PA-NYT/Siena: Biden +9
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  PA-NYT/Siena: Biden +9		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: PA-NYT/Siena: Biden +9  (Read 4029 times)
redjohn
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« Reply #25 on: September 28, 2020, 04:29:44 PM »

I too enjoy picking which polls are true based solely on their results
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #26 on: September 28, 2020, 04:30:18 PM »
I'm still skeptical of that large of a margin come Election Day BUT....

PQG is a happy girl.  
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republican1993
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« Reply #27 on: September 28, 2020, 04:30:31 PM »

can't wait to see nevada + 11 on election day from this top-tier polling
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Buzz
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« Reply #28 on: September 28, 2020, 04:30:36 PM »
Undecideds ftw
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #29 on: September 28, 2020, 04:31:13 PM »
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/28/us/politics/supreme-court-pennsylvania-poll.html

Siena College/NYT Upshot
September 25-27
711 likely voters
MoE: 4.3%
Changes with October 16-25, 2019 poll (their last Likely Voters poll)

Biden 49% (+3)
Trump 40% (-5)
Other 10%
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Hammy
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« Reply #30 on: September 28, 2020, 04:32:27 PM »

"I live in a fantasy world where the only truth is what I want to believe."
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #31 on: September 28, 2020, 04:32:40 PM »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on September 28, 2020, 04:31:13 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/28/us/politics/supreme-court-pennsylvania-poll.html

Siena College/NYT Upshot
September 25-27
711 likely voters
MoE: 4.3%
Changes with October 16-25, 2019 poll (their last Likely Voters poll)

Biden 49% (+3)
Trump 40% (-5)
Other 10%

Yikes!
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #32 on: September 28, 2020, 04:32:48 PM »
Quote from: republican1993 on September 28, 2020, 04:30:31 PM

can't wait to see nevada + 11 on election day from this top-tier polling

AK/NV polls seem to be the most challenging states and outliers do exist, but there's no reason not to put this one in the average and give it a decent weighting.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #33 on: September 28, 2020, 04:33:17 PM »
Quote from: republican1993 on September 28, 2020, 04:30:31 PM

can't wait to see nevada + 11 on election day from this top-tier polling

That was actually Fox...
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Devils30
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« Reply #34 on: September 28, 2020, 04:35:15 PM »
Crosstabs:

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/pa-0920-crosstabs/0d7e4a610ceeb14b/full.pdf
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redjohn
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« Reply #35 on: September 28, 2020, 04:36:17 PM »
Anyways, this poll is awful for Trump. He's not winning the election without PA, and he's trailing by IA 2016-style margins here.
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MplsDem
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« Reply #36 on: September 28, 2020, 04:36:19 PM »
Wow, great poll for Scranton Joe.  It will be interesting to see if the ABC/WaPost PA poll tonight corroborates these numbers, especially in light of how mediocre their last polls in FL and AZ were for Biden.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #37 on: September 28, 2020, 04:36:23 PM »

Of that "10% other":

Jorgensen 2%
Someone else 0%
Not voting for president 0%
Don't know/refused 8%
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Holmes
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« Reply #38 on: September 28, 2020, 04:36:45 PM »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on September 28, 2020, 04:31:13 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/28/us/politics/supreme-court-pennsylvania-poll.html

Siena College/NYT Upshot
September 25-27
711 likely voters
MoE: 4.3%
Changes with October 16-25, 2019 poll (their last Likely Voters poll)

Biden 49% (+3)
Trump 40% (-5)
Other 10%

I wonder who was included in their LV model a whole year out.
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Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy
darthpi
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« Reply #39 on: September 28, 2020, 04:37:17 PM »
Fantastic
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VAR
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« Reply #40 on: September 28, 2020, 04:37:38 PM »
Trump approval: 44/54 (-10)

Favorables:
Trump 44/54 (-10)
Biden 55/41 (+14)

Allegheny County: Biden 61-33 (+28)
Central: Trump 61-27 (+34)
East: Trump 49-45 (+4)
Northeast: Trump 50-43 (+7)
Philadelphia: Biden 83-7 (+76)
Philadelphia suburbs: Biden 54-30 (+24)
West: Trump 50-40 (+10)
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President Johnson
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« Reply #41 on: September 28, 2020, 04:37:44 PM »
SCRANTON JOE
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #42 on: September 28, 2020, 04:38:17 PM »
YES DADDY, DOMINATE IT!
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #43 on: September 28, 2020, 04:39:07 PM »
Quote from: VARepublican on September 28, 2020, 04:37:38 PM
Trump approval: 44/54 (-10)

Favorables:
Trump 44/54 (-10)
Biden 55/41 (+14)

The people of the great state of Pennsylvania want SCRANTON JOE to get rid of all malarkey!
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Holmes
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« Reply #44 on: September 28, 2020, 04:39:07 PM »

Undecided vote is more older, non-white and especially independent.
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CellarDoor
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« Reply #45 on: September 28, 2020, 04:40:26 PM »
One thing that has become clear to me is that the Democratic convention was a huge success.  The goal for the convention was clearly to improve Biden's polling on the likeability/trustworthy metrics.  He's had good polling on these metrics ever since. 
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Holmes
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« Reply #46 on: September 28, 2020, 04:43:00 PM »
I don’t know exactly how the NYT defines each region but Biden is killing it in Philly and the burbs and Allegheny county, Trump killing it in central PA and doing well in the west with small a Trump leads in the east and northeast.
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Pericles
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« Reply #47 on: September 28, 2020, 04:44:16 PM »
Those approval and favorability numbers make Biden's lead seem more solid. A majority of undecideds are non-white, which should be great for Biden, but the other crosstabs are less clear on the undecideds.
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kireev
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« Reply #48 on: September 28, 2020, 04:44:32 PM »
« Edited: September 28, 2020, 05:01:00 PM by kireev »
Quote from: VARepublican on September 28, 2020, 04:37:38 PM
Trump approval: 44/54 (-10)

Favorables:
Trump 44/54 (-10)
Biden 55/41 (+14)

Allegheny County: Biden 61-33 (+28)
Central: Trump 61-27 (+34)
East: Trump 49-45 (+4)
Northeast: Trump 50-43 (+7)
Philadelphia: Biden 83-7 (+76)
Philadelphia suburbs: Biden 54-30 (+24)
West: Trump 50-40 (+10)

Trump's approval is actually not too bad. But that Biden's favorability.. holly cow!
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #49 on: September 28, 2020, 04:46:15 PM »
Very happy to see that Pennsylvania is 7 points to the left of the nation!
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