbers could have been off, and regardless this is a poll, with undecideds and margin of error (especially outside the topline numbers), not actual election results. Good chance he will do even better when people vote.

3. Florida is the most important state for Trump. He HAS to win it. Biden doesn’t, yet he is anyway. And if he does lose it but still wins some combination of MI/WI/PA/NC/AZ, he wins.

So no, he does not have a Latino voter problem. What is your basis for this claim? Your precious little snowflake feelings? Sure isn’t actual evidence or data, that’s for damn sure.

[Alben Barkley]

But... but... I was told Biden had a Latino voter problem?

Latino Decision Poll from right before the 2016 election:
Nationwide:  79% Clinton, 18% Trump
Arizona: 84% Clinton, 12% Trump
Florida: 67% Clinton, 31% Trump
North Carolina: 82% Clinton, 15% Trump
Pennsylvania: not polled

So nationwide, that's Democrats going from +61 to +42, with Trump gaining 6% in absolute terms.
In Arizona, Democrats are going from +72 to +34, with Trump gaining 17% in absolute terms.
In Florida, Democrats are going from +36 to +14, with Trump gaining 10% in absolute terms.
In North Carolina, Democrats are going from +67 to +37, with Trump gaining 13% in absolute terms.

So, yeah, he does?

You really should have stopped at “right before the 2016 election.”  Could have saved yourself some time and embarrassment.

That is obviously apples to oranges and irrelevant for several reasons:

1. This poll is not right before the election; that one was. Biden continues to show improvement with Latinos in every new poll here, no reason he couldn’t right up until the election.

2. That poll obviously significantly overestimated Hillary’s margins with Latinos compared to what she actually got. Many pollsters have changed their methodology in an attempt to be more accurate following 2016. Thus that could explain why Biden’s numbers look closer to actual 2016/2018 numbers already. And certainly plenty good enough to win.

So no, he doesn’t.

[wbrocks67]

But... but... I was told Biden had a Latino voter problem?

Latino Decision Poll from right before the 2016 election:
Nationwide:  79% Clinton, 18% Trump
Arizona: 84% Clinton, 12% Trump
Florida: 67% Clinton, 31% Trump
North Carolina: 82% Clinton, 15% Trump
Pennsylvania: not polled

So nationwide, that's Democrats going from +61 to +42, with Trump gaining 6% in absolute terms.
In Arizona, Democrats are going from +72 to +34, with Trump gaining 17% in absolute terms.
In Florida, Democrats are going from +36 to +14, with Trump gaining 10% in absolute terms.
In North Carolina, Democrats are going from +67 to +37, with Trump gaining 13% in absolute terms.

So, yeah, he does?

You really should have stopped at “right before the 2016 election.”  Could have saved yourself some time and embarrassment.

That is obviously apples to oranges and irrelevant for several reasons:

1. This poll is not right before the election; that one was. Biden continues to show improvement with Latinos in every new poll here, no reason he couldn’t right up until the election.

2. That poll obviously significantly overestimated Hillary’s margins with Latinos compared to what she actually got. Many pollsters have changed their methodology in an attempt to be more accurate following 2016. Thus that could explain why Biden’s numbers look closer to actual 2016/2018 numbers already. And certainly plenty good enough to win.

So no, he doesn’t.

Exactly, it's pretty clear looking at the 2018 exits that the 2016 state exit polls and polls themselves were a decent amount off in some sectors (like the Hispanic vote in FL)

[Skye]

I wonder how numbers like these in FL would reconcile with the leads Biden currently has in the state.

The election would probably feature Trump recovering in Miami-Dade but collapsing pretty much in every other urban county.

[ProudModerate2]

Nice.
Arizona = Tilt/Lean Biden.
Texas = Tossup.

[Progressive Pessimist]

These look pretty good, but are the Florida numbers enough for him to conceivably win the state with?

[wbrocks67]

These look pretty good, but are the Florida numbers enough for him to conceivably win the state with?

If this poll is right, sure. Nelson nearly won in 2018 and he only won them by 9.

[Progressive Pessimist]

These look pretty good, but are the Florida numbers enough for him to conceivably win the state with?

If this poll is right, sure. Nelson nearly won in 2018 and he only won them by 9.

Well, s*** then. Florida may just partially redeem itself this year. Remember the pact, Florida!

[lfromnj]

But... but... I was told Biden had a Latino voter problem?

Whoever told you was correct!

We got more work to do !

[Hammy]

These look pretty good, but are the Florida numbers enough for him to conceivably win the state with?

If this poll is right, sure. Nelson nearly won in 2018 and he only won them by 9.

Well, s*** then. Florida may just partially redeem itself this year. Remember the pact, Florida!

Turns out Florida just did it's usual thing and did the opposite of what it's supposed to

[ElectionsGuy]

I wonder what Latino (D)ecisions thinks of Biden's performance with Hispanics in Florida and Texas. Don't worry though, they'll be back in 2024 to tell you Democrats have fixed their problems and will go back to landsliding among them. 

[Progressive Pessimist]

These look pretty good, but are the Florida numbers enough for him to conceivably win the state with?

If this poll is right, sure. Nelson nearly won in 2018 and he only won them by 9.

Well, s*** then. Florida may just partially redeem itself this year. Remember the pact, Florida!

Turns out Florida just did it's usual thing and did the opposite of what it's supposed to

Yeah, no more chances for this f***ing state! I thought I learned my lesson in 2018, but I figured there was enough to learn from them. Hindsight was our best asset in this election, but it it still wasn't enough for some states and some of the surprises we were met with.

[Green Line]

I wonder what Latino (D)ecisions thinks of Biden's performance with Hispanics in Florida and Texas. Don't worry though, they'll be back in 2024 to tell you Democrats have fixed their problems and will go back to landsliding among them. 

Even worse, they'll just deny that there ever was a problem in the first place.  Thats what they did after 2016, threw a hissy fit when it turned out Trump didn't do any worse than Romney among Hispanics, claimed it wasn't true.

The most pathetic thing about it is that networks like NBC and CNN report their polls as if they're an unbiased group sincerely trying to gauge latino public opinion.  They are a left wing interest group that has a result in mind and then polls until the result fits their agenda.

[Intell]

Latino Descisons shows it hackishness in saying Trump did worse amongst latinos than Romney when this was demonstrably untrue. This same poll in 2020 was done to promote propaganda of Latinos hate Trump. I think Trump got around 38-39% of Latinos in 2020.

[Bootes Void]

Latino Descisons shows it hackishness in saying Trump did worse amongst latinos than Romney when this was demonstrably untrue. This same poll in 2020 was done to promote propaganda of Latinos hate Trump. I think Trump got around 38-39% of Latinos in 2020.

34 to 35% seem right. 39% is very generous

[Intell]

Latino Descisons shows it hackishness in saying Trump did worse amongst latinos than Romney when this was demonstrably untrue. This same poll in 2020 was done to promote propaganda of Latinos hate Trump. I think Trump got around 38-39% of Latinos in 2020.

34 to 35% seem right. 39% is very generous

Maybe you're right- maybe the Rio Grande Valley results have shell shocked me too much- as someone who thought Trump would gain amongst latinos, we'll see.

[lfromnj]

Latino Descisons shows it hackishness in saying Trump did worse amongst latinos than Romney when this was demonstrably untrue. This same poll in 2020 was done to promote propaganda of Latinos hate Trump. I think Trump got around 38-39% of Latinos in 2020.

34 to 35% seem right. 39% is very generous

Maybe you're right- maybe the Rio Grande Valley results have shell shocked me too much- as someone who thought Trump would gain amongst latinos, we'll see.

Lawrence MA which is a town which is 80% hispanic had a 20% shift towards Trump. NY 15 currently has a random GOPer getting triple the votes of the 2016 dude in the most D congressional district in the nation and also the poorest district in the nation. Wellesley MA which has a median income of 150k was more Pro Biden than Lawrence MA with a median income of 25k.