Day Before First Debate: Post Your Predictions
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  Day Before First Debate: Post Your Predictions		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Day Before First Debate: Post Your Predictions  (Read 3107 times)
Joe Boden
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« on: September 28, 2020, 01:36:23 PM »
I'm interested to see the consensus on this site
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Rep Jessica
Jessica
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« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2020, 01:37:54 PM »
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2020, 01:39:04 PM »
Biden = Hillary states + MI, PA, WI, AZ, FL, NE-2, ME-2.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2020, 01:55:52 PM »
With Tossups

Joe Biden - 270
Donald Trump - 131
Tossup - 137

Without Tossups

Joe Biden - 353
Donald Trump - 185
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WD
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« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2020, 01:58:16 PM »
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tinman64
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« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2020, 02:09:52 PM »
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Kuumo
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« Reply #6 on: September 28, 2020, 02:14:24 PM »
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #7 on: September 28, 2020, 03:05:39 PM »

the allocation is reasonable, but wtf is up with the shadings?
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AGA
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« Reply #8 on: September 28, 2020, 04:26:59 PM »
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Trends Are Fake
Stuart98
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« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2020, 04:29:10 PM »
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #10 on: September 28, 2020, 04:31:02 PM »
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Adjective-Statement
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« Reply #11 on: September 28, 2020, 04:31:36 PM »


President Donald Trump (R-FL) / Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) ✓
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) / Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)
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mardigrappa
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« Reply #12 on: September 28, 2020, 04:40:25 PM »
I'm just going to say it's going to be 2016 + WI, MI, PA, AZ, NE-2, NC, FL
And the popular vote breakdown is going to be 52% (76 million voters) to 45% (65 million voters) Dem vs Rep at the presidential election, with third party voters at 4 and a half million. Which would still be a good Biden win, but I don't believe these forecasts when they say Trump will only do as well as he did last time in 2016 (in the raw popular vote) especially  with the midterm voting surge on both sides in 2018.
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #13 on: September 28, 2020, 04:42:07 PM »
« Edited: September 28, 2020, 05:34:36 PM by Monstro Still Believes in a Blue Texas »
I guess I'll be the optimist here:
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #14 on: September 28, 2020, 04:43:28 PM »

Huh, Jessica -- that's interesting, girl.  What makes Michigan less certain for you than Pennsylvania or Wisconsin?
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Buzz
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« Reply #15 on: September 28, 2020, 05:16:16 PM »
There are some truly stupid maps being posted.  Don't do drugs kids!
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CivicParticipant
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« Reply #16 on: September 28, 2020, 05:21:30 PM »
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Horatii
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« Reply #17 on: September 28, 2020, 05:43:02 PM »
Mine:



Trump: 269 EV, 46.5% (wins with House vote)
Biden: 269 EV, 49.8%
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #18 on: September 28, 2020, 05:44:23 PM »
Biden ain't losing NE-2. Anyway prediction coming
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TC 25
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« Reply #19 on: September 28, 2020, 05:49:17 PM »
As of today:

Biden 50.6
Trump 45.5
Other 3.9

EV
Biden 319
Trump 219

But it wouldn't take much to swing FL, AZ and PA as well as the EV into the Trump column
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #20 on: September 28, 2020, 05:52:26 PM »
Quote from: Joe Boden on September 28, 2020, 01:36:23 PM
I'm interested to see the consensus on this site

You can see the site consensus of official predictions here: https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2020/pred.php.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #21 on: September 28, 2020, 05:52:29 PM »
https://www.270towin.com/maps/P73y9
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Trends Are Fake
Stuart98
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« Reply #22 on: September 28, 2020, 05:57:00 PM »
« Edited: September 28, 2020, 06:00:16 PM by Stuart98 »


Biden 416 EV, 53% PV (~80 million votes)
Trump 122 EV, 44% PV (~66 million votes)
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McGarnagle
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« Reply #23 on: September 28, 2020, 06:00:15 PM »


Biden 353 ~53%
Trump 185 ~45%
Jorgensen, Hawkins, West + Write-Ins ~2%

Biden wins the popular vote by a similar margin to Obama in 2008
His Electoral College margin is between Obama's 2008 and 2012 victories
Biden comes close to flipping Georgia, Iowa and Texas but doesn't quite do it
Still, a convincing win, as third party candidates fail to gain much traction
The debates are embarrassing for Trump, as he is flayed over his taxes and COVID response
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #24 on: September 28, 2020, 06:09:01 PM »
Quote from: McGarnagle's End Times Cavalcade on September 28, 2020, 06:00:15 PM


Biden 353 ~53%
Trump 185 ~45%
Jorgensen, Hawkins, West + Write-Ins ~2%

Biden wins the popular vote by a similar margin to Obama in 2008
His Electoral College margin is between Obama's 2008 and 2012 victories
Biden comes close to flipping Georgia, Iowa and Texas but doesn't quite do it
Still, a convincing win, as third party candidates fail to gain much traction
The debates are embarrassing for Trump, as he is flayed over his taxes and COVID response
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