WI-Trafalgar Group: Biden +3

[DrScholl]

Wow this state has moved completely out of reach for Trump.

3 points is out of reach? Wtf are you smoking.

These numbers are with pro-Trump weighting for hidden voters. If being down three is the best a Republican pollster can show for him then he's not winning the state again.

The previous recent polls had Biden +9 and +10 in Wisconsin. I’d take +3 with a month to go for Trump being able to pull it off.

My main point is the radical swings we keep seeing in all the swing states (bar PA which has been fairly stable). There’s no consistency, and therefore no credibility in any of these numbers.

Those are polls that don't add biased methodology to account for hidden voters. Trafalgar could be essentially double counting some Trump voters and yet they still have him trailing. The reputable polls are the ones that count.

[Ljube]

Wow this state has moved completely out of reach for Trump.

3 points is out of reach? Wtf are you smoking.

These numbers are with pro-Trump weighting for hidden voters. If being down three is the best a Republican pollster can show for him then he's not winning the state again.

The previous recent polls had Biden +9 and +10 in Wisconsin. I’d take +3 with a month to go for Trump being able to pull it off.

My main point is the radical swings we keep seeing in all the swing states (bar PA which has been fairly stable). There’s no consistency, and therefore no credibility in any of these numbers.

Those are polls that don't add biased methodology to account for hidden voters. Trafalgar could be essentially double counting some Trump voters and yet they still have him trailing. The reputable polls are the ones that count.

The reputable polls were off by more than 7 points in 2016.

[redjohn]

Wow this state has moved completely out of reach for Trump.

3 points is out of reach? Wtf are you smoking.

These numbers are with pro-Trump weighting for hidden voters. If being down three is the best a Republican pollster can show for him then he's not winning the state again.

The previous recent polls had Biden +9 and +10 in Wisconsin. I’d take +3 with a month to go for Trump being able to pull it off.

My main point is the radical swings we keep seeing in all the swing states (bar PA which has been fairly stable). There’s no consistency, and therefore no credibility in any of these numbers.

There's nothing indicating Trump will hold onto WI. His 2016 was a fluke caused by HRC's awful candidacy that completely took the state for granted. Democrats swept the state in 2018, turnout among Democrats is going to be sky-high and Trump can kiss WI goodbye. Where is he going to build on his margin? The suburbs? They're swinging towards Biden. The floor already fell out from beneath Clinton in 2016 in much of rural WI, and Biden will almost certainly over-perform her in nearly every region of the state. It's not just polls (which show Biden leading), it's the reports from the ground that spelled trouble for HRC in 2016. Biden's got WI on his side, just watch.

[Hammy]

Wow this state has moved completely out of reach for Trump.

3 points is out of reach? Wtf are you smoking.

These numbers are with pro-Trump weighting for hidden voters. If being down three is the best a Republican pollster can show for him then he's not winning the state again.

The previous recent polls had Biden +9 and +10 in Wisconsin. I’d take +3 with a month to go for Trump being able to pull it off.

My main point is the radical swings we keep seeing in all the swing states (bar PA which has been fairly stable). There’s no consistency, and therefore no credibility in any of these numbers.

Those are polls that don't add biased methodology to account for hidden voters. Trafalgar could be essentially double counting some Trump voters and yet they still have him trailing. The reputable polls are the ones that count.

The reputable polls were off by more than 7 points in 2016.

Because there was still 10+ % undecided by election day. That's just asking for an upset.

But neither candidate under-performed their polling average, in fact even Hillary exceeded it by a point or two. Not to mention Trump actually broke even with--or under-performed--all of Trafalgar's polls.

[Ljube]

Wow this state has moved completely out of reach for Trump.

3 points is out of reach? Wtf are you smoking.

These numbers are with pro-Trump weighting for hidden voters. If being down three is the best a Republican pollster can show for him then he's not winning the state again.

The previous recent polls had Biden +9 and +10 in Wisconsin. I’d take +3 with a month to go for Trump being able to pull it off.

My main point is the radical swings we keep seeing in all the swing states (bar PA which has been fairly stable). There’s no consistency, and therefore no credibility in any of these numbers.

Those are polls that don't add biased methodology to account for hidden voters. Trafalgar could be essentially double counting some Trump voters and yet they still have him trailing. The reputable polls are the ones that count.

The reputable polls were off by more than 7 points in 2016.

Because there was still 10+ % undecided by election day. That's just asking for an upset.

But neither candidate under-performed their polling average, in fact even Hillary exceeded it by a point or two. Not to mention Trump actually broke even with--or under-performed--all of Trafalgar's polls.

There were no undecideds in the final polls and they still underestimated Trump by 7 points. They got Clinton right.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Wow this state has moved completely out of reach for Trump.

3 points is out of reach? Wtf are you smoking.

These numbers are with pro-Trump weighting for hidden voters. If being down three is the best a Republican pollster can show for him then he's not winning the state again.

The previous recent polls had Biden +9 and +10 in Wisconsin. I’d take +3 with a month to go for Trump being able to pull it off.

My main point is the radical swings we keep seeing in all the swing states (bar PA which has been fairly stable). There’s no consistency, and therefore no credibility in any of these numbers.

Those are polls that don't add biased methodology to account for hidden voters. Trafalgar could be essentially double counting some Trump voters and yet they still have him trailing. The reputable polls are the ones that count.

The reputable polls were off by more than 7 points in 2016.

Because there was still 10+ % undecided by election day. That's just asking for an upset.

But neither candidate under-performed their polling average, in fact even Hillary exceeded it by a point or two. Not to mention Trump actually broke even with--or under-performed--all of Trafalgar's polls.

There were no undecideds in the final polls and they still underestimated Trump by 7 points. They got Clinton right.

This is not true at all. Stop lying.

[lfromnj]

Seems pretty accurate to the final result I think. I think Bidens up by another point or two right now as Marquette says.

[lfromnj]

Wow this state has moved completely out of reach for Trump.

3 points is out of reach? Wtf are you smoking.

These numbers are with pro-Trump weighting for hidden voters. If being down three is the best a Republican pollster can show for him then he's not winning the state again.

The previous recent polls had Biden +9 and +10 in Wisconsin. I’d take +3 with a month to go for Trump being able to pull it off.

My main point is the radical swings we keep seeing in all the swing states (bar PA which has been fairly stable). There’s no consistency, and therefore no credibility in any of these numbers.

Those are polls that don't add biased methodology to account for hidden voters. Trafalgar could be essentially double counting some Trump voters and yet they still have him trailing. The reputable polls are the ones that count.

You mean Marquette that had Biden up 4 in the most recent poll?

[pbrower2a]

Lord Haw Haw must be the spirit behind this pollster.