WA-03 (GQR): Trump +1
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  WA-03 (GQR): Trump +1		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: WA-03 (GQR): Trump +1  (Read 844 times)
Pollster
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« on: September 30, 2020, 09:38:40 AM »
Trump 48
Biden 47

Congressional race is Herrera Beutler +2, 49/47

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2020, 09:39:56 AM »
Trump 49-43 in 2016.
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vitoNova
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« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2020, 09:46:02 AM »
Trump-mentum!!
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2020, 09:46:46 AM »
September 24-26
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Undecided 6%
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Horus
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« Reply #4 on: September 30, 2020, 10:04:20 AM »
This is the type of district I'd expect Trump to hold steady in. It's pretty wwc, full of Portlanders escaping high taxes and likely very anti Seattle elites. Bad poll for Trump.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2020, 10:57:11 AM »
I wouldn't be surprised if Trump runs behind every statewide and congressional Republican candidate in Washington.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2020, 11:13:11 AM »
While I do think it's more likely Herrera-Beutler wins by 2 than by 16, this is probably still a bit D-friendly. This is one of the few places in Washington where I don't think Trump will do much worse than in 2016.
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Sbane
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« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2020, 01:35:06 PM »
Quote from: Xing on September 30, 2020, 11:13:11 AM
While I do think it's more likely Herrera-Beutler wins by 2 than by 16, this is probably still a bit D-friendly. This is one of the few places in Washington where I don't think Trump will do much worse than in 2016.

He isn't doing much worse though. He got 48% in this poll and 49% in 2016. I could easily see this end up about 49-48 Trump or something like that. Trump hits his number from 2016 but Biden gains on Hillary's number.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2020, 03:50:58 PM »
With numbers like this Pacific County is likely flipping back DEM...

Most of the DEM district vote gains are probably happening in Clark County, with 3rd Party Voters coming back to the DEMs from '16.

Lewis County (Centralia Area) has been a reactionary stronghold since around WW I where Union activists were lynched by a rabid mob, so I wouldn't expect to see it move away from Trump much at all...

Ultimately this district probably comes down to how Cowlitz County swings, where there is still a strong residual ancestral Democrat / Union presence along the lower Columbia River around Longview / Kelso area...
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