ME Colby College: Gideon +4 (Senate), Golden +23 (CD 2)

[TheRocketRaccoon]

http://colby.edu/government/wp-content/uploads/sites/66/2020/09/Wave-3-Topline-FINAL.pdf


Gideon (D) 45, Collins (R-inc) 41, Linn (I) 5, Savage (G) 3 [ME-SEN]

Golden (D-inc) 56, Crafts (R) 33 [ME-02]

[ajc0918]

The Golden boy can't lose!

[Niemeyerite]

+4 with the green candidate who explicitly wants her voters to rank Gideon 2nd getting 3%... Not bad!!

I think "Lean Dem" is the correct way to define this.

[One Term Floridian]

+4 with the green candidate who explicitly wants her voters to rank Gideon 2nd getting 3%... Not bad!!

I think "Lean Dem" is the correct way to define this.

Wow that’s Savage (G)

[Nyvin]

Golden +23??   That's crazy, how is that possible?

[wbrocks67]

I believe the last Colby poll had Gideon +5, so about the same. They asked second choice but really wish they did a full RCV model.

[kph14]

Golden +23??   That's crazy, how is that possible?

It's not that far-fetched, some of it may be due to name recognition, but Northern Maine still regularly elect Democrats downballot. There is still a lot of ticket-splitting going on there. Just look at the 2018 elections:

State Senate District 1 (Trump +7) reelected Sen. Troy Jackson (D) 60-39
State Senate District 2 (Trump +30!!) reelected Sen. Michael Carpenter (D) 51-49

[wbrocks67]

Golden +23??   That's crazy, how is that possible?

It's not that far-fetched, some of it may be due to name recognition, but Northern Maine still regularly elect Democrats downballot. There is still a lot of ticket-splitting going on there. Just look at the 2018 elections:

State Senate District 1 (Trump +7) reelected Sen. Troy Jackson (D) 60-39
State Senate District 2 (Trump +30!!) reelected Sen. Michael Carpenter (D) 51-49

Also it appears Crafts has literally no $$

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Golden +23??   That's crazy, how is that possible?

2022 is obviously a looming question mark, but he seems like a clear front runner to replace King in 2024

[MT Treasurer]

I can already see the outlines of an "Unbeatable Titan Jared Golden" meme beginning to take shape. Golden lucked out by running against a complete nobody who isn’t running a serious campaign and has never been competitive in a district which has a history of split-ticket voting and regularly supports Democrats downballot (and where polling tends to understate Republican support), so it’s not surprising to see him leading by such a wide margin. He’s a decent candidate, but he’ll more likely than not be out of Congress in 2023.

[Holmes]

Unbeatable Titan Jared Golden.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Golden numbers are too high, he'd be lucky to win by 10

[GALeftist]

Amusing how all the doubting Thomases come out of the woodworks just when Golden Boy starts to show his might. Sorry, sweaty, UTJG is literally invincible to man or God as long as he maintains his #populist New Deal rural Mainer support. Gideon is only winning on Golden's coattails.

[Canis]

lmao at Linn getting more support than savage he acted so badly during the debate lol The request denied and constant moaning about his website was so weird

[ProgressiveModerate]

Note how Gideon is only doing about as well as Biden is doing in ME. Not sure if that's a bad sign for Gideon or good news for Biden.

[President Johnson]

Wow, that Golden number is impressing. An outlier? Anyway, he should go for Angus King's seat in 2024, who is retiring at the end of his term.

[Xing]

Golden is not winning by 23. I think it's safe to say that he's favored and could very well overperform Biden by a decent margin, but I don't buy that number at all. It is a bit concerning that Gideon is underperforming Biden by 7.

[wbrocks67]

Golden is not winning by 23. I think it's safe to say that he's favored and could very well overperform Biden by a decent margin, but I don't buy that number at all. It is a bit concerning that Gideon is underperforming Biden by 7.

She was always going to underperform Biden. Collins is still gonna lose IMO but she won't lose by Trumps margin.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Sherrod Brown 2.0

[Yoda]

How much of a bump should Gideon get from ranked choice voting?