GA-Quinnipiac: Biden +3

[Alben Barkley]

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ajc-poll-georgians-support-roe-wade-split-heartbeat-bill/jWr5L1S5kooo7akOCkfzGM/
Poll from last year.
Im telling y'all the Roe polls are BS. This poll somehow had 49/44 opposition for the heartbeat bill yet somehow Roe had massive support at 70% THE AVERAGE VOTER DOES NOT UNDERSTAND ROE and it is stupid to cite Roe v Wade polling that people support you.

Well apparently the poll straight-up said that Roe established a woman’s right to an abortion, and still got that level of support.

Also if the average voter doesn’t understand Roe, why do people also seem to think the Supreme Court is such a huge issue for anti-abortion voters? Most seem to at least know Roe is why abortion is legal now; “Overturn Roe” is a rallying cry for them.

I’m not saying the poll is necessarily right. I’m just saying that IF there is any sort of change in the Southern white vote away from the diehard anti-abortion stance, that could have huge ramifications in the future. And there are other reasons to believe that may be the case. Namely, the country is becoming less and less religious as young people flee the church in droves. And even young evangelicals are more moderate on social issues compared to older ones.

[redjohn]

In hindsight, PA+MI+WI were the most unpredictable states in 2016 due to their high undecideds and swings in previous cycles to Republicans. This election, I think the most unpredictable states could end up being GA+TX, two states with strong recent Democratic trends and enough undecideds to swing them both to Biden.

edit: By unpredictable, I mean the states in which expert ratings are most caught off-guard.

[Pericles]

Tilt D.

[Horus]

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ajc-poll-georgians-support-roe-wade-split-heartbeat-bill/jWr5L1S5kooo7akOCkfzGM/
Poll from last year.
Im telling y'all the Roe polls are BS. This poll somehow had 49/44 opposition for the heartbeat bill yet somehow Roe had massive support at 70% THE AVERAGE VOTER DOES NOT UNDERSTAND ROE and it is stupid to cite Roe v Wade polling that people support you.

Well apparently the poll straight-up said that Roe established a woman’s right to an abortion, and still got that level of support.

Also if the average voter doesn’t understand Roe, why do people also seem to think the Supreme Court is such a huge issue for anti-abortion voters? Most seem to at least know Roe is why abortion is legal now; “Overturn Roe” is a rallying cry for them.

I’m not saying the poll is necessarily right. I’m just saying that IF there is any sort of change in the Southern white vote away from the diehard anti-abortion stance, that could have huge ramifications in the future. And there are other reasons to believe that may be the case. Namely, the country is becoming less and less religious as young people flee the church in droves. And even young evangelicals are more moderate on social issues compared to older ones.

On criminal justice and lgbt stuff yes, but not abortion. At least not in my experience.

[VAR]

[/img]

Quinnipiac is an embarrassing pollster at this point.

let me go cherry pick 3 Traflagars polls from 2016 if we are playing that game then.  Smh

The same trafalgar that has Kemp up 12 in 2018 right before the election? That’s the pollster you’re trying to tie Quinnipiac to? You probably actually believed that tbh...

Quinnipiac had Nelson and Gillum up 7 points in Florida and said Trump and Hillary were tied in GA in 2016, so yes I am.

Why is every election about 2016? Name one race Traflagar got right post-2016 not named Florida.

This isn’t about Trafalgar though.

Also, the undecideds in pretty much every Georgia poll really do look good for Biden.  But who knows whether those are really "undecideds" or just non-voters.

This is why I think Biden will narrowly carry GA.

[Horus]

Tilt D.

Absolutely not. Tossup, but good trends under the hood for Biden I'll agree.

[ajc0918]

Trump campaign is out of money and out of hope.

[tagimaucia]

I still think GA votes to the right of FL and NC this year, but its gonna move to the left a lot more quickly than NC in the long run for sure.

[redjohn]

Also, say what you will about 2016 polling, but Clinton did not lead in a single GA poll after early August and still ended up slightly over-performing her polling average (not the case in most states). Biden is literally leading GA polls this cycle. The state's a tossup at best for Trump.

[lfromnj]

[/img]

Quinnipiac is an embarrassing pollster at this point.

let me go cherry pick 3 Traflagars polls from 2016 if we are playing that game then.  Smh

The same trafalgar that has Kemp up 12 in 2018 right before the election? That’s the pollster you’re trying to tie Quinnipiac to? You probably actually believed that tbh...

Quinnipiac had Nelson and Gillum up 7 points in Florida and said Trump and Hillary were tied in GA in 2016, so yes I am.

Why is every election about 2016? Name one race Traflagar got right post-2016 not named Florida.

Missouri/Michigan underestimated Rs by 2 points so thats pretty right. They did have the garbage GA poll though. They got Cramer's margin in ND. Other than that they were generally a mixed bag missing a few races within about 5 -6 points(in both ways) They aren't a great pollster but from what I have heard their methods were the same for the past 4 years. I just throw them in the average. People got way too excited over that Biden +3 in Wisconsin yesterday despite the fact the most recent Marquette poll is Biden +4. It doesn't mean auto adjust to +8 biden or whatever. Just dump all the Wisconsin polls in the average, weight Marquette by twice or 3 times and finish it. Overall they do pretty decent in the midwest.(talking about Trafalgar)

What I do for Wisconsin is just take Marquette(most recent) + 538 average and divide it by 2

[Devout Centrist]

Quinnipiac is an embarrassing pollster at this point.

Frankly, this election reminds me a lot of VA 2017. Same takes, same dogsweat, same panic...

[MT Treasurer]

Definitely less likely to go D than Iowa....

(Btw TX won’t be R+5 if GA is D+3, I expect them to vote about as far apart as in 2018 with GA-GOV and TX-SEN)

[Devout Centrist]

Quinnipiac is an embarrassing pollster at this point.

Maybe one day you’ll say it enough times to actually believe it yourself

Ok.  I will make sure you and I revisit all these Q polls on 11/4 just to see how accurate they were....

I agree. Their Texas poll is way off the mark.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Like I have in my prediction, I think GA votes to the left of both FL+NC and goes for Biden this year.

I'm 50/50 with left of FL but definitely agree about left of NC.

Although a more favorable political environment/infrastructure for Dems, NC seems like it stubbornly wants to be more like FL than VA. GA has more long-term upside and this year + the 2018 Gov race will be the first big steps in that direction. Here's hoping Sen. Ossoff can come along for the ride

[Rookie Yinzer]

Biden is not doing worse than Abrams. Period. GA is about to zoom to the left of FL/NC THIS YEAR.

[Woody]

Quinnipiac is an embarrassing pollster at this point.

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2585

[Bootes Void]

Biden is not doing worse than Abrams. Period. GA is about to zoom to the left of FL/NC THIS YEAR.

I doubt it would vote left of Florida this cycle, GA is still a couple points more than FL

[Crumpets]

Follow the Q(uinnipiac) drops. The Biden storm is coming. #WWG1WGA

[KaiserDave]

Count me skeptical, but amazing if even remotely true. Quinnipiac is hit or miss, but even if this is somewhat accurate it's game over for Trump.

[Badger]

Quinnipiac is an embarrassing pollster at this point.

Claims of an embarrassing pollster from an embarrassing poster.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news

[wbrocks67]

All of the numbers in this poll look remarkably similar to everything we’ve pulled out of Georgia since the conventions.

Yep, don't know why people are embarrassing themselves acting like this poll isn't a good one. The race is literally tied, so we're going to definitely get Biden +3 to Trump +3 polls. Not to mention the Civiqs poll as well. This poll actually seems to get the Black vote correct as well.

[ultraviolet]

Red avatars: if you want to believe this poll, you’ll also have to believe their poll showing Biden up 21 in ME and down 5 in TX.

I’ll take that lol