UMass-Lowell/YouGov: Biden +8% in NH, NC tied, Trump +3% in TX
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  UMass-Lowell/YouGov: Biden +8% in NH, NC tied, Trump +3% in TX
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Author Topic: UMass-Lowell/YouGov: Biden +8% in NH, NC tied, Trump +3% in TX  (Read 1418 times)
JRP1994
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« on: September 29, 2020, 12:33:45 PM »

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Horus
Sheliak5
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« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2020, 12:35:27 PM »

This looks on the money. NH is pretty clearly safe Biden due to educated whites, NC is a coin flip and TX is lean Trump.
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redjohn
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« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2020, 12:35:57 PM »

Didn't buy the NH poll earlier this month showing a closer race. Biden easily wins there.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2020, 12:37:19 PM »

Good stuff. Trump's numbers in Texas continue to be a problem for him.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2020, 12:39:31 PM »

This just confirms what's going on. About a 7 point race nationally.
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2020, 12:41:32 PM »

With the exception of NH which I think will be within 3 points and closer than MI/MN , the polls are exactly around where I expect the states to vote in November
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PHARAOH BAKARI SELLERS
olawakandi
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« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2020, 12:48:19 PM »

Polls have always overstated Biden support, he is a strong candidate but polls showing a 1964 landslide has been overstated
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forza nocta
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« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2020, 12:50:45 PM »

NH:
Biden 52%
Trump 44%

NC:
Biden 47%
Trump 47%

TX:
Trump 49%
Biden 46%

UMass's early October poll in 2016 had Hillary up 6, 45-39
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #8 on: September 29, 2020, 12:56:19 PM »

NC
September 18-25
921 likely voters
MoE: 4.1%

Jorgensen 2%
Hawkins 1%
Another candidate 0% (but some voters)
Undecided 2%

NH
September 17-25
657 likely voters
MoE: 4.6%

Hawkins 2%
Jorgensen 1%
Another candidate 0% (but some voters)
Undecided 1%

TX
September 18-25
882 likely voters
MoE: 4.3%

Jorgensen 2%
Another candidate 1%
Hawkins 1%
Undecided 1%
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VAR
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« Reply #9 on: September 29, 2020, 01:01:20 PM »

Without third party candidates:

NC
Trump 49% (+1)
Biden 48%

NH
Biden 53% (+9)
Trump 44%

TX
Trump 50% (+4)
Biden 46%
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Buzz
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« Reply #10 on: September 29, 2020, 01:01:52 PM »

Glad we finally got a NH poll.  I figure these are all pretty much on the money, although I think NC is lean Trump come 11/3.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11 on: September 29, 2020, 01:02:56 PM »

Without third party candidates:

NC
Trump 49% (+1)
Biden 48%

NH
Biden 53% (+9)
Trump 44%

TX
Trump 50% (+4)
Biden 46%

They do not explicitly mention Hawkins or Jorgensen but allow for "another candidate":

NC
Another candidate 2%
Undecided 2%

NH
Another candidate 0% (but some voters)
Undecided 1%

TX
Another candidate 2%
Undecided 2%
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #12 on: September 29, 2020, 02:17:23 PM »

That sounds exactly right
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lfromnj
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« Reply #13 on: September 29, 2020, 03:43:49 PM »

Texas poll is junk !, +4 Biden among hispanics.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #14 on: September 29, 2020, 03:44:50 PM »

Texas poll is junk !, +4 Biden among hispanics.
Yeah that's been a massive issue with Texas polls lately, they all show Trump in the lead by 1-5 points....but they all have hispanics close. If the Univision poll is right, Biden should win TX by 3-5 if those hispanic numbers verify.
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Ljube
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« Reply #15 on: September 29, 2020, 03:46:04 PM »

If these results are accurate, I don't see how Trump can win the election.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: September 29, 2020, 07:03:40 PM »

Wow, Trump is only up by 3 while losing Hispanics by 4.. which we all know ain't happening. TX continues to be a dead heat.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #17 on: September 30, 2020, 05:57:27 PM »
« Edited: September 30, 2020, 06:03:05 PM by Monstro Still Believes in a Blue Texas »

Wow, Trump is only up by 3 while losing Hispanics by 4.. which we all know ain't happening. TX continues to be a dead heat.

The margins in these Texas polls seem predicated on how well Hispanics are sampled.

I'd like to plot it with previous polls, but it feels like these Trump 3+ polls are due to polling within 10% of Hispanics and in the 40s with them. Since Bush 2004, only Gov. Abbott seems to have gotten close by losing them 55-44 & 53-42 in 2014/2018 respectively (Based on exit polls).

Unless Trump has an Abbott-esque performance with Hispanics, I think we're seeing another "Nevada problem" in the making
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #18 on: September 30, 2020, 06:43:45 PM »

How good are these guys anyways?

In general I would assume U-Mass would tend to have some quality political science polling folks running the joint, but still don't automatically trust Uni Polls, unless they got some meat on the bones to at least understand their record.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #19 on: October 04, 2020, 12:31:42 AM »

New Poll: Texas President by UMass Lowell on 2020-09-29

Summary: D: 46%, R: 49%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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