NV-BUSR/UNLV/Qualtrics: Biden +5

[Tender Branson]

46% Biden
41% Trump
  4% Others

BUSR sponsored this poll of 641 self-identified Nevada likely voters. Qualtrics collected the data for this survey from September 10 to September 25, 2020. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4 percentage points.

BUSR intends to sponsor one final poll surveying the presidential preferences of Nevada likely voters. This poll will be released in November right before the election.

https://busr.ag/polls

[Buzz]

How people are still undecided is beyond me. 

[libertpaulian]

How Nevada continues to be even remotely competitive is beyond me. 

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Changes with August 20-30 poll

Biden 46% (+2)
Trump 41% (+2)
Another candidate 4% (-1)
None of the candidates 3% (not mentioned in previous release)
Undecided 6% (-6)

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

And now — “Democrats are underpolled!!!!”

Yes, that statement is true, Redtroll.

How Nevada continues to be even remotely competitive is beyond me. 

NV isn't competitive. A 5 point margin is fairly normal for Nevada. Additionally, polls underestimate Democrats in NV often.

[Stranger in a strange land]

And now — “Democrats are underpolled!!!!”

Yes, that statement is true, Redtroll.

How Nevada continues to be even remotely competitive is beyond me. 

NV isn't competitive. A 5 point margin is fairly normal for Nevada. Additionally, polls underestimate Democrats in NV often.

In every competitive election I've followed, Democrats overperform their polling in Nevada. Sometimes by a little and sometimes by a lot.

[YE]

And now — “Democrats are underpolled!!!!”

Yes, that statement is true, Redtroll.

How Nevada continues to be even remotely competitive is beyond me.  

NV isn't competitive. A 5 point margin is fairly normal for Nevada. Additionally, polls underestimate Democrats in NV often.

In every competitive election I've followed, Democrats overperform their polling in Nevada. Sometimes by a little and sometimes by a lot.

You use that argument to put yourself in a no-lose spot, regardless of what the poll says.

1). Poll comes out showing Democrats up by a lot. You say, "Nice, Dems up big!!"

2). Poll comes out showing Democrats up by a little. You say, "Don't worry. Dems always underpoll in Nevada. They are up big!!!"

3). Poll comes out showing Democrats losing. You'd say, "Nah. Dems always underpoll in Nevada. They are up by a little bit, maybe even up big!!"

What's the point of polling Nevada then?

There is a reason we haven't seen much polling out of the state this cycle.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

And now — “Democrats are underpolled!!!!”

Yes, that statement is true, Redtroll.

How Nevada continues to be even remotely competitive is beyond me.  

NV isn't competitive. A 5 point margin is fairly normal for Nevada. Additionally, polls underestimate Democrats in NV often.

In every competitive election I've followed, Democrats overperform their polling in Nevada. Sometimes by a little and sometimes by a lot.

You use that argument to put yourself in a no-lose spot, regardless of what the poll says.

1). Poll comes out showing Democrats up by a lot. You say, "Nice, Dems up big!!"

2). Poll comes out showing Democrats up by a little. You say, "Don't worry. Dems always underpoll in Nevada. They are up big!!!"

3). Poll comes out showing Democrats losing. You'd say, "Nah. Dems always underpoll in Nevada. They are up by a little bit, maybe even up big!!"

What's the point of polling Nevada then?

Which polls have come out that show Biden losing NV?

[ajc0918]

Incumbent President at 41% = somehow "Good for Trump"

[pbrower2a]

Pollsters usually undercount Democrats in Nevada. It is easier to poll people in Nevada's strongly-R mining and ranching country than in Reno and Greater Vegas.

[ultraviolet]

And now — “Democrats are underpolled!!!!”

Yes, that statement is true, Redtroll.

How Nevada continues to be even remotely competitive is beyond me.  

NV isn't competitive. A 5 point margin is fairly normal for Nevada. Additionally, polls underestimate Democrats in NV often.

In every competitive election I've followed, Democrats overperform their polling in Nevada. Sometimes by a little and sometimes by a lot.

You use that argument to put yourself in a no-lose spot, regardless of what the poll says.

1). Poll comes out showing Democrats up by a lot. You say, "Nice, Dems up big!!"

2). Poll comes out showing Democrats up by a little. You say, "Don't worry. Dems always underpoll in Nevada. They are up big!!!"

3). Poll comes out showing Democrats losing. You'd say, "Nah. Dems always underpoll in Nevada. They are up by a little bit, maybe even up big!!"

What's the point of polling Nevada then?

Which polls have come out that show Biden losing NV?

Not even Rasmussen could find that

[It’s so Joever]

And now — “Democrats are underpolled!!!!”

Yes, that statement is true, Redtroll.

How Nevada continues to be even remotely competitive is beyond me.  

NV isn't competitive. A 5 point margin is fairly normal for Nevada. Additionally, polls underestimate Democrats in NV often.

In every competitive election I've followed, Democrats overperform their polling in Nevada. Sometimes by a little and sometimes by a lot.

You use that argument to put yourself in a no-lose spot, regardless of what the poll says.

1). Poll comes out showing Democrats up by a lot. You say, "Nice, Dems up big!!"

2). Poll comes out showing Democrats up by a little. You say, "Don't worry. Dems always underpoll in Nevada. They are up big!!!"

3). Poll comes out showing Democrats losing. You'd say, "Nah. Dems always underpoll in Nevada. They are up by a little bit, maybe even up big!!"

What's the point of polling Nevada then?

There is no point. The state is a polling nightmare.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Democrats aren't underpolled in Nevada. Just ask senator Heller and governor Laxalt.

[Sirius_]

Titanium Lean D. It may be a close margin, but where is Trump going to grow?

[wbrocks67]

Their were numerous polls that had Trump and Heller winning, so given NV's propensity for underselling Dems, the fact that Biden is at least +5 in all of the NV polls is very good for him.

[KaiserDave]

Governor Laxalt agrees Trump has a shot here.

[Xing]

If the best Trump can do in Nevada polls is to trail by mid-single digits, I do think Biden might win it by double digits. My guess is still a win of 8-9 points, but either way, I'm ready to call it Safe D. Even if things improve for Trump, he's not winning Nevada.

Governor Laxalt agrees Trump has a shot here.

LOL, at least Governor Laxalt was actually slightly ahead in the polling average here. Trump is polling worse here than President Romney, and almost as badly as President McCain.

[jdk]

So either:
1. The pollsters fixed whatever issues they had in Nevada resulted in Democrats constantly being heavily underpolled
2. Biden is heading for a double digit landslide win

Either way, safe D

[KaiserDave]

If the best Trump can do in Nevada polls is to trail by mid-single digits, I do think Biden might win it by double digits. My guess is still a win of 8-9 points, but either way, I'm ready to call it Safe D. Even if things improve for Trump, he's not winning Nevada.

Governor Laxalt agrees Trump has a shot here.

LOL, at least Governor Laxalt was actually slightly ahead in the polling average here. Trump is polling worse here than President Romney, and almost as badly as President McCain.

Exactly lol. If Trump was at +2 he'd still be screwed. It's Biden +5? Yeah Trump has no chance here.