MI-Trafalgar: Biden +2
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  MI-Trafalgar: Biden +2
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Author Topic: MI-Trafalgar: Biden +2  (Read 1404 times)
VAR
VARepublican
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« on: September 30, 2020, 08:45:21 AM »

Biden 49%
Trump 47%

https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/restoration/pages/884/attachments/original/1601438834/RSTP_MI_'20_Sept_Press_Report.pdf?1601438834
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Orwell
JacksonHitchcock
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« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2020, 08:45:36 AM »

Likely Dem
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neostassenite31
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« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2020, 08:47:14 AM »

Trafalgar keeps polling the same 3-4 Midwestern states over and over
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2020, 08:48:56 AM »

For the Restoration PAC (R)
September 26-28
1042 likely voters
MoE: 2.95%
Changes with September 20-22 poll (not conducted for the Restoration PAC)
Changes calculated pre-rounding

Biden 49% (+3)
Trump 47% (n/c)
Jorgensen 2% (-1)
Someone else 1% (-1)
Hawkins 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Undecided 2% (-2)
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Person Man
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« Reply #4 on: September 30, 2020, 08:50:54 AM »

This probably bumps Biden in the averages.
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neostassenite31
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« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2020, 08:55:20 AM »

Partisan firms like Trafalgar exists in part to generate positive spin for their associated political party. If they're wildly off the mark this cycle it would seriously damage their credibility next cycle and people might stop reading them.

For this reason, I am curious as to whether Trafalgar will begin to produce numbers that are closer to the national media and academic pollsters around the end of the election season so as to retain their credibility for next time, in case there isn't a significant R bias in most state polling this cycle.  
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Horus
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« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2020, 08:56:34 AM »

This poll pushed Trump's overall chances down to 21 on 538.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2020, 08:57:20 AM »

This poll pushed Trump's chances down to 21 on 538.

Overall (out of 100) or just in the state of Michigan?

I could obviously take two seconds to look for myself, but I'm a spoiled princess, so...answers! Now!
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Buzz
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« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2020, 08:58:35 AM »

Trump is screwed.  Last night was the beginning of the end 
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Horus
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« Reply #9 on: September 30, 2020, 08:59:42 AM »

Trump is screwed.  Last night was the beginning of the end 

Wouldn't be so sure yet as we still have over a month. Almost everyone was saying the same thing about Hillary until the very last week.
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Buzz
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« Reply #10 on: September 30, 2020, 09:03:40 AM »

Trump is screwed.  Last night was the beginning of the end 

Wouldn't be so sure yet as we still have over a month. Almost everyone was saying the same thing about Hillary until the very last week.
I never felt this low about his chances in 16.  Last night was an absolute debacle.
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CellarDoor
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« Reply #11 on: September 30, 2020, 09:05:10 AM »

Biden +8 confirmed.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #12 on: September 30, 2020, 09:06:03 AM »

> T r a s h f a l g a r

If Trump can't even lead here, he's doomed in MI. Nothing we didn't know for weeks already.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: September 30, 2020, 09:17:03 AM »

Trump is screwed.  Last night was the beginning of the end 

Wouldn't be so sure yet as we still have over a month. Almost everyone was saying the same thing about Hillary until the very last week.

Doesn't matter what they're saying though - it's about what the #s are telling us. There are not 17% undecided right now like there was in 2016.
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Person Man
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« Reply #14 on: September 30, 2020, 09:20:23 AM »

Trump is screwed.  Last night was the beginning of the end  

Wouldn't be so sure yet as we still have over a month. Almost everyone was saying the same thing about Hillary until the very last week.

Doesn't matter what they're saying though - it's about what the #s are telling us. There are not 17% undecided right now like there was in 2016.

I still think that the Republicans could have better luck in the senate but between the sh**t that has been happening basically every day the last week, if Biden were still to lose, would make me not only embarrassed of being a Democrat, but embarrassed of talking about politics, this country, or anything that has to do with anything with money taken out of my paycheck.

At the beginning of this campaign, all the way up until last night, I was still hoping "to save face" if Biden lost but the democrats didn't get swept completely from power. I don't think that is going to be enough anymore.
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #15 on: September 30, 2020, 09:22:31 AM »

This poll pushed Trump's chances down to 21 on 538.

Overall (out of 100) or just in the state of Michigan?

I could obviously take two seconds to look for myself, but I'm a spoiled princess, so...answers! Now!

Overall. It’s now 78-21. It’s 86-14 in Michigan
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #16 on: September 30, 2020, 09:30:13 AM »

Partisan firms like Trafalgar exists in part to generate positive spin for their associated political party. If they're wildly off the mark this cycle it would seriously damage their credibility next cycle and people might stop reading them.

For this reason, I am curious as to whether Trafalgar will begin to produce numbers that are closer to the national media and academic pollsters around the end of the election season so as to retain their credibility for next time, in case there isn't a significant R bias in most state polling this cycle.  

Typically all they have to do is pick the winning team. If a Republican wins by 2 and they had the Democrat ahead by 1, that'd be seen by many as more egregious of an error than if they had the Republican up by 10. I wonder if all these Biden +1 or +2 results are their way of being on what they expect to be the winning side in order to maintain credibility.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #17 on: September 30, 2020, 11:27:19 AM »

Biden is now leading in MI, WI, and PA Trafalgar polls, even though they weigh them according to the fictitious “shy Trunp voter effect.”
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AGA
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« Reply #18 on: September 30, 2020, 11:32:54 AM »

The nice thing about Trafalgar polls is that if Biden is leading in them, you know that Biden must be ahead.
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Xing
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« Reply #19 on: September 30, 2020, 11:34:19 AM »

If even TrafLOLgar has Biden winning MI/PA/WI, Trump is unquestionably down in those states and it's probably not close. Short of a huge game changer at the last minute, it's hard to see how Trump wins, even if he overperforms the polls by a bit.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #20 on: September 30, 2020, 11:43:29 AM »

Is this just because the Biden campaign finally got their sings out? I mean, if part of the weighting they do is based on how people think their neighbors will vote.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #21 on: September 30, 2020, 12:13:05 PM »

The nice thing about Trafalgar polls is that if Biden is leading in them, you know that Biden must be ahead.

I mean in 2018 their final MI poll was Stabenow +9 while the final margin was Stabenow +7 Tongue.  I think Biden wins MI by 4 points IMO.
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Woody
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« Reply #22 on: September 30, 2020, 12:13:35 PM »

Toss-up.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #23 on: September 30, 2020, 12:15:26 PM »

The nice thing about Trafalgar polls is that if Biden is leading in them, you know that Biden must be ahead.

I mean in 2018 their final MI poll was Stabenow +9 while the final margin was Stabenow +7 Tongue.  I think Biden wins MI by 4 points IMO.

That was before they started padding Republican numbers for imaginary voters.
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Rand
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« Reply #24 on: September 30, 2020, 06:19:22 PM »

Proud boys, get your mustache cream ready and stand by...
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