GA - Civiqs - Biden + 3

[redjohn]

Oh man, these results are going to be earth-shattering to the people who still think Trump has a great chance at flipping MN and NV.

[Horus]

Warnock has poured it on for advertising over the last few weeks.  It's paid off nicely.

Warnock's TV ads that I've seen have been very positive.  I think that's a plus in an environment where we're being bombarded with negative ads from other candidates (not just in this race).

Most of my friends are low info Dems/left leaning Indies. They never start the political conversations with me lol. But just this week two have approached me about how much they like what they're hearing from Reverend Warnock. Now that he's finally making himself known he's pretty impressive.

[Brittain33]

My memory from 2000 was that some upsets of incumbents, specifically by Cantwell and Stabenow, were seen as unlikely until they pulled up in the polls very late in the year. This kind of feels like that.

[CellarDoor]

I think this also shows that there are some endorsements that do still matter.  Didn't Obama endorse Warnock recently?

[Yoda]

Omg Lieberman is going down like the Hindenburg and I am here for it.

[skbl17]

I think this also shows that there are some endorsements that do still matter.  Didn't Obama endorse Warnock recently?

Obama and the Carters both endorsed Warnock over the last few days; Stacey Abrams asked for Lieberman to drop out of the race. So clearly there's been a push as of late to get Warnock through, and it seems like it may be working.

[Buzz]

Warnock does have effective ads compared to some of the trash I see.  This poll is an eye opener.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Fuller release:

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_GA_banner_book_2020_09_y983ce.pdf

969 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%

Someone else 2%
Unsure 1%

[VAR]

Will all the people who were viciously attacking the Quinnipiac poll offer formal apologies now?

Reminds me of this one:

Maybe let’s stop with the “omg no it’s an outlier!!1” routine with Maine polls showing Biden back at Obama’s margin of victory now?

Newer ME polls don’t show Biden leading by 17-21 points which is actually no surprise.

Anyway, here’s my predictions:

PRES: Biden <1%
SEN-R: Perdue <1%
SEN-S: Warnock vs. Loeffler runoff, Loeffler wins by 1-2% in January
GA-06: McBath +2-3%
GA-07: Bourdeaux +3-4%

[DrScholl]

Uhm, Jimmy Carter won this state even when he was losing in a landslide against Reagan and Bill Clinton won it in 1992, so obviously this is a Democrat state and the fact that Trump is only down three means that he is expanding the man into Democrat territory. Lol, Trump will win Georgia bigly.

[DINGO Joe]

Warnock has poured it on for advertising over the last few weeks.  It's paid off nicely.

Warnock's TV ads that I've seen have been very positive.  I think that's a plus in an environment where we're being bombarded with negative ads from other candidates (not just in this race).

Don't have to run attack ads against Loeffler.  Her own ads function as attack ads towards herself when viewed by anyone outside of the R base.