WI-Trafalgar Group: Biden +3

[The Other Castro]

Biden - 47.7%
Trump - 44.9%
Jorgensen - 2.5%
Other - 1.6%

Poll conducted Sep 22-24

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1310667192892088327

[🥥🌴]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Wow this state has moved completely out of reach for Trump.

[Hammy]

Only state to get the winner right in 2016, and still came two points to the right.

I'm no longer worried about how Wisconsin will go at this point.

[Ljube]

So, Trump is down in WI and PA, tied in MI, according to Trafalgar group.

While PA is still possible due to procedural issues playing in Trump's favor, WI doesn't seem even remotely possible.

[หมูเด้ง]

It was Trump +1 before the conventions.

[Skill and Chance]

Best state poll of the month for Biden.  Seriously.

[DrScholl]

Looks like Trafalgar is becoming less able to produce good results for Trump.

[Buzz]

Only state to get the winner right in 2016, and still came two points to the right.

I'm no longer worried about how Wisconsin will go at this point.

they didn’t poll Wisconsin in 2016. Be gone with ya Fake News!

[MT Treasurer]

Worth noting that they called WI for Clinton in 2016, but yes, looks like there’s a good chance WI might even vote to the left of PA and MI (probably due to above-average Republican dependence on suburban support + extreme Democratic turnout/gains in Milwaukee and Madison, which also sunk Walker in 2018).

Another meme (Wississippi/WI 5+ points to the right of MI and PA/WI 2020 = FL 2004) bites the dust.

[Ljube]

Worth noting that they called WI for Clinton in 2016, but yes, looks like there’s a good chance WI might even vote to the left of PA and MI (probably due to above-average Republican dependence on suburban support + extreme Democratic turnout/gains in Milwaukee and Madison, which also sunk Walker in 2018).

Another meme (Wississippi/WI 5+ points to the right of MI and PA/WI 2020 = FL 2004) bites the dust.

Interestingly enough, I also called WI for Clinton in 2016, but called PA and MI for Trump.
Will I be wrong about WI again?

[Buzz]

Literally not ONE poll had Trump winning Wisconsin in 2016.  I was beyond shocked on election night when the returns began coming in.  

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

1189 likely voters
MoE: 2.76%
Changes with August 14-23 poll
Trends calculated pre-rounding

Biden 48% (+2)
Trump 45% (-1)
Jorgensen 3% (-1)
Another Party Candidate 2% (n/c)
Undecided 3% (n/c)

[Dr. Arch]

WI is running away from Trump, and you can see it across most of the state.

[Alben Barkley]

[redjohn]

WI is going for Biden this cycle. Trump won because many Democrats didn't turn out in 2016; they're voting this time, along with many, many newly "liberal" voters.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

If Trump can't lead in a WI Trafalgar poll he is done, the 8 Percent unemployment has finished him off just like it was in 2008

Trump had it easy, just like Bush W did when they ran on both Clinton and Obamas 4 percent unemployment

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Wow this state has moved completely out of reach for Trump.

3 points is out of reach? Wtf are you smoking.

[DrScholl]

Wow this state has moved completely out of reach for Trump.

3 points is out of reach? Wtf are you smoking.

These numbers are with pro-Trump weighting for hidden voters. If being down three is the best a Republican pollster can show for him then he's not winning the state again.

[Tintrlvr]

Looks like Trafalgar is becoming less able to produce good results for Trump.

Or they are intentionally putting out polls like this now so that they can show big movement towards him shortly before election day/after the debates/whatever.

[Alben Barkley]

WI is going for Biden this cycle. Trump won because many Democrats didn't turn out in 2016; they're voting this time, along with many, many newly "liberal" voters.

Yep. Of the three big states, Wisconsin was the only one where Trump got fewer votes than Romney did. I always thought that was a big red flag that clearly indicated he only won because of low turnout; yet for so long everyone insisted WI was far more likely than the others to stay R for some reason.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Wow this state has moved completely out of reach for Trump.

3 points is out of reach? Wtf are you smoking.

These numbers are with pro-Trump weighting for hidden voters. If being down three is the best a Republican pollster can show for him then he's not winning the state again.

The previous recent polls had Biden +9 and +10 in Wisconsin. I’d take +3 with a month to go for Trump being able to pull it off.

My main point is the radical swings we keep seeing in all the swing states (bar PA which has been fairly stable). There’s no consistency, and therefore no credibility in any of these numbers.

[Hammy]

Only state to get the winner right in 2016, and still came two points to the right.

I'm no longer worried about how Wisconsin will go at this point.

they didn’t poll Wisconsin in 2016. Be gone with ya Fake News!

I could've sworn they did, turns out they didn't after checking, I must've been thinking Michigan.

But I highly doubt they'd have a huge D error in WI given they called both Michigan and Pennsylvania correctly, albeit a few points to the right of the result.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Wow this state has moved completely out of reach for Trump.

3 points is out of reach? Wtf are you smoking.

These numbers are with pro-Trump weighting for hidden voters. If being down three is the best a Republican pollster can show for him then he's not winning the state again.

The previous recent polls had Biden +9 and +10 in Wisconsin. I’d take +3 with a month to go for Trump being able to pull off.

Um, this is a Trafalgar poll which is a noted Republican-friendly pollster and usually trash.

Those other polls that show Biden leading in Wisconsin by 8-10% are from reputable pollsters. Not comparable at all.

[Pericles]

Maybe Biden is doing better in WI than PA because WI is quite a bit whiter, and Biden is getting the biggest swings to him (or perhaps, any swing) among white voters. However, Michigan is about as white as Pennsylvania, but Biden is up by 6.9% in Michigan and 4.9% in Pennsylvania. Maybe then the results in those two states will be even closer together than the polls suggest, idk going by that theory if MI is overrated for Biden or PA is underrated.