TX (PPP): Tied

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/EngelsAngle/status/1310534726579560448

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

About in line with my expectation of Texas being Biden +2 to Trump +6-7 (though I'm still pretty entrenched in the belief that Trump will hold onto the state). 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If this is the case, the SCOTUS appointment is energizing D's, just like Kavanaugh energized D's to take over the House. Cornyn is in deep trouble and HEGAR will be the next Senator from TX

[Ferguson97]

Democrats are underpolled in Texas, so Biden can definitely pull this off.

Trump is in an indisputably awful position right now.

[Skye]

Dem internal, so probably should specify that.

Anyways, TX is competitive, news at 11.

About in line with my expectation of Texas being Biden +2 to Trump +6-7 (though I'm still pretty entrenched in the belief that Trump will hold onto the state). 

Yeah, I think he'll narrowly hold onto it like Cruz.

[wbrocks67]

Dem internal, so probably should specify that.

Anyways, TX is competitive, news at 11.

About in line with my expectation of Texas being Biden +2 to Trump +6-7 (though I'm still pretty entrenched in the belief that Trump will hold onto the state). 

Yeah, I think he'll narrowly hold onto it like Cruz.

PPP is a reputable pollster either way; doesn't matter if it's a Dem internal or not. They don't change any of their methods for internals or otherwise.

[Person Man]

Some partisan pollsters are good. I can see Texas going to a recount if Democrats turn out.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Dem internal, so probably should specify that.

Anyways, TX is competitive, news at 11.

About in line with my expectation of Texas being Biden +2 to Trump +6-7 (though I'm still pretty entrenched in the belief that Trump will hold onto the state). 

Yeah, I think he'll narrowly hold onto it like Cruz.

PPP is a reputable pollster either way; doesn't matter if it's a Dem internal or not. They don't change any of their methods for internals or otherwise.

PPP is reputable for its public polls, but one should expect even its internals to be a little bit skewed. They're not going to change their methodology, but Texas Democrats potentially having a control over the release schedule of their own internals means that (like all private outfits) they're likely to release the most favourable distribution of numbers they have available.

[BlueSwan]

Dem internal, so probably should specify that.

Anyways, TX is competitive, news at 11.

About in line with my expectation of Texas being Biden +2 to Trump +6-7 (though I'm still pretty entrenched in the belief that Trump will hold onto the state). 

Yeah, I think he'll narrowly hold onto it like Cruz.

PPP is a reputable pollster either way; doesn't matter if it's a Dem internal or not. They don't change any of their methods for internals or otherwise.

PPP is reputable for its public polls, but one should expect even its internals to be a little bit skewed. They're not going to change their methodology, but Texas Democrats potentially having a control over the release schedule of their own internals means that (like all private outfits) they're likely to release the most favourable distribution of numbers they have available.

EXACTLY!

The problem with internals isn't necessarily that they are biased, but that we only get to see the results which the campaigns like and not the results which they don't like.

[Rand]

Texas and taxes have the same letters

[pbrower2a]

Texas has straddled 400 electoral votes for every Democratic nominee for President since 1992, and nothing really changes that. It could easily be the narrowest win for either Trump or Biden, but it would still straddle 400 electoral votes 

[pantsaregood]

Good for Trump?

[Buzz]

PPP + Internal = Beyond bias

[Sir Mohamed]

Still cautious to think this will flip in the end, but I'm getting some Rust Belt '16 vibes, where nobody thought it could happen until it actually happened.

[Horus]

Almost certainly 2-3 points D friendly, but even so that means 2018 numbers aka not great for the incumbent.

[Sir Mohamed]

PPP + Internal = Beyond bias

PPP has a better trackrecord than Trashfalgar and other GOP pollsters. But more importantly, you're ignoring the fact all polls from TX show a a very tight race for months. That just can't be dismissed. I still think will narrowly keep TX, but it could flip. They should be pretty nervous in Trump HQ over the Lone Star State.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are in a Trump Recession and we have 8 percent unemployment, the same as it was in 2008, we aren't at 4 percent unemployment when where we were in 2016, and the voters have anxiety over 200K deaths and reopening.

Pence cancelled all the Covid Press Briefings over phases of reopening and we still are in partial shutdown. Trump still doesn't wear mask and no  natl mask mandate

[Landslide Lyndon]

I can't believe that we are in 2020 and we are reading the same BS criticism about PPP that we were reading back in 2012.

[Sir Mohamed]

We are in a Trump Recession and we have 8 percent unemployment, the same as it was in 2008, we aren't at 4 percent unemployment when where we were in 2016, and the voters have anxiety over 200K deaths and reopening.

Pence cancelled all the Covid Press Briefings over phases of reopening and we still are in partial shutdown. Trump still doesn't wear mask and no  natl mask mandate

I dunno why you're saying the low unemployment in 2016 benefited Trump. If anything, it would have benefited HRC since Obama was the incumbent prez and not Trump.

[Gass3268]

If the polling average is Trump +2.5 or less on election day, Biden will win.

[Mr. Illini]

This is absolutely beautiful. It doesn’t really matter if Biden wins Texas - every minute and dollar Republicans spend defending it is a minute and dollar that isn’t being spent in the Midwest or the Southeast.

It really does feel like the wheels are coming off for the Trump campaign. Here’s hoping Biden and the DNC don’t screw it up (well within the realm of possibility). There’s plenty of time left.

[wbrocks67]

PPP has polled this race multiple time this cycle. For clients and just for public. They've found generally the same result every single time. Trump +2 to Biden +2.

Also, PPP nailed the TX-SEN final # in 2018.

[VAR]

If the polling average is Trump +2.5 or less on election day, Biden will win.

No.

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

Hell polls in Texas typically underestimate Dem vote shares so the internal polls might be the most accurate picture we have

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Hell polls in Texas typically underestimate Dem vote shares so the internal polls might be the most accurate picture we have

Slight underestimation by a point or two might be only about as inaccurate as PPP-produced internals, but your average GBAO/GSG poll is probably going to be off by more than the average polling error, to say nothing of the no-name internal pollsters like "Lincoln Park Strategies."