Harvard CAPS/Harris poll - Biden+2
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  Harvard CAPS/Harris poll - Biden+2		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Harvard CAPS/Harris poll - Biden+2  (Read 1828 times)
Ljube
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« on: September 28, 2020, 02:27:43 PM »

LV:
Biden 47%
Trump 45%

The poll was carried out from Sept. 22 to Sept. 24, among 1,314 registered voters.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/518600-biden-holds-narrow-lead-over-trump-ahead-of-first-debate-poll
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Buzz
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« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2020, 02:28:58 PM »
Hmmmmmmmm


In b4 wbrocks67 unskews this to death and calls it junk.
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2020, 02:31:23 PM »
how is this different than the other poll, they are both done by harris polling.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2020, 02:33:31 PM »
Quote from: Ontario Nature Enthusiast on September 28, 2020, 02:31:23 PM
how is this different than the other poll, they are both done by harris polling.

Harris and HarrisX are annoyingly two different firms.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2020, 02:34:30 PM »
Quote from: Ontario Nature Enthusiast on September 28, 2020, 02:31:23 PM
how is this different than the other poll, they are both done by harris polling.

Harris and HarrisX are actually different polling entities, although one spun off from the other.

ISTR there's something weird about the CAPS poll methodology, but don't have time to look for it now.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2020, 02:35:09 PM »
Outlier until proven otherwise.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #6 on: September 28, 2020, 02:36:26 PM »
Sure, and my brother is James who drives a Ferrari.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: September 28, 2020, 02:37:53 PM »
Biden is up 4 with leaners, 52-48. Not that different from their last poll 53-47.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: September 28, 2020, 02:43:19 PM »
These polls that show different leads between Biden and Trump just want people to pay attention for the debates
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Splash
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« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2020, 02:46:45 PM »
In most cases (Trafalgar being the most notable exception), I default to the "throw it in the average and move on" position for polls with questionable methodology.

But Harvard CAPS/Harris, while a legitimate pollster, has been known to be a bit pushy with their questions. I'll wait to see the full write up before I judge, but let's just say that I wouldn't put a whole lot of trust in a firm led and operated by Mark Penn. The dude has been informally advising Trump on his reelection strategy.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #10 on: September 28, 2020, 02:47:14 PM »
I'm pretty confused...there are two separate national polls, one done by "Harris" and another done by "HarrisX", but both commissioned by The Hill and released simultaneously?
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #11 on: September 28, 2020, 02:48:56 PM »
At least pollsters aren't herding
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: September 28, 2020, 02:50:54 PM »
Quote from: Fmr. Gov. NickG on September 28, 2020, 02:47:14 PM
I'm pretty confused...there are two separate national polls, one done by "Harris" and another done by "HarrisX", but both commissioned by The Hill and released simultaneously?

This one is commissioned by Harvard.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #13 on: September 28, 2020, 02:52:22 PM »
BIDEN IS DOOMED
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #14 on: September 28, 2020, 02:53:37 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on September 28, 2020, 02:50:54 PM
Quote from: Fmr. Gov. NickG on September 28, 2020, 02:47:14 PM
I'm pretty confused...there are two separate national polls, one done by "Harris" and another done by "HarrisX", but both commissioned by The Hill and released simultaneously?

This one is commissioned by Harvard.

This is what it says at the bottom.  It also seems to be commissioned by The Hill, conducted jointly by Harvard and Harris.

Quote
The survey is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and The Harris Poll. The Hill will be working with Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll throughout 2020.
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Woody
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« Reply #15 on: September 28, 2020, 02:53:57 PM »
OMG
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #16 on: September 28, 2020, 02:54:47 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on September 28, 2020, 02:50:54 PM
Quote from: Fmr. Gov. NickG on September 28, 2020, 02:47:14 PM
I'm pretty confused...there are two separate national polls, one done by "Harris" and another done by "HarrisX", but both commissioned by The Hill and released simultaneously?

This one is commissioned by Harvard.

Sooooo.....it's garbage? Like a fair amount of things that come out of Harvard?

 
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #17 on: September 28, 2020, 03:00:43 PM »
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WD
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« Reply #18 on: September 28, 2020, 03:00:50 PM »
No.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #19 on: September 28, 2020, 03:39:40 PM »
Changes with August 31-September 2 poll
With leaners (estimated based on ~8% of the sample being leaners and these voters breaking 52-48 for Biden):

Biden 51% (-2)
Trump 49% (+2)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #20 on: September 28, 2020, 03:44:47 PM »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on September 28, 2020, 03:39:40 PM
Changes with August 31-September 2 poll
With leaners (estimated based on ~8% of the sample being leaners and these voters breaking 52-48 for Biden):

Biden 51% (-2)
Trump 49% (+2)

Quote
"The poll shows the race closing to 2 points with likely voters and 4 points with leaners as the president showed improvement in the economy that dipped below double-digit unemployment and hit the theme of curbing unrest on which he gained," said Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll director Mark Penn.

So 52-48 with leaners.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #21 on: September 28, 2020, 03:48:31 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on September 28, 2020, 03:44:47 PM
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on September 28, 2020, 03:39:40 PM
Changes with August 31-September 2 poll
With leaners (estimated based on ~8% of the sample being leaners and these voters breaking 52-48 for Biden):

Biden 51% (-2)
Trump 49% (+2)

Quote
"The poll shows the race closing to 2 points with likely voters and 4 points with leaners as the president showed improvement in the economy that dipped below double-digit unemployment and hit the theme of curbing unrest on which he gained," said Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll director Mark Penn.

So 52-48 with leaners.

I read that as "leaners are breaking 52-48 for Biden" leading to the overall sample going 51-49 with leaners incorporated. If you look at their last release, they had leaners breaking 58-42 for Trump yet the overall sample was 53-47 Biden.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/515192-biden-leads-trump-on-law-and-order-coronavirus-poll
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MidwestPollster
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« Reply #22 on: September 28, 2020, 03:56:14 PM »
What is Harvard’s history on polls?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: September 28, 2020, 06:38:46 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on September 28, 2020, 02:28:58 PM
Hmmmmmmmm


In b4 wbrocks67 unskews this to death and calls it junk.

It's junk and it's clearly an outlier. That's just a fact.
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Protect Trans Hoosiers
Beef
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« Reply #24 on: September 28, 2020, 11:44:04 PM »
Just average this with the LIU poll that had Biden up 18 Cheesy
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