Pulse Opinion Research (R) - NH: Biden +14

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1311104780710948864?s=21

[libertpaulian]

LOL.

[ON Progressive]

Why would you even release this?

[Trends Are Fake]

LMAO

[Senator Sirius]

RIP Swing State NH

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://amgreatness.com/2020/09/29/biden-leads-in-new-hampshire-poll/

For the Center for American Greatness
MoE: 4%

Without leaners:
Biden 54%
Trump 42%
Some other candidate 2%
Not sure 2%

With leaners:
Biden 56%
Trump 42%
Some other candidate 1%
Not sure 1%

[MT Treasurer]

Do they have the gender numbers?

RIP Swing State NH

Told you so, should have listened to me five years ago.

Sorry, enough undeserved bragging now

[Paul Biya isn’t going far enough]

[ajc0918]

Another door closes for the Trump campaign. Their path continues to narrow.

[Lief 🗽]

Seems about right, NH will move back to the left of the tipping point state this year.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

As unreliable as any Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen poll on the surface, but I'll be watching their Rasmussen-free surveys a bit more closely. I wonder just how R-leaning they'll be, even for a partisan sponsor, without Rasmussen's special sauce.

[pbrower2a]

The good news for Trump on this is that New Hampshire has only four electoral votes to deny Donald Trump on November 3. The bad news is this horrid poll for him of a small state electorally is one symptom of an election running away from him.

Let's see what happens in polling after the first debate.

[Alben Barkley]

Safe D

[Ljube]

The good news for Trump on this is that New Hampshire has only four electoral votes to deny Donald Trump on November 3. The bad news is this horrid poll for him of a small state electorally is one symptom of an election running away from him.

Let's see what happens in polling after the first debate.

NH +14 for Biden is not good news for Trump.
If that is accurate, I don't see a path for Trump to win the election.

[pbrower2a]

... Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise (why so many predictions but some don't) It relates probability well, and as I have suggested, being up 5% in a binary election a year before means little, being up 5% a month before the election is huge. It is from 2012, and it relates much other than elections (like sports, poker, and even chess). What it says of electoral leads as a campaign approaches its conclusion is telling.

On page 63, Figure 2-4 shows the probability of a Senate candidate winning (1998 to 2008) with a certain lead (1, 5, 10, and 20 points) at one year, six months, three months, one month, one week, and one day. Because statewide races for President are much like statewide races for the Senate -- with the qualification that Presidential nominees do not usually make appearances where they see themselves losing -- unless they really are losing nationwide.

Time to election  |1 point|5 points||10 points|20 points|
one day............. |...64%|....95%|.....99.7%|.99.999%|
one week........... |...60%|....89%|.......98%|...99.97%|
one month......... |...57%|....81%|.......95%|.....99.7%|
three months..... |...55%|....72%|.......87%|........98%|
six months..........|...53%|....66%|.......79%|.......93%|
one year.............|....52%|...59%|.......67%|.......81%|

(I am going to put this back in my "electoral theory" section because it will remain relevant.

So what conclusions can I draw? You might be surprised that a five-point lead one month before Election Day is no less significant than a twenty-point lead one year before the election. Thus one hears things like Democrats saying "We have a chance of winning West Virginia if everything goes right" and Republicans say that they have a chance of winning Massachusetts... yadda, yadda, yadda. Likewise, being one point ahead on the day before the election is worth almost as much as being five points ahead six months before the election or even ten points ahead  a year before the election.

....Here is how I see likelihoods of wins of the Presidency (as Presidential votes have much the same logistics as Senate elections). It could be that Presidential elections have even stronger odds for a Presidential nominee with a sizable lead wins because Presidential campaigns are likely to use triage to abandon long-shot races in states. If you are the Democratic nominee for President and you have only a 7% chance of winning Kansas, you give up on Kansas. If you are the Democratic nominee for US Senator from Oklahoma and you have a 7% chance of winning the Senate seat in contest, you cannot triage your way into Minnesota.

Here is how I estimate values of likelihood based on the size of a lead one month before the election

lead  win %

0.......50
1.......57
2.......62
3.......71
4.......77
5.......81
6.......85
7.......87
8.......89
9.......92
10.....95
11.....96
12.....96
13.....97
14.....97
15.....98
16.....98
17.....99
18.....99+.
19.....99+
20.....99.7

Red is a direct citation of Silver as I apply it and others are my attempts to smooth a curve without the means of a graphing calculator at my disposal. If you have some other estimate then go ahead and show it. It might be better.  

A 14-point lead for Biden in New Hampshire at this point, if you think the poll accurate, suggests that the state is out of contest... as burned to a crisp as a piece of meat that just went through a blast furnace.  
 

[NOVA Green]

"Angry NH Women in Full effect"....

Damn used to be an Atlas virtual meme in '16, but yeah looks like reality in 2020...

[Rand]

Lotion depleted.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://amgreatness.com/2020/09/29/biden-leads-in-new-hampshire-poll/

For the Center for American Greatness
MoE: 4%

Without leaners:
Biden 54%
Trump 42%
Some other candidate 2%
Not sure 2%

With leaners:
Biden 56%
Trump 42%
Some other candidate 1%
Not sure 1%

Muh undecideds breaking for Trump.

[Yellowhammer]

LOL this is gonna be 1932 all over again, isn't it?

[Bootes Void]

LOL this is gonna be 1932 all over again, isn't it?

seems more likely to be 1980

[woodley park]

LOL this is gonna be 1932 all over again, isn't it?

seems more likely to be 1980

I wish. No matter what happens, there is always going to be a giant splash of red in the south and central part of the US.