PA - TIPP/The Federalist: Biden +5%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.scribd.com/document/477721916/The-Federalist-TIPP-Pennsylvania-Poll-Sept-24-26-2020

September 24-26
774 likely voters
MoE: a credibility of 3.6% seemingly for both this sample and the larger registered voters sample

Biden 50%
Trump 45%
Other 1%
Prefer not to answer 0% (but some voters)
Not sure 4%

[wbrocks67]

The Federalist is doing polls now? And they have Biden at +5? This is like Trafalgar showing Biden +5

[libertpaulian]

The Federalist as in...Who Funds The Federalist?

[ON Progressive]

Quite good given these guys had Biden +6 nationally.

[Bootes Void]

CNN put Pennsylvania in "tossup". What 🤡

[Landslide Lyndon]

This must be the first TIPP state poll I have ever seen.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

nice

[Alben Barkley]

ANOTHER Biden at 50 in PA.

[Roll Roons]

Now that the Pennsylvania bedwetting is likely to end, what'll the next state be?

[DaleCooper]

Now that the Pennsylvania bedwetting is likely to end, what'll the next state be?

I'm kind of surprised that it's never been New Hampshire. I don't think Trump has any real shot there either, but of all the Clinton states, that one seemed like the most vulnerable, and definitely more so than MN or NV.

[Paul Biya isn’t going far enough]

Now that the Pennsylvania bedwetting is likely to end, what'll the next state be?

My money is on Nevada.
Just a couple of bad polls and everyone will freak.

[Alben Barkley]

Now that the Pennsylvania bedwetting is likely to end, what'll the next state be?

I'm kind of surprised that it's never been New Hampshire. I don't think Trump has any real shot there either, but of all the Clinton states, that one seemed like the most vulnerable, and definitely more so than MN or NV.

NH is worth only 4 votes though. 2016+MI+WI+PA-NH=a win. Can't afford to lose it AND Nevada though. I would say maybe NV is due for a panic, but that Fox +11 poll might stop that. Plus the whole "Biden is struggling with Latinos!" narrative seems to be dying down a bit.

Also, most people seem to agree that northern New England has snapped hard away from Trump. The evidence we do have certainly suggests that. People are even starting to concede that Biden could win ME-02, which was not the case a while back when everyone considered it safe Trump.

[Roll Roons]

Now that the Pennsylvania bedwetting is likely to end, what'll the next state be?

I'm kind of surprised that it's never been New Hampshire. I don't think Trump has any real shot there either, but of all the Clinton states, that one seemed like the most vulnerable, and definitely more so than MN or NV.

You might be onto something. We've gotten barely any polling there despite how close it was at all levels (president, Senate and governor) in 2016. I would not be surprised if people freak out about a weird poll that comes out this week.

[kireev]

46% Trump, 42% Clinton 2016 sample. Only 7% black.  A bit too old: only 33%  younger than 45 (40% in 2016). But almost 50% are college grads. Overall, a slightly GOP-friendly sample.

[Brittain33]

Now that the Pennsylvania bedwetting is likely to end, what'll the next state be?

I'm kind of surprised that it's never been New Hampshire. I don't think Trump has any real shot there either, but of all the Clinton states, that one seemed like the most vulnerable, and definitely more so than MN or NV.

I feel like we had 36 hours of bedwetting about NH when Trump went up there for a rally and then Biden bought some advertising time there or something. About 3 weeks ago?

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

46% Trump, 42% Clinton 2016 sample. Only 7% black.  A bit too old: only 33%  younger than 45 (40% in 2016). But almost 50% are college grads. Overall, a slightly GOP-friendly sample.

And still Biden is up 5

[pbrower2a]

CNN put Pennsylvania in "tossup". What 🤡

Response to one TRAshy FALsehood-laden GARbage poll that had Trump down only 2 there?

A 5% margin doesn't sound so overwhelming now... but time is of the essence in the campaign.

Time to election  |1 point|5 points||10 points|20 points|
one day............. |...64%|....95%|.....99.7%|.99.999%|
one week........... |...60%|....89%|.......98%|...99.97%|
one month......... |...57%|....81%|.......95%|.....99.7%|
three months..... |...55%|....72%|.......87%|........98%|
six months..........|...53%|....66%|.......79%|.......93%|
one year.............|....52%|...59%|.......67%|.......81%|

Five points one month ahead is not definitive, but it is bad for the lagger who must turn a 5% deficit into a tie or better for him. Even with a not-so-impressive 5-point lead roughly one month away from the election, Joe Biden has about an 80% chance of winning Pennsylvania. Trump can kiss Michigan and Wisconsin bye-bye.

[Hammy]

Reminder, this is one of the pollsters that consistently had Trump leading nationally the entire election using, unless I'm mis-remembering, similar methodology to Trafalgar--still having Biden at 50%.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

PA is gonna go D and so will WI

[ProudModerate2]

Now that the Pennsylvania bedwetting is likely to end, what'll the next state be?

My money is on Nevada.
Just a couple of bad polls and everyone will freak.

I believe we already went through a cycle of "bedwetting" over Nevada.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Probably polls are overestimating Biden, it's gonna be a 291/47 EC map, polls showing significant Biden leads of 10 are biased. If Biden is only leading in PA by 5, not 17, that Wolf won by