Day Before First Debate: Post Your Predictions
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  Day Before First Debate: Post Your Predictions		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Day Before First Debate: Post Your Predictions  (Read 3105 times)
WD
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« Reply #25 on: September 28, 2020, 06:10:21 PM »
Quote from: McGarnagle's End Times Cavalcade on September 28, 2020, 06:00:15 PM


Biden 353 ~53%
Trump 185 ~45%
Jorgensen, Hawkins, West + Write-Ins ~2%

Biden wins the popular vote by a similar margin to Obama in 2008
His Electoral College margin is between Obama's 2008 and 2012 victories
Biden comes close to flipping Georgia, Iowa and Texas but doesn't quite do it
Still, a convincing win, as third party candidates fail to gain much traction
The debates are embarrassing for Trump, as he is flayed over his taxes and COVID response

Trade OH for TX and this is my exact prediction.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #26 on: September 28, 2020, 06:10:54 PM »


I'm moving Nebraska 2nd to Biden now.
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Buzz
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« Reply #27 on: September 28, 2020, 06:15:38 PM »
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #28 on: September 28, 2020, 06:34:28 PM »
« Edited: September 28, 2020, 07:01:56 PM by pbrower2a »
Mine:



Biden: 375 EV, 54.8%
Trump: 158 EV, 43.9%


Trump is likely to have a "Captain Queeg" performance.
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Trends Are Fake
Stuart98
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« Reply #29 on: September 28, 2020, 06:36:17 PM »
Quote from: pbrower2a on September 28, 2020, 06:34:28 PM
Mine:



Trump: 158 EV, 43.9%
Biden: 375 EV, 54.8%

Trump is likely to have a "Captain Queeg" performance.

Did you mean to have ME02 be red? Blue ME02 would be 374 EVs for Biden.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #30 on: September 28, 2020, 06:37:35 PM »
Quote from: Stuart98 on September 28, 2020, 06:36:17 PM
Quote from: pbrower2a on September 28, 2020, 06:34:28 PM
Mine:

Trump is likely to have a "Captain Queeg" performance.

Did you mean to have ME02 be red? Blue ME02 would be 374 EVs for Biden.

Also, what happened to the other 5 EV?  375+158=533.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #31 on: September 28, 2020, 06:38:09 PM »
Yes, I missed ME-02. Thanks for catching that.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #32 on: September 28, 2020, 06:43:42 PM »


House if Safe D at this point; didn't bother making a model
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #33 on: September 28, 2020, 06:51:45 PM »
Quote from: Horatii on September 28, 2020, 05:43:02 PM
Mine:



Trump: 269 EV, 46.5% (wins with House vote)
Biden: 269 EV, 49.8%

Yeah and Biden is up by 9 in PA


Biden wins with 413 EC votes and TX
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CivicParticipant
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« Reply #34 on: September 28, 2020, 06:56:13 PM »

Biden would win if the election was held today.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #35 on: September 28, 2020, 06:59:50 PM »
Quote from: Rep. Spark on September 28, 2020, 06:56:13 PM

Biden would win if the election was held today.

What do you see changing in the next 35 days? Trump is running out of time to turn this around.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #36 on: September 28, 2020, 07:01:15 PM »
« Edited: September 28, 2020, 07:04:43 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »


Georgia, Ohio and Texas are pure tossups, but if I was forced to guess the way they'd fall, this would be it. With most other states' electoral laws, I'd assume the polling error would skew sufficiently Democratic to gift GA to Biden, but Kemp's interference makes that more of an open question.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #37 on: September 28, 2020, 07:06:33 PM »


Popular vote:
Biden 53
Trump 45
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #38 on: September 28, 2020, 07:29:56 PM »


Joe Biden: 335
Donald Trump: 203

I'm not sure about Georgia, but if you have a hot take your should go with it.
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Badger
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« Reply #39 on: September 28, 2020, 07:34:32 PM »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on September 28, 2020, 07:01:15 PM


Georgia, Ohio and Texas are pure tossups, but if I was forced to guess the way they'd fall, this would be it. With most other states' electoral laws, I'd assume the polling error would skew sufficiently Democratic to gift GA to Biden, but Kemp's interference makes that more of an open question.
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Turbo Flame
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« Reply #40 on: September 28, 2020, 07:34:55 PM »
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Mexican Wolf
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« Reply #41 on: September 28, 2020, 07:48:39 PM »
« Edited: September 28, 2020, 08:03:29 PM by Mexican Wolf »


Biden 51.5 - Trump 47
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Trends Are Fake
Stuart98
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« Reply #42 on: September 28, 2020, 07:50:44 PM »
Fixed.
Stop putting Utah in likely R guys, there's at least 8 states that are solid R in that map that will go blue before Utah does.
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Mexican Wolf
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« Reply #43 on: September 28, 2020, 07:56:12 PM »
Quote from: Stuart98 on September 28, 2020, 07:50:44 PM
Fixed.
Stop putting Utah in likely R guys, there's at least 8 states that are solid R in that map that will go blue before Utah does.

I was using the Safe/Likely/Lean colors for margins rather than the likelihood of flipping; I'm still predicting that Trump will run below the standard R baseline in Utah at this point.

Also, thank you for fixing my map, but I switched it out for a basic link to 270towin before I saw your update. Could you let me know what to do to make the share link from the site display properly on here?
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Trends Are Fake
Stuart98
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« Reply #44 on: September 28, 2020, 08:00:12 PM »
Quote from: Mexican Wolf on September 28, 2020, 07:56:12 PM
Quote from: Stuart98 on September 28, 2020, 07:50:44 PM
Fixed.
Stop putting Utah in likely R guys, there's at least 8 states that are solid R in that map that will go blue before Utah does.

I was using the Safe/Likely/Lean colors for margins rather than the likelihood of flipping; I'm still predicting that Trump will run below the standard R baseline in Utah at this point.

Also, thank you for fixing my map, but I switched it out for a basic link to 270towin before I saw your update. Could you let me know what to do to make the share link from the site display properly on here?
Code:
[img]imageurl.com/image.jpg[/img]
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W
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« Reply #45 on: September 28, 2020, 08:01:17 PM »


Biden/Harris: 335
Trump/Pence: 203
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Pericles
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« Reply #46 on: September 28, 2020, 08:10:13 PM »
Still guessing the 388 EV map.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #47 on: September 28, 2020, 08:20:43 PM »


Biden - 353
Trump - 185
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Buzz
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« Reply #48 on: September 28, 2020, 08:38:33 PM »
Quote from: Stuart98 on September 28, 2020, 05:57:00 PM


Biden 416 EV, 53% PV (~80 million votes)
Trump 122 EV, 44% PV (~66 million votes)
CRACK!
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Admiral Stockdale
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« Reply #49 on: September 28, 2020, 08:45:16 PM »
 https://www.270towin.com/maps/yGgbn

I can see GA, IA, OH, and maybe TX go to Biden too, but I am thinking Biden in the 330s as of today.
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