TX (PPP): Tied

[Interlocutor]

Must every PPP poll thread devolve into whether or not it's a "Dem internal"? Christ

Anyways. These TX polls & respective threads are becoming broken records at this point (And in turn myself).

There's nothing more to say about them until November 3 that hasn't been said or iterated in the previous thousand polls showing TX either a dead heat or within the margin of error.

[Holmes]

Must every PPP poll thread devolve into whether or not it's a "Dem internal"? Christ

This but to be fair to this poll, it was commissioned by the Texas Democratic Party.

[Former President tack50]

Texas has straddled 400 electoral votes for every Democratic nominee for President since 1992, and nothing really changes that. It could easily be the narrowest win for either Trump or Biden, but it would still straddle 400 electoral votes 

Actually, I can very easily see an scenario where Texas no longer is the state that puts the Democratic candidate over 400 EVs:



In this scenario Ohio would actually be the new state to be the 400 EVs line for Democrats (Iowa could go Dem or Republican but would not put the Dem at 400 EVs)

[President Johnson]

I think Joe Biden has an about 40% chance to win Texas. People continue to point out polling usually underestimates Democrats in Texas. That's true with regard to previous cycle, but can't we expect pollsters improve their methods/weighing so that this might not be the case this time? I mean, they for sure learned in Rust Belt States not to underestimate Republicans. Or is Texas just that hard to poll?

[Interlocutor]

This is absolutely beautiful. It doesn’t really matter if Biden wins Texas - every minute and dollar Republicans spend defending it is a minute and dollar that isn’t being spent in the Midwest or the Southeast.

I keep seeing this take on regards to Texas and I still haven't seen much evidence that Trump or the GOP are defending here. They seem to be taking the possibility of Georgia flipping much more seriously than Texas

[MidwestPollster]

Can Biden win Texas without winning Florida?

[Pericles]

Sadly PPP did not poll Texas Senate in 2018 at the end, so we don't know how accurate it may have been. Its September polls had Cruz up by 3 points, which was slightly less than the average. Applying that, PPP may have overestimated Cruz's margin by 2 points, but this is a stretch. PPP also did not poll Texas close to the 2016 election, so this is unhelpful.

[tagimaucia]

I think Joe Biden has an about 40% chance to win Texas. People continue to point out polling usually underestimates Democrats in Texas. That's true with regard to previous cycle, but can't we expect pollsters improve their methods/weighing so that this might not be the case this time? I mean, they for sure learned in Rust Belt States not to underestimate Republicans. Or is Texas just that hard to poll?

I think Texas is just very unpredictable because it typically has had one of the lowest turnout rates in the country for a long time.   But there's good reason to assume that probably won't be the case this fall and how do you figure out how to model the turnout without a real world precedent? I wouldn't be surprised to see a polling error in either direction (though I do think one which underrates Dems is probably somewhat more likely due to issues we've seen around polling Hispanics in the southwest generally).

[Ferguson97]

Can Biden win Texas without winning Florida?

Certainly, if he sees a drop with Cubans and gain with other Latinos

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Here's the survey:

https://www.texasdemocrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/TexasResults-2.pdf

Not sure 4%

Sadly no Senate or Railroad Commission numbers.

[VAR]

Trump approval: 47/48 (-1, was 47/51)

[Interlocutor]

Undecideds seem to be comprised of non-whites, non-republicans & folks who either didn't vote in 2016 or voted 3rd party

[here2view]

If the polling average is Trump +2.5 or less on election day, Biden will win.

No.

Good rebuttal

[Move Forward]

Texas and taxes have the same letters

Now say “Texas and Taxes” 5 times fast

[kireev]

Here's the survey:

https://www.texasdemocrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/TexasResults-2.pdf

Not sure 4%

Sadly no Senate or Railroad Commission numbers.

Party ID, voting history, age, race - everything looks about right. Trump just very poorly among whites and that's why it's a tie.

[Hammy]

Polling error in Texas in 2018 was only 1 point so well within the margin of error, so more evidence Texas is pure tossup.

[BaldEagle1991]

Keep in mind in some areas especially in rural Texas, there’s a stigma to vote for the left leaning candidate. Which is why Dems are underpolled in Texas.

[SevenEleven]

I've had TX and GA going for Biden for months now. I'd really like to see more polls of OH and IA to see if we can get over 400.

[Crumpets]

Keep in mind in some areas especially in rural Texas, there’s a stigma to vote for the left leaning candidate. Which is why Dems are underpolled in Texas.

Trafalgar needs to update their social desirability index for Texas stat.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

HEGAR maybe too liberal to beat Cornyn, but Biden can win TX

[ExSky]

About in line with my expectation of Texas being Biden +2 to Trump +6-7 (though I'm still pretty entrenched in the belief that Trump will hold onto the state). 

I know most of the attention is elsewhere but I’m freakin glued on to our state. I’m dying to see the final outcome

[GeorgiaModerate]

About in line with my expectation of Texas being Biden +2 to Trump +6-7 (though I'm still pretty entrenched in the belief that Trump will hold onto the state). 

I know most of the attention is elsewhere but I’m freakin glued on to our state. I’m dying to see the final outcome

It's probably the state I'm most interested in seeing the final outcome.

[Interlocutor]

About in line with my expectation of Texas being Biden +2 to Trump +6-7 (though I'm still pretty entrenched in the belief that Trump will hold onto the state).  

I know most of the attention is elsewhere but I’m freakin glued on to our state. I’m dying to see the final outcome

It's the state I'll be following most on Election night (Along with Florida & Georgia).

I'm way more interested in the legislative races & county results in Texas than I am in California. So many scenarios that can occur and I think there'll be some results here that no one will be expecting