UMass-Lowell/YouGov: Biden +8% in NH, NC tied, Trump +3% in TX

[JRP1994]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1310995890832842752

[Horus]

This looks on the money. NH is pretty clearly safe Biden due to educated whites, NC is a coin flip and TX is lean Trump.

[redjohn]

Didn't buy the NH poll earlier this month showing a closer race. Biden easily wins there.

[KaiserDave]

Good stuff. Trump's numbers in Texas continue to be a problem for him.

[หมูเด้ง]

This just confirms what's going on. About a 7 point race nationally.

[OSR stands with Israel]

With the exception of NH which I think will be within 3 points and closer than MI/MN , the polls are exactly around where I expect the states to vote in November

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Polls have always overstated Biden support, he is a strong candidate but polls showing a 1964 landslide has been overstated

[forza nocta]

NH:
Biden 52%
Trump 44%

NC:
Biden 47%
Trump 47%

TX:
Trump 49%
Biden 46%

UMass's early October poll in 2016 had Hillary up 6, 45-39

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

NC
September 18-25
921 likely voters
MoE: 4.1%

Jorgensen 2%
Hawkins 1%
Another candidate 0% (but some voters)
Undecided 2%

NH
September 17-25
657 likely voters
MoE: 4.6%

Hawkins 2%
Jorgensen 1%
Another candidate 0% (but some voters)
Undecided 1%

TX
September 18-25
882 likely voters
MoE: 4.3%

Jorgensen 2%
Another candidate 1%
Hawkins 1%
Undecided 1%

[VAR]

Without third party candidates:

NC
Trump 49% (+1)
Biden 48%

NH
Biden 53% (+9)
Trump 44%

TX
Trump 50% (+4)
Biden 46%

[Buzz]

Glad we finally got a NH poll.  I figure these are all pretty much on the money, although I think NC is lean Trump come 11/3.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Without third party candidates:

NC
Trump 49% (+1)
Biden 48%

NH
Biden 53% (+9)
Trump 44%

TX
Trump 50% (+4)
Biden 46%

They do not explicitly mention Hawkins or Jorgensen but allow for "another candidate":

NC
Another candidate 2%
Undecided 2%

NH
Another candidate 0% (but some voters)
Undecided 1%

TX
Another candidate 2%
Undecided 2%

[Ferguson97]

That sounds exactly right

[lfromnj]

Texas poll is junk !, +4 Biden among hispanics.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Texas poll is junk !, +4 Biden among hispanics.

Yeah that's been a massive issue with Texas polls lately, they all show Trump in the lead by 1-5 points....but they all have hispanics close. If the Univision poll is right, Biden should win TX by 3-5 if those hispanic numbers verify.

[Ljube]

If these results are accurate, I don't see how Trump can win the election.

[wbrocks67]

Wow, Trump is only up by 3 while losing Hispanics by 4.. which we all know ain't happening. TX continues to be a dead heat.

[Interlocutor]

Wow, Trump is only up by 3 while losing Hispanics by 4.. which we all know ain't happening. TX continues to be a dead heat.

The margins in these Texas polls seem predicated on how well Hispanics are sampled.

I'd like to plot it with previous polls, but it feels like these Trump 3+ polls are due to polling within 10% of Hispanics and in the 40s with them. Since Bush 2004, only Gov. Abbott seems to have gotten close by losing them 55-44 & 53-42 in 2014/2018 respectively (Based on exit polls).

Unless Trump has an Abbott-esque performance with Hispanics, I think we're seeing another "Nevada problem" in the making

[NOVA Green]

How good are these guys anyways?

In general I would assume U-Mass would tend to have some quality political science polling folks running the joint, but still don't automatically trust Uni Polls, unless they got some meat on the bones to at least understand their record.

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Texas President by UMass Lowell on 2020-09-29

Summary: D: 46%, R: 49%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details