IA- WHO13 News/RABA Research: Biden +2

[Hope For A New Era]

He’s chillin’ in Cedar Rapids!

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Wow. Biden's going to lead in the IA polling average with just a month until election day. IA is a tossup. Trump's toast in WI+MI+MN.

And with OH also a toss-up, he’s toast in PA as well.

Midwest/rust belt seems to be returning to 2012 levels.

If Biden does win Iowa and Ohio, it won’t be because of a return to 2012. Biden will probably gain some WWC voters back to be sure, but the gains will almost definitely be driven more by suburban swings like we’ve seen everywhere else. Kentucky Governor’s race last year was a real good example of this when you compare Beshear’s 2015 win to his 2019 win. The margin was essentially the same statewide, but he traded large swaths of rural counties for urban and suburban gains. I guess you’d see places like Warren and Dallas counties in Iowa flip in this analogy.

Trends are usually real, but temporary mean reversion can happen with margins like these. If Biden's winning here, he'll be achieving a swing of almost equal proportion (if not larger) in rural areas and the driftless area will be crucial (in 2018, certain rural northern areas snapped back harder than suburbs - although not to 2012 levels - and that would probably need to continue for IA to be won). This means the voter coalition will be more suburban than in 2012, but the difference will be much smaller than in most states because IA is so rural to begin with. The gains from 2016 will also probably be more in the rural areas than the suburban ones for the same reason.

What started with corn pop will end in the corn fields.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Wow. Biden's going to lead in the IA polling average with just a month until election day. IA is a tossup. Trump's toast in WI+MI+MN.

And with OH also a toss-up, he’s toast in PA as well.

Midwest/rust belt seems to be returning to 2012 levels.

If Biden does win Iowa and Ohio, it won’t be because of a return to 2012. Biden will probably gain some WWC voters back to be sure, but the gains will almost definitely be driven more by suburban swings like we’ve seen everywhere else. Kentucky Governor’s race last year was a real good example of this when you compare Beshear’s 2015 win to his 2019 win. The margin was essentially the same statewide, but he traded large swaths of rural counties for urban and suburban gains. I guess you’d see places like Warren and Dallas counties in Iowa flip in this analogy.

Trends are usually real, but temporary mean reversion can happen with margins like these. If Biden's winning here, he'll be achieving a swing of almost equal proportion (if not larger) in rural areas and the driftless area will be crucial (in 2018, certain rural northern areas snapped back harder than suburbs - although not to 2012 levels - and that would probably need to continue for IA to be won). This means the voter coalition will be more suburban than in 2012, but the difference will be much smaller than in most states because IA is so rural to begin with. The gains from 2016 will also probably be more in the rural areas than the suburban ones for the same reason.

What started with corn pop will end in the corn fields.

Recced because of your last line

I don’t disagree that the Driftless area and other rural areas in Iowa and other northern states would and could probably swing hard. My point was largely that a Biden 2020 Iowa win would look a bit different aesthetically than the Obama 2012 Iowa win map with a lot less unanimous blue in the rural east, but on the flip side, a larger blue bubble coming out of Des Moines encompassing more “suburban” counties hat Romney won.

[Devils30]

Yeah, Biden probably wins Dallas County if he wins IA and Polk by 20+.

[NOVA Green]

Looks like this moved IA to Biden on the 538 Model:

Biden--- 46.5%
Trump-- 46.1%

Might be some $$$ to be made here in the online betting markets (Which I don't play--- but probably should...    )

Agree with the general comments from multiple posters regarding movement is probably happening both in "rural areas", "ancestral working class DEM cities", as well as as likely larger than average swings in what consists of "suburbs" for IA...

As I have mentioned in the past on multiple other threads, IA does have a significant college student population, (including quality private and religious schools not just State colleges & universities) as well as a decent quality state education system.

Although a Biden win in IA is not inconceivable at this point, it is worthy of note that Obama perhaps might have been unusually strong here, simply because he was a Midwestern Democrat from a neighboring State (not to mention his Grandma from Kansas), so we can't necessarily expect to see Biden perform as well as Obama did in '08 / '12....

[Rand]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

[philly09]

From Monday. Now we know why.

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1310590791832797184

[DaleCooper]

From Monday. Now we know why.

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1310590791832797184

I'm convinced that they've just given up and are pocketing what little money is left.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

You can drive from Duluth, MN to Miami, FL without leaving Biden country.

[Ferguson97]

The question isn't if Biden will win. The question is by how much.

[NOVA Green]

You can drive from Duluth, MN to Miami, FL without leaving Biden country.

Shhh... don't tell BRTD.   

[Lief 🗽]

Where the [inks] are the senate numbers??

[WD]

Where the [inks] are the senate numbers??

Delayed until 10PM now, apparently.

[Rand]

You can drive from Duluth, MN to Miami, FL without leaving Biden country.

Joennesota.
Joesconsin.
Joechigan.
Joehio.
Joesylvania.
Joeyland.
Joeginia.
North Joealina.
South Joealina.
Joegia.
Joerida.

[Alben Barkley]

Wow. Biden's going to lead in the IA polling average with just a month until election day. IA is a tossup. Trump's toast in WI+MI+MN.

And with OH also a toss-up, he’s toast in PA as well.

Midwest/rust belt seems to be returning to 2012 levels.

If Biden does win Iowa and Ohio, it won’t be because of a return to 2012. Biden will probably gain some WWC voters back to be sure, but the gains will almost definitely be driven more by suburban swings like we’ve seen everywhere else. Kentucky Governor’s race last year was a real good example of this when you compare Beshear’s 2015 win to his 2019 win. The margin was essentially the same statewide, but he traded large swaths of rural counties for urban and suburban gains. I guess you’d see places like Warren and Dallas counties in Iowa flip in this analogy.

Well, I didn't say why, did I? Just that they do indeed seem to be snapping back to roughly where they were in 2012, if a bit closer.

Beshear still won a lot of rural counties by the way; yeah he lost some from 2015 and ran up the score more in places like Fayette and Jefferson counties, but he still couldn't have won without rural support. And the same will be true for Biden in a state like Iowa. There will have to be significant reversion from 2016 levels among rural/WWC voters. They don't have to go all the way back to 2012 or beyond thanks to urban/suburban gains, but those are limited in Iowa so he'll still have to win a significant amount of rural support just like Beshear. It's not even a "probably" thing at this point; polls have been very consistent that Biden has gained a ton of WWC Obama-Trump voters back. Is he still losing the demographic as a whole? Of course. Nearly as badly as Hillary did in 2016? No! And that matters a ton.

I get that your whole thing is "trends are real," but so are outliers. Maybe an election like 2016 accelerated/amplified some trends beyond the point they naturally would have voted under more normal circumstances with different candidates, but now we're seeing some reversion to the mean. But the thing is, that seems to be limited to the rural/WWC trends; the suburban trends in favor of Democrats are moving full speed ahead even as those rural/WWC trends slow down and reverse. This is one of many reasons why Biden is going to win, and it won't be close.

[NOVA Green]

You can drive from Duluth, MN to Miami, FL without leaving Biden country.

Joennesota.
Joesconsin.
Joechigan.
Joehio.
Joesylvania.
Joeyland.
Joeginia.
North Joealina.
South Joealina.
Joegia.
Joerida.

Show me the County map so we can help BRTD drive safely down to FL for his Election Night Vacation coming up....   

@ BRTD are you there man?   

Champaign in a Hot Tub in South FL watching the election returns roll in come NOV 2020, rolling through only Biden Train Country....

[Roll Roons]

So still no Senate numbers? At this point, I feel like those are more important since Iowa has a very good chance of being the 51st seat.

[Horus]

Younger voters are far more pro-Trump than older voters in Iowa per this poll. Watch for the exits in MN, WI and here to confirm this come election night.