Armenia—Azerbaijan Conflict Aftermath: Discord in Armenia

[Meclazine for Israel]

We need a map to see what is going on.

[jaymichaud]

You ‘Stand With Armenia’ guys do know that Artsakh is Azerbaijani according to International Law, right? None of you would ever have the same attitude towards Northern Cyprus.

[CumbrianLefty]

Is there any concern that Armenia might ethnically cleanse Azeris if it gains the upper hand or is Azerbaijan the only combatant with genocidal intent?

There aren't really any Azeris left in areas the Armenians claim (that genocide happened in the 90s). I don't think Armenia is interested in pushing further into Azerbaijan than they already controlled pre-conflict, except possibly Nakhchivan.

The fact it has a border (even if only a very small one) with Turkey may prove a deterrent there.

[Hnv1]

You ‘Stand With Armenia’ guys do know that Artsakh is Azerbaijani according to International Law, right? None of you would ever have the same attitude towards Northern Cyprus.

Public International Law isn’t really law nor is it inherently just.

[GlobeSoc]

You ‘Stand With Armenia’ guys do know that Artsakh is Azerbaijani according to International Law, right? None of you would ever have the same attitude towards Northern Cyprus.

would rather not have armenian genocide 2

[palandio]

We need a map to see what is going on.

You mean something like liveUAmap?

[Wikipedia delenda est]

https://www.reuters.com/article/armenia-azerbaijan-int/armenia-accuses-turkish-fighter-jet-of-downing-warplane-ankara-denies-it-idUSKBN26K0KD

According to Armenia, the Turks have shot down one of their warplanes. Ankara denies the accusation.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/turkey-sends-sayf-balud-isis-warlord-to-azerbaijan-to-face-off-against-putins-armenian-allies

Report that Turkey is sending former ISIS fighters to fight in Nagornoh-Karabakh.

[Sirius_]

You ‘Stand With Armenia’ guys do know that Artsakh is Azerbaijani according to International Law, right? None of you would ever have the same attitude towards Northern Cyprus.

Ah yes, because all attempted breakaway states should be viewed the same and definitely don't have differing levels of legitimacy depending on the circumstances of their independence movements.

[Tintrlvr]

Is there any concern that Armenia might ethnically cleanse Azeris if it gains the upper hand or is Azerbaijan the only combatant with genocidal intent?

There aren't really any Azeris left in areas the Armenians claim (that genocide happened in the 90s). I don't think Armenia is interested in pushing further into Azerbaijan than they already controlled pre-conflict, except possibly Nakhchivan.

The fact it has a border (even if only a very small one) with Turkey may prove a deterrent there.

I mean, I agree Turkey wouldn't let Armenia take over Nakhchivan (although Nakhchivan barely has a border with Turkey, just a single bridge; if Turkey wanted to stop an Armenian invasion of Nakhchivan, they'd have to invade Armenia proper). It's just the only pre-war Azerbaijan-controlled territory Armenia would even want.

[Saruku]

You ‘Stand With Armenia’ guys do know that Artsakh is Azerbaijani according to International Law, right? None of you would ever have the same attitude towards Northern Cyprus.

Are you sure you want to talk about international law?

[jaymichaud]

You ‘Stand With Armenia’ guys do know that Artsakh is Azerbaijani according to International Law, right? None of you would ever have the same attitude towards Northern Cyprus.

Ah yes, because all attempted breakaway states should be viewed the same and definitely don't have differing levels of legitimacy depending on the circumstances of their independence movements.

They tick the same boxes, boo radley.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_occupations

You ‘Stand With Armenia’ guys do know that Artsakh is Azerbaijani according to International Law, right? None of you would ever have the same attitude towards Northern Cyprus.

Are you sure you want to talk about international law?

Go on, then.

[urutzizu]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/turkey-sends-sayf-balud-isis-warlord-to-azerbaijan-to-face-off-against-putins-armenian-allies

Report that Turkey is sending former ISIS fighters to fight in Nagornoh-Karabakh.

20 something year old sunnis who joined ISIS to fight shias in Syria, end up being sent to the Caucasus to defend ultrasecular shia turks against armenian christians because Erdogan said so.

We truly live in the best timeline.

[Lord Halifax]

You ‘Stand With Armenia’ guys do know that Artsakh is Azerbaijani according to International Law, right? None of you would ever have the same attitude towards Northern Cyprus.

Ah yes, because all attempted breakaway states should be viewed the same and definitely don't have differing levels of legitimacy depending on the circumstances of their independence movements.

They tick the same boxes, boo radley.

Cyprus had 80% Greeks and 18% Turks before the invasion (and 2% Armenians), Nagorno-Karabakh had a 75% Armenian majority when the Soviet Union was dissolved. If the principle of national self-determination had been followed Nagorno-Karabakh would have merged with Armenia and Cyprus with Greece.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://www.reuters.com/article/armenia-azerbaijan-int/armenia-accuses-turkish-fighter-jet-of-downing-warplane-ankara-denies-it-idUSKBN26K0KD

According to Armenia, the Turks have shot down one of their warplanes. Ankara denies the accusation.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/turkey-sends-sayf-balud-isis-warlord-to-azerbaijan-to-face-off-against-putins-armenian-allies

Report that Turkey is sending former ISIS fighters to fight in Nagornoh-Karabakh.

Yeah, the not ISIS side is clearly the less bad side regardless of whether they have Putin's support.

[CumbrianLefty]

You ‘Stand With Armenia’ guys do know that Artsakh is Azerbaijani according to International Law, right? None of you would ever have the same attitude towards Northern Cyprus.

Ah yes, because all attempted breakaway states should be viewed the same and definitely don't have differing levels of legitimacy depending on the circumstances of their independence movements.

They tick the same boxes, boo radley.

Cyprus had 80% Greeks and 18% Turks before the invasion (and 2% Armenians), Nagorno-Karabakh had a 75% Armenian majority when the Soviet Union was dissolved. If the principle of national self-determination had been followed Nagorno-Karabakh would have merged with Armenia and Cyprus with Greece.

Did all Greek Cypriots want that?

[Wikipedia delenda est]

You ‘Stand With Armenia’ guys do know that Artsakh is Azerbaijani according to International Law, right? None of you would ever have the same attitude towards Northern Cyprus.

Ah yes, because all attempted breakaway states should be viewed the same and definitely don't have differing levels of legitimacy depending on the circumstances of their independence movements.

They tick the same boxes, boo radley.

Cyprus had 80% Greeks and 18% Turks before the invasion (and 2% Armenians), Nagorno-Karabakh had a 75% Armenian majority when the Soviet Union was dissolved. If the principle of national self-determination had been followed Nagorno-Karabakh would have merged with Armenia and Cyprus with Greece.

Did all Greek Cypriots want that?

No. Support for enosis was largely limited to Greek nationalists on the political right, and they sought to implement it through coup d'etat. The subsequent Turkish invasion overthrew the coup government and toppled the Greek fascist junta. In my view, the first phase of the invasion was therefore justified, but the second wave was not. Once the coupists had been defeated, Turkey should've withdrawn instead of occupying the northern half of the island. Since then however, it has largely been the Greek Cypriots who have blocked reunification, as they rejected the Annan Plan to reunify the island in 2004.

[Agonized-Statism]

It's a little worrying that most Americans don't even know a WWIII flashpoint is happening.

[CumbrianLefty]

It's a little worrying that most Americans don't even know a WWIII flashpoint is happening.

I think this is maybe a tad alarmist, no?

[Agonized-Statism]

It's a little worrying that most Americans don't even know a WWIII flashpoint is happening.

I think this is maybe a tad alarmist, no?

Did I say WWIII will happen? There's a 1% chance, but it's a possible catalyst nevertheless.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

We need a map to see what is going on.

You mean something like liveUAmap?

Wonderful resource.

Currently it's saying Azerbaijan is admitting that it's turned over the air operation to the Turkish Air Force. I guess we'll see how true that is.

[Lord Halifax]

You ‘Stand With Armenia’ guys do know that Artsakh is Azerbaijani according to International Law, right? None of you would ever have the same attitude towards Northern Cyprus.

Ah yes, because all attempted breakaway states should be viewed the same and definitely don't have differing levels of legitimacy depending on the circumstances of their independence movements.

They tick the same boxes, boo radley.

Cyprus had 80% Greeks and 18% Turks before the invasion (and 2% Armenians), Nagorno-Karabakh had a 75% Armenian majority when the Soviet Union was dissolved. If the principle of national self-determination had been followed Nagorno-Karabakh would have merged with Armenia and Cyprus with Greece.

Did all Greek Cypriots want that?

No, but I don't think there is much doubt a majority of the island's population did. The Greek Orthodox church strongly supported it and held sway over much of the population in the post-war era.

It's a shame the British colonial administration refused to hold a unification referendum in 1949 when Greece was a democracy and Turkey comparatively weaker.

[dead0man]

I don't think this Russian/Turkey proxy war will not go the way Erdogan wants.

[Lord Halifax]

I don't think this Russian/Turkey proxy war will not go the way Erdogan wants.

The problem for Armenia is that they can't count on unconditional and full-hearted Russian support. Russia is courting Erdogan and they sell weapons to both sides (although slightly better ones to Armenia), they prefer the status quo but it's unclear how many resources and how much political capital Russia would actually be prepared to spend to prop up Armenia.

[Hnv1]

Any reliable run down on what’s happening on the ground?

[BigSerg]

War crime

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1312748753405779968?s=19