MI-NBC/Marist: Peters +5

[VAR]

Sep 19-23, 799 LV, MoE: 4.3%

Peters (D-inc) 49%
James (R) 44%

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7218405/Final-NBC-News-Marist-Poll-MI-Annotated.pdf

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Almost at 50

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Other 1%
Undecided 6%

Change/MRG suggesting it is one thing, but there is now a fairly consistent Peters underperformance being reflected in high-quality polling, both in terms of margin and topline numbers.

[SnowLabrador]

Yikes. This is now only Tilt D. Absolutely the most likely D-held seat to flip after Alabama.

[MT Treasurer]

Yikes. This is now only Tilt D. Absolutely the most likely D-held seat to flip after Alabama.

It’s always been the most likely D-held seat to flip after Alabama (lol at anyone who thought this was less winnable for Republicans than NH, MN and/or VA).

[Splash]

Not great for Peters. It's looking like Biden might have to drag him across the finish line.

[Suburbia]

James is not as controversial as Daniel Cameron.

If James wins, he will be eaten alive by the Left.

[Alben Barkley]

Yikes. This is now only Tilt D. Absolutely the most likely D-held seat to flip after Alabama.

LOL

Even if true, it’s not saying much. This seat is not “Tilt” D, still Likely. Peters is far more likely to win than Tillis, Collins, Gardner, and McSally at least. And he’s even in a better spot than Ernst, Daines, Perdue, and Graham. If this seat is only “Tilt” D, those all must be pure toss-ups at least and the first four I mentioned must be Safe D.

That is, if we are interested in being consistent and rational rather than bedwettiing, alarmist, contrarian, doomposting concern trolls. But you’ve made it pretty clear many times you’re not interested in that.

[Vosem]

RCP average currently has Peters leading by less than Cunningham, Kelly, or Gideon.

(Though 538 remains convinced ME and NC are likelier GOP wins than MI. But it's coming around on MI likelier than AZ -- they're currently both at exactly the same margin and candidate winning odds.)

[GALeftist]

Lest we forget, a consistent underwhelming lead in the mid single digits is still a consistent lead. On RCP, Greenfield is up by 2.6 in the spread, and people here still consider Ernst a favorite; if Ernst had Peters's numbers, I guarantee that IA-Sen would (rightly imo) be considered Likely R at the very least. Likely D, probably 85% chance Peters wins.

[wbrocks67]

Lest we forget, a consistent underwhelming lead in the mid single digits is still a consistent lead. On RCP, Greenfield is up by 2.6 in the spread, and people here still consider Ernst a favorite; if Ernst had Peters's numbers, I guarantee that IA-Sen would (rightly imo) be considered Likely R at the very least. Likely D, probably 85% chance Peters wins.

Yeah, John James's best poll has him at 44%. Yet people are trying to act like Peters is the one in danger here.

[Pericles]

James could have been won in a different year, but it seems he'll be unlucky and get swamped by two (non-Atlas) blue wave environments in a row.

[Blair]

I guess I'm not that worried because if Peters loses we're gonna have much bigger problems than just one senate seat flipping aren't we?

[SN2903]

Outlier. Peters is not at 49

[MT Treasurer]

I guess I'm not that worried because if Peters loses we're gonna have much bigger problems than just one senate seat flipping aren't we?

I mean, it’s not exactly impossible for Peters to underperform Biden by 3-4 points and this to quickly become a tipping-point race in the Senate. It’s not like Republicans are guaranteed 53+ Senate seats and the White House just because Peters may lose.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Weak Likely - Strong Lean for Peters. I really think the Democrats shouldn't overlook this one though

[Badger]

Outlier. Peters is not at 49

Oh good, he's back.

[DaleCooper]

I guess I'm not that worried because if Peters loses we're gonna have much bigger problems than just one senate seat flipping aren't we?

I mean, it’s not exactly impossible for Peters to underperform Biden by 3-4 points and this to quickly become a tipping-point race in the Senate. It’s not like Republicans are guaranteed 53+ Senate seats and the White House just because Peters may lose.

It's not impossible but I can't imagine a lot of Biden/James or Biden/third-party split-ticket voters.  I think it's more likely that Peters' underwhelming numbers are due more to him being less known than to him actually being opposed by the voters, which might result in him doing about as well as Biden statewide, maybe a little worse.

[SN2903]

Outlier. Peters is not at 49

Oh good, he's back.

John James is next Senator from the great state of Michigan

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Outlier. Peters is not at 49

Oh good, he's back.

John James is next Senator from the great state of Michigan

Former U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow sends her regards .

[TML]

Outlier. Peters is not at 49

Oh good, he's back.

John James is next Senator from the great state of Michigan

Former U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow sends her regards .

And so does Senator Alan Keyes of Maryland.

[Badger]

Outlier. Peters is not at 49

Oh good, he's back.

John James is next Senator from the great state of Michigan

Still a one-trick pony I see.