Monmouth: Biden +5%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_092820/

September 24-27
Likely voter subsample not yet released but here are the results for it
MoE: 3.5% for 809 registered voters
Changes with September 3-8 poll

Biden 50% (-1)
Trump 45% (+1)
Hawkins 1% (n/c)
Jorgensen 1% (n/c)

[Dr. Arch]

Pretty much the same. Just noise.

[Horus]

Underwhelming.

[Illiniwek]

:/

Not a worrying shift, but if this is accurate, its a bit too close for comfort.

[Buzz]

Getting close enough to that 3-4 points Trump needs it to settle at.

[soundchaser]

Monmouth’s LV screen seems really tight this cycle...wonder if they’re on to something or overcompensating.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Biden is at 50%, so the margin is irrelevant. Also, pretty much every other poll shows Biden leading nationally by 7-10%. Throw it in the average.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Biden is at 50%, so the margin is irrelevant.

No.

[wbrocks67]

Y'all may have wanted to check the crosstabs. Trump winning Indies here - that has not borne out in any other poll really. Also Biden winning 18-34 year olds by.... 7%.

That being said, this is clearly an R-leaning sample (which has been the norm for Monmouth recently, not sure why), and Biden is still up by 5/6.

He's +6 in RV, +5 in LV. Generic ballot is +7 RV / +6 LV

[Devils30]

There are still big time red flags for Trump like Biden up 61-29 with moderates. If Trump is ahead with independents but down 32 with moderates it suggests the sample is a bit more conservative leaning. Overall its noise, Biden is pretty much +5-10 in every national poll with the median around 7-8.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Biden is at 50%, so the margin is irrelevant.

No.

Yes.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Biden is at 50%, so the margin is irrelevant.

No.

Yes.

1. Swing voters exist, although Biden having 44% of LVs saying they'd "definitely" vote for him suggests there really aren't many. Margin of error is also worth considering.
2. If the popular vote split 50% Biden - 47% Trump, I'd predict a Trump victory in the electoral college (not so with this sample's 50-45). I'd say the margin is still relevant.

[Skye]

Biden is at 50%, so the margin is irrelevant.

No.

Yes.

Hardly irrelevant if the results end up being 50.5-48 and Trump wins again b/c of the EC.

[KaiserDave]

5 pages? 7 pages? Let's see if Atlas can out do itself!

[Buzz]

Biden is at 50%, so the margin is irrelevant. Also, pretty much every other poll shows Biden leading nationally by 7-10%. Throw it in the average.

Biden can get over 50% and lose.....

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Their LV model uses the same sample size but just weights it differently, so this poll has 809 likely voters and a MoE of 3.5%

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Biden is at 50%, so the margin is irrelevant.

No.

Yes.

1. Swing voters exist, although Biden having 44% of LVs saying they'd "definitely" vote for him suggests there really aren't many. Margin of error is also worth considering.
2. If the popular vote split 50% Biden - 47% Trump, I'd predict a Trump victory in the electoral college (not so with this sample's 50-45). I'd say the margin is still relevant.

Biden is at 50%, so the margin is irrelevant.

No.

Yes.

Hardly irrelevant if the results end up being 50.5-48 and Trump wins again b/c of the EC.

Biden is at 50%, so the margin is irrelevant. Also, pretty much every other poll shows Biden leading nationally by 7-10%. Throw it in the average.

Biden can get over 50% and lose.....

READ AGAIN:

Also, pretty much every other poll shows Biden leading nationally by 7-10%. Throw it in the average.

[Bootes Void]

This is a 6 to 8 point race, if there is a poll where Biden leads by 10, you accept the one where Biden's leads by 5 as well. 

[psychprofessor]

Just take the average of 10, 10, 8 and 5. If Biden is up by 8 nationally he'll get some where he is up by 10 and some where he is up by 5.

[Horus]

This is a 6 to 8 point race, if there is a poll where Biden leads by 10, you accept the one where Biden's leads by 5 as well. 

The higher quality pollsters, Emerson, Monmouth etc are showing a 4-5 point race.

[Splash]

This is a 6 to 8 point race, if there is a poll where Biden leads by 10, you accept the one where Biden's leads by 5 as well. 

The higher quality pollsters, Emerson, Monmouth etc are showing a 4-5 point race.

LOL WHAT?!?

[WD]

This is a 6 to 8 point race, if there is a poll where Biden leads by 10, you accept the one where Biden's leads by 5 as well. 

The higher quality pollsters, Emerson, Monmouth etc are showing a 4-5 point race.

This isn’t a serious post, is it?

[Horus]

This is a 6 to 8 point race, if there is a poll where Biden leads by 10, you accept the one where Biden's leads by 5 as well. 

The higher quality pollsters, Emerson, Monmouth etc are showing a 4-5 point race.

LOL WHAT?!?

Emerson is no less reliable than MC but the latter is beloved here

[Gass3268]

This is a 6 to 8 point race, if there is a poll where Biden leads by 10, you accept the one where Biden's leads by 5 as well. 

The higher quality pollsters, Emerson, Monmouth etc are showing a 4-5 point race.

LOL WHAT?!?

Emerson is no less reliable than MC but the latter is beloved here

MTurk

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This is a 6 to 8 point race, if there is a poll where Biden leads by 10, you accept the one where Biden's leads by 5 as well. 

The higher quality pollsters, Emerson, Monmouth etc are showing a 4-5 point race.

Not entirely. ABC/WaPo is pointing to a 6-10% race, Siena/NYT is suggesting an 8% lead, Emerson's indicating 3%, Marquette has the lead at 10%, NBC/WSJ has it at 8%, Marist suggests 7-9% and IBD/TIPP has it at 6%.