GA - Civiqs/Daily Kos: Ossoff +2%, Warnock leads Collins by 13%; runoffs
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  GA - Civiqs/Daily Kos: Ossoff +2%, Warnock leads Collins by 13%; runoffs
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Author Topic: GA - Civiqs/Daily Kos: Ossoff +2%, Warnock leads Collins by 13%; runoffs  (Read 973 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« on: September 29, 2020, 02:45:56 PM »

https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/9/29/1981768/-Warnock-surges-to-Georgia-Senate-special-election-lead-Dems-all-looking-good-Civiqs-poll

September 26-29

Warnock 38%
Collins 25%
Loeffler 21%
Lieberman 5%
Tarver 2%
Someone else 1%
Unsure 7%

Collins 44%
Lieberman 39%

Lieberman 39%
Loeffler 39%

Warnock 49%
Collins 44%

Warnock 49%
Loeffler 39%
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7,052,770
Harry
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« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2020, 02:53:35 PM »

Time for Lieberman and Tarver to stand aside so that Sen. Warnock can vote against Barrett in November.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2020, 03:02:15 PM »

Lieberman seems to be getting exactly what he deserves...
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2020, 03:06:49 PM »
« Edited: September 29, 2020, 03:12:22 PM by Alben Barkley »

LIEBERMAN COLLAPSE!

You love to see it!

Warnock might be a stronger candidate than Ossoff, and both Loeffler and Collins might be weaker candidates than Perdue. So contrary to expectations, there's a chance the special election might have a better shot of flipping than the regular election.  

Also, beautiful to see Warnock at 49 with such wide margins in those head-to-heads. Maybe if Lieberman and Tarver drop out, he can get over 50 on November 3 and avoid the run-off entirely.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2020, 03:33:24 PM »

Fuller release:

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_GA_banner_book_2020_09_y983ce.pdf

969 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%

Ossoff vs Perdue
In addition to previous #s: Hazel (L) 3%

Runoffs
Feature "Someone else" as an option which is a little bizarre (I'm guessing write-ins/spoilt ballots/"I would only vote if [X] was in the runoff are what is going on here).

Lieberman vs Collins
Someone else 13%
Unsure 5%

Lieberman vs Loeffler
Someone else 17%
Unsure 5%

Warnock vs Collins
Someone else 4%
Unsure 4%

Warnock vs Loeffler
Someone else 8%
Unsure 4%
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Horus
Sheliak5
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« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2020, 03:34:50 PM »

LIEBERMAN COLLAPSE!

You love to see it!

Warnock might be a stronger candidate than Ossoff, and both Loeffler and Collins might be weaker candidates than Perdue. So contrary to expectations, there's a chance the special election might have a better shot of flipping than the regular election.  

Also, beautiful to see Warnock at 49 with such wide margins in those head-to-heads. Maybe if Lieberman and Tarver drop out, he can get over 50 on November 3 and avoid the run-off entirely.

Warnock is absolutely a better candidate but Jon plays very well with the Dunwoody-Sandy Springs technocrat crowd. These two balance the various factions of Georgia Dems out quite nicely.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2020, 07:07:18 PM »

Warnock had a perfect storm recently. The energy for Matt to drop out + the Obama/Abrams/Carter endorsement + him starting to air TV ads + the moneyfall from Dems pissed about RBG
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2020, 07:30:51 PM »

Hard to see what Lieberman gains by staying in at this point.
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We Live in Black and White
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« Reply #8 on: September 29, 2020, 07:38:48 PM »

If it weren't for professional clowns Lieberman and Tarver, Warnock might stand a slim chance of winning outright in November.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #9 on: September 29, 2020, 07:41:44 PM »

Everybody say thank you to obama!
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #10 on: September 29, 2020, 07:45:17 PM »


For the 1000th time:
"Thanks, Obama"
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #11 on: September 29, 2020, 11:36:38 PM »

New Poll: Georgia Senator (Special) by Civiqs on 2020-09-29

Summary: D: 49%, R: 44%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #12 on: September 29, 2020, 11:40:28 PM »

New Poll: Georgia Senator (Special) by Civiqs on 2020-09-28

Summary: D: 49%, R: 39%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #13 on: September 29, 2020, 11:47:52 PM »

New Poll: Georgia Senator by Civiqs on 2020-09-29

Summary: D: 48%, R: 46%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Horus
Sheliak5
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« Reply #14 on: September 30, 2020, 12:42:20 AM »

Hard to see what Lieberman gains by staying in at this point.

He erases any chance of Warnock crossing 50% unless Biden is landsliding. Gotta appease his GOP bosses, guy isn't going anywhere
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #15 on: September 30, 2020, 05:06:07 AM »

I mean this is legitimately the least realistic poll of the cycle.

Dems winning both races in Georgia? NOT. A. PRAYER
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Ishan
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« Reply #16 on: September 30, 2020, 07:20:43 AM »

Hard to see what Lieberman gains by staying in at this point.

He erases any chance of Warnock crossing 50% unless Biden is landsliding. Gotta appease his GOP bosses, guy isn't going anywhere
I think that Lieberman should drop out and lose, but I highly doubt Lieberman is being paid by the GOP, and even if Lieberman wasn't running, I doubt Warnock would cross 50%.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #17 on: September 30, 2020, 08:34:55 AM »

Hard to see what Lieberman gains by staying in at this point.

He erases any chance of Warnock crossing 50% unless Biden is landsliding. Gotta appease his GOP bosses, guy isn't going anywhere
I think that Lieberman should drop out and lose, but I highly doubt Lieberman is being paid by the GOP, and even if Lieberman wasn't running, I doubt Warnock would cross 50%.

This. There are other similarly credible candidates on the ballot for Democratic voters - the Libertarian, the Green, an independent with a track record here (Al Bartell), a Democratic state legislator running as an independent and Democrats Ed Tarver and Richard Din Winfield. Those are just the most prominent candidates for Democratic-leaning voters in a sprawling field.

Id say this race is a textbook example of failure to cull the field.
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #18 on: September 30, 2020, 09:27:39 AM »

Wow. Its time to move GA special to tossup
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #19 on: September 30, 2020, 09:46:15 AM »

I mean this is legitimately the least realistic poll of the cycle.

Dems winning both races in Georgia? NOT. A. PRAYER

Abrams lost by <2 in 2018, how is it not realistic to have the two basically tied within the MoE? Also the Warnock race makes total sense as he got a lot of key endorsements over the past week and has starting really churning out ads
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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #20 on: September 30, 2020, 01:21:21 PM »

LIEBERMAN COLLAPSE!

You love to see it!

Warnock might be a stronger candidate than Ossoff, and both Loeffler and Collins might be weaker candidates than Perdue. So contrary to expectations, there's a chance the special election might have a better shot of flipping than the regular election.  

Also, beautiful to see Warnock at 49 with such wide margins in those head-to-heads. Maybe if Lieberman and Tarver drop out, he can get over 50 on November 3 and avoid the run-off entirely.

Warnock is absolutely a better candidate but Jon plays very well with the Dunwoody-Sandy Springs technocrat crowd. These two balance the various factions of Georgia Dems out quite nicely.

Yeah, it's amazing how well the two of them together represent the Ds in GA.
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