which scenario would have caused reform

[freepcrusher]

Scenario 1:
Hugo Black, Earl Warren, John Harlan die while Abe Fortas and Bill Douglas resign during the Ford/Nixon years. Mansfield leaves all five seats empty. Carter fills all five seats

Potter Stewart retires in the Summer of 1981 leaving Reagan with one seat to fill by Sandra Day O'Connor but otherwise - no vacancies until 90-91 when Marshall and Brennan leave. Mitchell too leaves those seats vacant

Bill Clinton is inaugurated in 1993 and fills the Marshall, Brennan vacancies while Byron White retires.

My guess is that some of the Carter nominees want to leave under the Clinton years but the GOP senate blocks it. It's also possible some of the Carter nominees die in the 01-06 period

It gets fuzzy from there on out

Scenario 2
By 1977 Nixon and Ford have five combined nominees except instead of Blackmun and Stevens you have Haynesworth and Howard Baker.

In 1990, Bush selects Edith Jones to replace Brennan and the senate confirms her. Haynesworth probably retires in 1989 and is replaced by Ralph Winter or someone like that.

You probably have a 5-4 or 6-3 case reversing Roe in 1992.

Clinton gets a vacancy with White but that's it

In 2003, Howard Baker retires and is replaced by Mike Luttig.

8-1 GOP court in 2009

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obviously option 1.

[Fuzzy Bear]

During the Carter years there were a significant number of Democratic Senators that would oppose a liberal nominee and would have sustained a filibuster. 

Allen and Sparkman of AL
Eastland and Stennis of MS
H. Byrd of VA


There are others that would have been questionable;

Long and Johnston of LA
Boren of OK
McClellan of AR
Morgan of NC
Hollings of SC

It was Southern Democrats that upheld the filibuster that killed the Fortas and Thornberry nominations even as Democrats had a comfortable numeric majority in the Senate in 1968 and could count on a few liberal Republicans for support.

[freepcrusher]

During the Carter years there were a significant number of Democratic Senators that would oppose a liberal nominee and would have sustained a filibuster. 

Allen and Sparkman of AL
Eastland and Stennis of MS
H. Byrd of VA


There are others that would have been questionable;

Long and Johnston of LA
Boren of OK
McClellan of AR
Morgan of NC
Hollings of SC

It was Southern Democrats that upheld the filibuster that killed the Fortas and Thornberry nominations even as Democrats had a comfortable numeric majority in the Senate in 1968 and could count on a few liberal Republicans for support.

they were still able to get in guys like Reinhart and Mivka in. So if Carters five nominees ran the gamut (i.e. James P Coleman on one hand but also a Bazelon -esque guy on the other) - it would be no big deal.

BTW, I remember reading somewhere that in her dc circuit days - Ginsburg (who was a carter appointee) was most similar in ideology to Ken Starr. Do circuit court decisions mean jack? Or did she not shift left until elevation?

[freepcrusher]

no interest in this issue? All three remaining dems on the court were seats that were "gifted" by republican appointees. What if more conservative jurists were confirmed in 1970, 1975 and 1990? Would we be on the verge of a 9-0 court? Would Obama or Clinton have finally said "enough with this bullsh-t" and expanded the court?

Likewise in the first scenario (which is less likely) when would the republicans have gone for the jugular? Maybe during Bush in 03 (first trifecta since the 50s) but with the gang of 14 maybe not. Otoh, if it was in living memory of Nixon, Ford, Bush Sr getting there nominees blocked, would they have finally said "enough"? Or would that not come until the 115th congress?

[Mr.Phips]

no interest in this issue? All three remaining dems on the court were seats that were "gifted" by republican appointees. What if more conservative jurists were confirmed in 1970, 1975 and 1990? Would we be on the verge of a 9-0 court? Would Obama or Clinton have finally said "enough with this bullsh-t" and expanded the court?

Likewise in the first scenario (which is less likely) when would the republicans have gone for the jugular? Maybe during Bush in 03 (first trifecta since the 50s) but with the gang of 14 maybe not. Otoh, if it was in living memory of Nixon, Ford, Bush Sr getting there nominees blocked, would they have finally said "enough"? Or would that not come until the 115th congress?

Neither Obama or Clinton would have expanded the court.  Clinton couldn’t even get Robert Byrd to agree to use reconciliation to pass healthcare reform.

Im not even sure Trump would have been able to do this in 2017. 

[freepcrusher]

no interest in this issue? All three remaining dems on the court were seats that were "gifted" by republican appointees. What if more conservative jurists were confirmed in 1970, 1975 and 1990? Would we be on the verge of a 9-0 court? Would Obama or Clinton have finally said "enough with this bullsh-t" and expanded the court?

Likewise in the first scenario (which is less likely) when would the republicans have gone for the jugular? Maybe during Bush in 03 (first trifecta since the 50s) but with the gang of 14 maybe not. Otoh, if it was in living memory of Nixon, Ford, Bush Sr getting there nominees blocked, would they have finally said "enough"? Or would that not come until the 115th congress?

Neither Obama or Clinton would have expanded the court.  Clinton couldn’t even get Robert Byrd to agree to use reconciliation to pass healthcare reform.

Im not even sure Trump would have been able to do this in 2017. 

if Obama had an 8-1 GOP appointed court in 2009-2010 with the two most liberal being Kennedy and Roberts - you don't think he would be worried about getting the ACA struck down?

Likewise if Casey had overturned Roe, you don't think Clinton would have gotten ticked off or tried to blackmail Rehnquist?

[Mr.Phips]

no interest in this issue? All three remaining dems on the court were seats that were "gifted" by republican appointees. What if more conservative jurists were confirmed in 1970, 1975 and 1990? Would we be on the verge of a 9-0 court? Would Obama or Clinton have finally said "enough with this bullsh-t" and expanded the court?

Likewise in the first scenario (which is less likely) when would the republicans have gone for the jugular? Maybe during Bush in 03 (first trifecta since the 50s) but with the gang of 14 maybe not. Otoh, if it was in living memory of Nixon, Ford, Bush Sr getting there nominees blocked, would they have finally said "enough"? Or would that not come until the 115th congress?

Neither Obama or Clinton would have expanded the court.  Clinton couldn’t even get Robert Byrd to agree to use reconciliation to pass healthcare reform.

Im not even sure Trump would have been able to do this in 2017. 

if Obama had an 8-1 GOP appointed court in 2009-2010 with the two most liberal being Kennedy and Roberts - you don't think he would be worried about getting the ACA struck down?

Likewise if Casey had overturned Roe, you don't think Clinton would have gotten ticked off or tried to blackmail Rehnquist?

No I don’t.  When did Clinton ever really play this way with Republicans?  If he did, Republicans probably wouldn’t have won the House in 1994 (or held it in 1996 when he was winning in a landslide).