PA-NYT/Siena: Biden +9

[Pericles]

Also it is interesting that in one sense there is an enthusiasm gap that is hurting Trump. 11% of people just somewhat approve of Trump, while only 7% somewhat disapprove of him, which means a lot more of Trump's support is 'unenthusiastic' than his opposition.

[Hassan 2022]

40% for Trump lol.

That’s how you know this is not right. Come on, man.

No, this is how you know Trump is failing bigly!

[Buzz]

Probably about as accurate as their Biden +14 national poll back in June

[jd7171]

I would love to see what specific counties make up their regional breakdowns...but either way Biden seems to be in a good position heading into the last stretch of this election cycle. The clock is ticking for Trump.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, Beet keep telling us that PA is red appalachian and it's not, it's a blue state that Wolf won by 17 pts, Biden slide

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Probably about as accurate as their Biden +14 national poll back in June

You believe that Biden +2 national poll released today but yet you say this, lol.

[Ferguson97]

Probably about as accurate as their Biden +14 national poll back in June

Cope

[Beet]

Good poll for Biden, but they are still not sufficiently adjusting for education.

According to the Census, 30% of Pennsylvanians have a bachelor's degree or higher and only 12% have an advanced degree. But according to the crosstabs here, the numbers are 38% and 15%, respectively.

[Niemeyerite]

I would love to see what specific counties make up their regional breakdowns...but either way Biden seems to be in a good position heading into the last stretch of this election cycle. The clock is ticking for Trump.

Finally a republican saying something that's not obviously malarkey in this thread!

[Alben Barkley]

Probably about as accurate as their Biden +14 national poll back in June

Which could have been very accurate. Polls are snapshots in time, not predictions of the final result.

[psychprofessor]

PA moves from Lean Biden to Likely Biden

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The problem is Mike Pence, he has all but disappeared since he hasn't held any press briefings with his Covid Task Force, that's why Trump is losing, he neutralized the female vote in 2016, with Benghazi Hillary. He needs a new running mate, as voters like Harris

Pence can't hold any Press Briefings, there no new ground on reopenings

[KaiserDave]

Nice

[demoman1596]

Good poll for Biden, but they are still not sufficiently adjusting for education.

According to the Census, 30% of Pennsylvanians have a bachelor's degree or higher and only 12% have an advanced degree. But according to the crosstabs here, the numbers are 38% and 15%, respectively.

That may be, but have you accounted for the fact that voters are a bit more likely to hold a college degree than the general adult population?

[Bootes Void]

Good poll for Biden, but they are still not sufficiently adjusting for education.

According to the Census, 30% of Pennsylvanians have a bachelor's degree or higher and only 12% have an advanced degree. But according to the crosstabs here, the numbers are 38% and 15%, respectively.

That may be, but have you accounted for the fact that voters are a bit more likely to hold a college degree than the general adult population?

People may also exaggerate their education unless if there is a government that would double check it

[Gass3268]

Biden is winning 23% of Republicans in the areas you'd expect.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1310703501211729921?s=20

[Rand]

[Beet]

Good poll for Biden, but they are still not sufficiently adjusting for education.

According to the Census, 30% of Pennsylvanians have a bachelor's degree or higher and only 12% have an advanced degree. But according to the crosstabs here, the numbers are 38% and 15%, respectively.

That may be, but have you accounted for the fact that voters are a bit more likely to hold a college degree than the general adult population?

In general? Perhaps. But Trump appears to have a special appeal to non-educated voters and can get them to turn out for him. Turnout gap (undervotes among non college educated) will be a lot less in a Trump vs. D election than a Romney/McCain/Bush vs. D election. I admit I have no proof of this but I heavily suspect.

[tagimaucia]

Good poll for Biden, but they are still not sufficiently adjusting for education.

According to the Census, 30% of Pennsylvanians have a bachelor's degree or higher and only 12% have an advanced degree. But according to the crosstabs here, the numbers are 38% and 15%, respectively.

That may be, but have you accounted for the fact that voters are a bit more likely to hold a college degree than the general adult population?

In general? Perhaps. But Trump appears to have a special appeal to non-educated voters and can get them to turn out for him. Turnout gap (undervotes among non college educated) will be a lot less in a Trump vs. D election than a Romney/McCain/Bush vs. D election. I admit I have no proof of this but I heavily suspect.

There actually wasn't a turnout surge for non-college whites in 2016 at all, at least nationally.  I'm not sure about state-by-state, maybe Trump got one in specific states that ended up mattering.  

Trump obviously did way better with that group than Romney or McCain and its possible there could be an actual surge this year.  But there wasn't an overall turnout surge the way Obama got one with African Americans in 2008/2012 and with young people in 2008.

[Pericles]

Good poll for Biden, but they are still not sufficiently adjusting for education.

According to the Census, 30% of Pennsylvanians have a bachelor's degree or higher and only 12% have an advanced degree. But according to the crosstabs here, the numbers are 38% and 15%, respectively.

That may be, but have you accounted for the fact that voters are a bit more likely to hold a college degree than the general adult population?

In general? Perhaps. But Trump appears to have a special appeal to non-educated voters and can get them to turn out for him. Turnout gap (undervotes among non college educated) will be a lot less in a Trump vs. D election than a Romney/McCain/Bush vs. D election. I admit I have no proof of this but I heavily suspect.

Or maybe educated voters are a lot more energised than usual and turnout will soar to historic levels among them? That seems more likely based on the evidence we've been seeing, even the Biden results in the Virginia primary. Your point might have been partially true in 2016, but after Trump abandoned his economic moderation and has been a disaster as President, plus Biden being less of a turnoff to these people than Hillary, the same energy doesn't seem to be there for non college voters.

[MplsDem]

Good poll for Biden, but they are still not sufficiently adjusting for education.

According to the Census, 30% of Pennsylvanians have a bachelor's degree or higher and only 12% have an advanced degree. But according to the crosstabs here, the numbers are 38% and 15%, respectively.

Where are you seeing 38% and 15%?  On the last page of the crosstabs, I see 23% with a bachelor's degree and 15% with a graduate degree.  So 38% total, which seems like it's at the high end of reasonable.

[Paul Biya isn’t going far enough]

Throw it in the average and shut up about it.

[jd7171]

I would love to see what specific counties make up their regional breakdowns...but either way Biden seems to be in a good position heading into the last stretch of this election cycle. The clock is ticking for Trump.

Finally a republican saying something that's not obviously malarkey in this thread!

Thanks for the kind words. I'm a rare breed of Republican. I'm a moderate.

[lfromnj]

Wait im sure because this is good for Biden it will only be a 1 page thread?
Thats what atlas says everytime there is a mediocre poll for Biden?

[Badger]

If Trump is losing PA by 9 and CA by 40, if he is tied in AK and NC, he must be winning AZ and maybe NV and NH and that would mean he is winning the election.

Sorry to tell you, but your calculator app is broken.