WA-03 (GQR): Herrera Beutler +2

[Pollster]

Herrera Beutler 49
Long 47

Presidential race is Trump +1, 48/47

Link

[ultraviolet]

Trump +7 in 2016, Herrera Beutler (R) +5 in 2018

[VAR]

Favorables:
Long +11
Herrera Beutler +5

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 24-26
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Undecided 4%

[Stuart98]

Lean R

[Xing]

B-b-b-but Atlas told me that the August primary results show Washington is trending HARD RIGHT (because muh CHOP) and that Herrera Beutler is completely safe, while Schrier is headed for defeat and Inslee is highly vulnerable!!

In all seriousness, a bit too Democratic-friendly (I'd call this race Lean/Likely R), but this is more likely to flip than WA-08.

[ajc0918]

Herrera Beutler is beyond cringe

[Brittain33]

I don’t know anything about this area other than that Vancouver is a suburb of Portland. It still confuses me that it was held by a Dem for a long time but has never been competitive since JHB won.

[CultureKing]

I don’t know anything about this area other than that Vancouver is a suburb of Portland. It still confuses me that it was held by a Dem for a long time but has never been competitive since JHB won.

Brian Baird was a Moderate Hero (TM). Meanwhile, as a reminder Vancouver tilts libertarian since folks can live/work in Washington (no income tax) and head over to Oregon for purchases/shopping (no sales tax). With that said, Vancouver itself has seen a lot of growth over the last few years and has slowly shifted left. The rest of the district (ex: Cowlitz county) has shifted towards the Rs.

Should also be noted that the old district included most of Olympia which is pretty far left. When maps got updated in 2010 and Washington added another district the 3rd became a good amount more conservative.

[Seattle]

I don’t know anything about this area other than that Vancouver is a suburb of Portland. It still confuses me that it was held by a Dem for a long time but has never been competitive since JHB won.

That's because the old WA-3 was more Democratic than the current version in two ways - it took in a good chunk of Thurston county, including parts of Olympia/Oly "suburbs" and excluded Klickitat county, in addition to the still strong D-voting tradition of Pacific/Wahkiakum/Cowlitz WWC voters (and even Lewis to an extent). The loss of the Olympia-area is IMO the biggest issue.

Furthermore, JHB was and is a good candidate, she makes the bare minimum attempt to be "moderate" and has been able to ride that image.

I remain skeptical that Carolyn Long can beat JHB (although I did donate to her last night), so I'd put this at Tilt R. Biden is going to win Clark by 10 (Clinton won by a couple hundred votes) - but that goes to show that the county is really not your typical D-swinging suburban one. Only wealthier Camas/Washougal along the Columbia River swung D in 2016. Outside of Vancouver/the area between I-5 and I-205, it really starts to get exurby - and Trumpy.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This seat is not flipping. Herrera will probably win by 5-6 ish

[lfromnj]

I don’t know anything about this area other than that Vancouver is a suburb of Portland. It still confuses me that it was held by a Dem for a long time but has never been competitive since JHB won.

Its 2/3 swingy neutral trending suburb(clark county) and 1/3 right trending WWC areas.