ND-DFM Research: Trump +19

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Changes with March 3-5, 2020 poll

Trump 56% (+1)
Biden 37% (-1)
Other candidate 3% (+1)
Undecided 4% (-1)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

We're likely looking at a reversion to a 2012-style result with these numbers.

Presumably Trump is being underestimated in a deep red state (polling tends to do that), but even if these figures are correct, there are far fewer voters here willing to split their tickets.

Even so, I hope they polled the Senate race here just to see how much Ahlers can limit Rounds' margin.

Edit: Ahlers is in the SD race and NDSEN isn't up for election - my mistake!

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

We're likely looking at a reversion to a 2012-style result with these numbers.

Although, ironically, it’s hard to imagine Heitkamp winning an open seat in 2020 like she did in 2012.

Agreed, but even if her appeal had remained 100% intact since then, it wasn't in the cards - she's ruled out running for office again. The only hopes for Democrats here (in non-Senate races, that is) are a new recruit who hasn't yet registered on the map, the Pomeroy brothers attempting comeback bids or Tim Mahoney (mayor of Sioux Falls).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

500 likely voters according to 538