ND-DFM Research: Trump +19
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  ND-DFM Research: Trump +19
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Author Topic: ND-DFM Research: Trump +19  (Read 1188 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: September 29, 2020, 10:40:57 AM »


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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2020, 10:43:38 AM »

Changes with March 3-5, 2020 poll

Trump 56% (+1)
Biden 37% (-1)
Other candidate 3% (+1)
Undecided 4% (-1)
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Person Man
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« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2020, 10:44:02 AM »

Even if all undecideds vote for Trump, this would collaborate a decisive Biden NPV.
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MidwestPollster
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« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2020, 10:44:34 AM »

2016 Trump 62-27
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Person Man
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« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2020, 10:46:15 AM »

Changes with March 3-5, 2020 poll

Trump 56% (+1)
Biden 37% (-1)
Other candidate 3% (+1)
Undecided 4% (-1)

That's a tiny trend.
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TwinFallsDemocrat
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« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2020, 10:49:18 AM »

We're likely looking at a reversion to a 2012-style result with these numbers.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2020, 10:49:51 AM »

The Plains of s pretty much the only region along with bible belt that gives Trump 125 EC votes. He is losing in every other region. Since, so many people are Early Voting
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Panda Express
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« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2020, 10:50:21 AM »

I guess the only interesting place to watch in North Dakota is Fargo (Cass County). Romney barely edged out Obama here although Trump won by 10 points in 2016. I suspect Biden narrowly carries it.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #8 on: September 29, 2020, 10:50:24 AM »

We're likely looking at a reversion to a 2012-style result with these numbers.

Although, ironically, it’s hard to imagine Heitkamp winning an open seat in 2020 like she did in 2012.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #9 on: September 29, 2020, 10:51:08 AM »
« Edited: October 01, 2020, 09:00:18 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

We're likely looking at a reversion to a 2012-style result with these numbers.

Presumably Trump is being underestimated in a deep red state (polling tends to do that), but even if these figures are correct, there are far fewer voters here willing to split their tickets.

Even so, I hope they polled the Senate race here just to see how much Ahlers can limit Rounds' margin.

Edit: Ahlers is in the SD race and NDSEN isn't up for election - my mistake!
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #10 on: September 29, 2020, 10:52:09 AM »

We're likely looking at a reversion to a 2012-style result with these numbers.

Although, ironically, it’s hard to imagine Heitkamp winning an open seat in 2020 like she did in 2012.

Agreed, but even if her appeal had remained 100% intact since then, it wasn't in the cards - she's ruled out running for office again. The only hopes for Democrats here (in non-Senate races, that is) are a new recruit who hasn't yet registered on the map, the Pomeroy brothers attempting comeback bids or Tim Mahoney (mayor of Sioux Falls).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #11 on: September 29, 2020, 10:56:54 AM »

Trump will win North Dakota, but not as decisively as he did in 2016. This is about as clear an indicator that Trump has lost at least 5% of the popular vote from 2016, which puts him in roughly the same position as Jimmy Carter in 1980. Politically, North Dakota seems about what Texas would be (oil, farming, and ranching) without the giant cities and the large minority groups. Texas has a chance of going D and North Dakota doesn't.

South Dakota might be more interesting, but all in all we need to know how the 'safe' states go so that we can calibrate change in others.
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #12 on: September 29, 2020, 10:57:31 AM »

Same pollster had Trump 43-32 around the same time in 2016
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MidwestPollster
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« Reply #13 on: September 29, 2020, 11:04:29 AM »

South Dakota is consistently a top three state for Trump support. Gov. Noem would likely join a Trump admin if re-elected. Polling there would be very interesting.
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forza nocta
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« Reply #14 on: September 29, 2020, 11:33:38 AM »
« Edited: September 29, 2020, 11:39:07 AM by forza nocta »

Looks similar to Obamas 2012 margins
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #15 on: September 29, 2020, 11:58:33 AM »

500 likely voters according to 538
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #16 on: September 29, 2020, 12:15:39 PM »

Evidence piling up that Biden really does have something special going on with Northerners.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #17 on: September 29, 2020, 01:02:43 PM »

As North Dakota trends, so does the nation
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #18 on: September 29, 2020, 02:45:30 PM »

This should be identified as a Democratic pollster.

Quote
FARGO - There is precedent for a Republican U.S. Senate candidate in North Dakota being given a 10-point polling lead over Democrat Heidi Heitkamp. It didn't end well for the Republican.

Democrats are hoping history repeats itself, as a poll commissioned by NBC North Dakota shows Republican Kevin Cramer leading the incumbent Heitkamp 51 percent to 41 percent, with 8 percent undecided. [...]

There is one voice that, perhaps, to which we should listen a little more closely.

It is that of DFM Research out of the Twin Cities, a political polling firm owned by Dean Mitchell, who almost immediately took to Twitter after the latest poll to offer his own numbers that softly questioned the veracity of NBC North Dakota's poll. DFM later released a memo to the North Dakota Democratic-NPL party that was turned into a press release. [...]

But the point is, the only research firm to correctly predict Heitkamp winning six years ago is saying it's likely (but not guaranteed) this year's race is closer to a toss-up than a 10-point landslide.

https://www.grandforksherald.com/4508338-commentary-cramer-10-not-so-fast-pollster-suggests

They also understated Trump's 2016 margin by 25 points and only released numbers for selected areas of the state in 2018 (the eastern cities of Fargo, West Fargo and Grand Forks + rural eastern parts of ND) to push their narrative of a close Senate race between Heitkamp and Cramer.
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Rand
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« Reply #19 on: September 29, 2020, 05:06:55 PM »

Accurate.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #20 on: September 29, 2020, 05:46:51 PM »
« Edited: September 29, 2020, 06:51:40 PM by Republicans for Biden »

Even if all undecideds vote for Trump, this would collaborate a decisive Biden NPV.

The price of oil is collapsing which is probably causing ND to be in a recession, causing a lot of the roughneck workers to leave the state.
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TML
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« Reply #21 on: September 29, 2020, 06:07:33 PM »

Remember that in 2016, 538's final forecast as of the morning of Election Day had Trump winning ND by 23 points, yet he actually won by 36.
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