PA-NYT/Siena: Biden +9

[pbrower2a]

Biden up 8-10 in all three of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin? Trump is a big longshot now.

Of course, longshots occasionally win at the horse-track, and there are huge numbers of horse races. This said, Trump was not this big a longshot in 2016.

[Badger]

Yeah the NYT. Credible source. 🤣

This but unironically. It's top-tier polling.

can't wait to see nevada + 11 on election day from this top-tier polling

That was actually Fox...

Damn liberal media! Amarite Republican1993? ( waits for the high five)

[Gracile]

*insert Dave Wasserman concern trolling about Western PA outside of Pittsburgh having more votes than Philadelphia and rejected ballots making a difference in a close race*

[Ljube]

Biden up 8-10 in all three of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin? Trump is a big longshot now.

Of course, longshots occasionally win at the horse-track, and there are huge numbers of horse races. This said, Trump was not this big a longshot in 2016.

So, Trump won't win Michigan this time?

[Badger]

Trump approval: 44/54 (-10)

Favorables:
Trump 44/54 (-10)
Biden 55/41 (+14)

Allegheny County: Biden 61-33 (+28)
Central: Trump 61-27 (+34)
East: Trump 49-45 (+4)
Northeast: Trump 50-43 (+7)
Philadelphia: Biden 83-7 (+76)
Philadelphia suburbs: Biden 54-30 (+24)
West: Trump 50-40 (+10)

In all seriousness, I suspect Biden's lead being this big is attributable by at least a couple points to m o e.

On other points, bident being down only 10 points in Western Pennsylvania outside Allegheny County, even assuming that definition of course includes Erie, is a really good result for him. It's not inconceivable he might flip beaver and / or Mercer County if that happens!

[wbrocks67]

This lines up with the most recent high quality live caller polls of PA.

NYT/Siena: Biden +9
Marist: Biden +8/9
Qunnipiac: Biden +8
Fox News: Biden +7

[Trends Are Fake]

If Trump is losing PA by 9 and CA by 40, if he is tied in AK and NC, he must be winning AZ and maybe NV and NH and that would mean he is winning the election.

Sorry to tell you, but your calculator app is broken.

Dude, he was being sarcastic.

[ProgressiveModerate]

But... PA was supposed to be titanium tilt R

[Ljube]

But... PA was supposed to be titanium tilt R

Only through the Supreme Court.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

But... PA was supposed to be titanium tilt R

Rs want to believe that, due to fact, they believe we are in a 4 percent unemployment rate, and Trump is gonna repeat what he did against Biden. We are at 8 Percent unemployment, the same as we were in 2008

[Yoda]

Ouch. In the field pre-trump tax story, which Biden will use to destroy donald in the debate tomorrow.

[republican1993]

Yeah the NYT. Credible source. 🤣

This but unironically. It's top-tier polling.

can't wait to see nevada + 11 on election day from this top-tier polling

That was actually Fox...

too much polling but i do disagree with fox's polls too

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Yeah the NYT. Credible source. 🤣

This but unironically. It's top-tier polling.

can't wait to see nevada + 11 on election day from this top-tier polling

That was actually Fox...

too much polling but i do disagree with fox's polls too

Fox News polls have a 75% accuracy rate - which is very high .

[Badger]

If Trump is losing PA by 9 and CA by 40, if he is tied in AK and NC, he must be winning AZ and maybe NV and NH and that would mean he is winning the election.

Sorry to tell you, but your calculator app is broken.

Dude, he was being sarcastic.

Dude, have you read his posting history? Don't be too sure.

[republican1993]

Yeah the NYT. Credible source. 🤣

This but unironically. It's top-tier polling.

can't wait to see nevada + 11 on election day from this top-tier polling

That was actually Fox...

too much polling but i do disagree with fox's polls too

Fox News polls have a 75% accuracy rate - which is very high .

well if they are right on election day trump's screwed haha + i'll take them more seriously

[Andy Hine]

But... PA was supposed to be titanium tilt R

Rs want to believe that, due to fact, they believe we are in a 4 percent unemployment rate, and Trump is gonna repeat what he did against Biden. We are at 8 Percent unemployment, the same as we were in 2008

You mention the unemployment rate in literally every post. Please talk about something else.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

But... PA was supposed to be titanium tilt R

Rs want to believe that, due to fact, they believe we are in a 4 percent unemployment rate, and Trump is gonna repeat what he did against Biden. We are at 8 Percent unemployment, the same as we were in 2008

You mention the unemployment rate in literally every post. Please talk about something else.

Yes, the Rs on this site are complacent and think since things are back open we are in recovery, we aren't, schools, libraries and large events aren't open. We are at 8 Percent unemployment

The Rs keep putting up a map showing PA going R, they need to talk about something else, too. While every poll comes out showing Biden winning PA. When they stop, I will stop

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Good poll for Biden, but they are still not sufficiently adjusting for education.

According to the Census, 30% of Pennsylvanians have a bachelor's degree or higher and only 12% have an advanced degree. But according to the crosstabs here, the numbers are 38% and 15%, respectively.

At least based on his Twitter, I’m not sure there is a single person on the planet more obsessed with weighting by education than Nate Cohn.  So I’d be inclined to trust him on this issue, and if anything expect NYT polls to be overly vigilant in weighting along this dimension.

You can’t use census data to weight by education, but people with less education are MUCH less likely to vote than those with higher education.  The 2016 PA exist polls were 38% bachelor’s or higher, and 19% graduate degree, so this specific poll seems fine on that front in any case.

[Trends Are Fake]

But... PA was supposed to be titanium tilt R

Rs want to believe that, due to fact, they believe we are in a 4 percent unemployment rate, and Trump is gonna repeat what he did against Biden. We are at 8 Percent unemployment, the same as we were in 2008

You mention the unemployment rate in literally every post. Please talk about something else.

Questioning olawakandi? Hold that L my dude.

[Gass3268]

Trump approval: 44/54 (-10)

Favorables:
Trump 44/54 (-10)
Biden 55/41 (+14)

Allegheny County: Biden 61-33 (+28)
Central: Trump 61-27 (+34)
East: Trump 49-45 (+4)
Northeast: Trump 50-43 (+7)
Philadelphia: Biden 83-7 (+76)
Philadelphia suburbs: Biden 54-30 (+24)
West: Trump 50-40 (+10)

Here is the region map.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1310699457982476288?s=20

[Gass3268]

I did the math on those regions based on the map (to the best of my ability to pick out what counties are in what region) and here are the swings based on the 2016 results:

Allegheny County - Biden +11.37%
Central - Biden +8.46%
East - Biden +9.87%
Northeast - Biden +13.14%
Philadelphia - Biden +8.84%
Philadelphia Suburbs - Biden +10.00%
West - Biden +14.95%