NBC/Marist: Biden +8 in MI, Biden +10 in WIS

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not exactly what I was hoping to see this morning.  Great polling this morning for Joe Biden.

Trump needed a full economic rebound in order to beat someone like Biden, he isn't Hillary, whom isn't in the same class of candidates like Biden is. The Rs love to use the 2016 analogy, but without Gary Johnson and if Hillary ran in 2008, Rs wouldn't have beaten her either

[DaleCooper]

Too good to be true.

I only believe it when I see it.

I understand your skepticism and I'm hesitant to be optimistic too, but these numbers are no longer outliers. We've had an awful lot of polls that put Biden well ahead of Trump in Wisconsin, even many by double digits or close.

[ProudModerate2]

The WI numbers are incredible.
I think Joe should shift and concentrate more on PA now.

[Gass3268]

MI:
Wayne County (Detroit) - Biden 64-31 (+33)
Southeast - Biden 66-30 (+36)
Eastern Central - Trump 54-43 (+11)
Southwest - Biden 48-46 (+2)
North Central/Upper Peninsula - Trump 64-33 (+31)

Blacks - Biden 90-7 (+83)
White Catholics - Biden 48-47 (+1)

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_MI-Likely-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_202009251227.pdf#page=3

WI:
Milwaukee County - Biden 77-22 (+55)
Chiwaukee Suburbs - Trump 57-40 (+17)
Dane County - Biden 85-13 (+72)
Fox River Valley/Northern Lakeshore - Trump 53-42 (+11)
Southwest - Biden 52-44 (+8)
North - Trump 53-44 (+9)

White Catholics - Trump 51/47 (+4)

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_WI-Likely-Voters-NOS-and-Tables_202009251238.pdf#page=3

I wish I knew what counties are in each region...

[Eraserhead]

Wisconsin might be gone for Trump.

[republican1993]

LOL MIW suburbs only + 17 in this poll when they were like +30 in 2016 and a lot of reps were hesistent of trump - waukesha won't be 55-40

[pbrower2a]

MI:
Wayne County (Detroit) - Biden 64-31 (+33)
Southeast - Biden 66-30 (+36)
Eastern Central - Trump 54-43 (+11)
Southwest - Biden 48-46 (+2)
North Central/Upper Peninsula - Trump 64-33 (+31)

Blacks - Biden 90-7 (+83)
White Catholics - Biden 48-47 (+1)

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_MI-Likely-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_202009251227.pdf#page=3

WI:
Milwaukee County - Biden 77-22 (+55)
Chiwaukee Suburbs - Trump 57-40 (+17)
Dane County - Biden 85-13 (+72)
Fox River Valley/Northern Lakeshore - Trump 53-42 (+11)
Southwest - Biden 52-44 (+8)
North - Trump 53-44 (+9)

White Catholics - Trump 51/47 (+4)

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_WI-Likely-Voters-NOS-and-Tables_202009251238.pdf#page=3

I wish I knew what counties are in each region...

My guesses:

uid=30797]
MI:
Wayne County (Detroit) - Biden 64-31 (+33) (Detroit, of course, and such suburbs as Livonia and River Rouge)
Southeast - Biden 66-30 (+36) (Ann Arbor)
Eastern Central - Trump 54-43 (+11) (Flint, Saginaw, Midland, Mount Pleasant, Port Huron)
Southwest - Biden 48-46 (+2) (Grand Rapids, Muskegon, Holland, Kalamazoo, Grand Rapids, St. Joseph)
North Central/Upper Peninsula - Trump 64-33 (+31) (the UP, Traverse City, Alpena, Cadillac)

I can't figure where Lansing and East Lansing would fit.

Blacks - Biden 90-7 (+83)
White Catholics - Biden 48-47 (+1)

White Catholics (in Michigan, the Irish and Germans that you would expect everywhere with larger contingents of Polish-Americans and Arab Catholics than elsewhere and smaller contingent of Italian-Americans) had been drifting R on economic issues from what one would have expected in the Great Depression. On the other hand, white Catholics are probably above average now in formal education, which hurts Trump this year.

If you are wondering about Catholics with French surnames in Michigan -- many of those are really "First Peoples", and non-white.  One largely-Catholic group, Hispanics, is growing rapidly in Michigan.  They likewise do not generally count as white, and I would expect them to be hostile to Trump. They are dirt-poor, they respect formal education for their kids -- or both.

Michigan is for Trump this year about what Indiana was for Obama in 2012... a bare win, and (for now at least)  a fluke. Michigan looks like a blowout loss for Trump.  

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_MI-Likely-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_202009251227.pdf#page=3

WI:
Milwaukee County - Biden 77-22 (+55) (Milwaukee, of course)
Chiwaukee Suburbs - Trump 57-40 (+17) (Racine, Kenosha)
Dane County - Biden 85-13 (+72) (Madison)
Fox River Valley/Northern Lakeshore - Trump 53-42 (+11) (Green Bay, Appleton, Sheboygan)
Southwest - Biden 52-44 (+8) (Mississippi River Valley in Wisconsin? Winona and Eau Claire, probably)
North - Trump 53-44 (+9) (Superior, Wausau. Rhinelander)

White Catholics - Trump 51/47 (+4)

Close to even. Dutch-Americans are largely Protestant in Michigan and more Catholic in Wisconsin. Dutch-Americans are only about as politically conservative as Cubans of the first wave of Castro-refugees and their descendants, whether Protestant or Catholic. Belgian-Americans are fairly common in Wisconsin but scarce in  Michigan. The white Catholic population in Wisconsin is otherwise much like that of Michigan.

Trump's chances of winning either state are best described as "drowning".

[HAnnA MArin County]

Glad to see Whitmer with such a good approval rating. The deplorables who've been at the Capitol with their pathetic guns to intimidate her and the state legislators don't seem to be helping their cause or their tangerine tyrant.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Let’s dispel once and for all with this fiction that Wisconsin is significantly to the right of MI/PA.

And by the way, any other candidate but Trump polling this badly this consistently would be considered dead in the water. ANY other.

No one would even consider Michigan, Wisconsin, etc. factors. It would be Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Georgia considered the true battlegrounds. The only question would be how much Biden would win by, not if he wins at all.

It’s just laughable how people are able to spin an endless onslaught of objectively terrible numbers for Trump as somehow good for him or at least not good for Biden. 2016 really warped some people’s ability to think straight, huh?

Yeah but Trump will suppress the vote through the USPS and end up winning all his 2016 states + Nevada, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Colorado, Virginia & somehow New Jersey!

Act like Biden is 10 20 points behind in the polls!

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1310335713410514950

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1310335713410514950

That would cut Biden's lead by 2 points at most. He's making big inroads with this group.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1310335713410514950

That would cut Biden's lead by 2 points at most. He's making big inroads with this group.

Wasserman clearly wants a horse race. His standing in my book went down a bit after he insisted that the Kenosha riots were going to hurt Biden.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1310335713410514950

That would cut Biden's lead by 2 points at most. He's making big inroads with this group.

Wasserman clearly wants a horse race. His standing in my book went down a bit after he insisted that the Kenosha riots were going to hurt Biden.

Yeah, it does seem like he's always trying to show how the race is actually a tossup when it clearly isn't, or posting some kind of doom scenario about ballot counting being a mess in a critical state.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1310335713410514950

That would cut Biden's lead by 2 points at most. He's making big inroads with this group.

Right? Like okay, even if it was 57% instead of 52% (not that BIG of a difference), Biden would be like +7/8 instead of +10. Wasserman acting like it's that big of a difference, like we're talking 35% to 57% or something

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1310335713410514950

That would cut Biden's lead by 2 points at most. He's making big inroads with this group.

Wasserman clearly wants a horse race. His standing in my book went down a bit after he insisted that the Kenosha riots were going to hurt Biden.

Doesn't make his point about weighing by education wrong.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1310335713410514950

That would cut Biden's lead by 2 points at most. He's making big inroads with this group.

Wasserman clearly wants a horse race. His standing in my book went down a bit after he insisted that the Kenosha riots were going to hurt Biden.

Doesn't make his point about weighing by education wrong.

The non college sample going from 57% to 52% is not going to fundamentally alter the end result here, but that's what he's trying to say for some reason. Because he wants a horse race.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1310335713410514950

That would cut Biden's lead by 2 points at most. He's making big inroads with this group.

Wasserman clearly wants a horse race. His standing in my book went down a bit after he insisted that the Kenosha riots were going to hurt Biden.

Doesn't make his point about weighing by education wrong.

I didn't say that it did; it's just annoying that, in most instances, he only brings up such qualifiers when it benefits a particular candidate and serves the narrative that he's trying to push.

[pbrower2a]

Glad to see Whitmer with such a good approval rating. The deplorables who've been at the Capitol with their pathetic guns to intimidate her and the state legislators don't seem to be helping their cause or their tangerine tyrant.

The anti-mask protests can do more to sicken, maim, and kill participants than to hurt the standing of Governor Gretchen Whitmer. She took a chance that could have backfired badly. I occasionally see signs that say "The Governor is an idiot"... usually around a huge Trump banner or sign.

The Darwin Awards will be flooded with people who did stupid things involving COVID-19. I am already thinking of a nomination for a former city councilman of a rather large city, someone who as an elected official should have taken appropriate heed instead of denying the danger and being wrong -- dead wrong. 

Michigan has gone down in the standings... among states in COVID-19 deaths.

Michigan's right wing is as nasty as that in any state. It seems to love the word deplorable... it must confuse the word with "adorable".

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump is gonna fill the vacancy regardless

1. Of course he is.

2. He and Senate Republicans are overplaying their hand, and they are going to get punished at the polls in Nov because of this

3. Republicans will gladly cede control of Washington in 2021 to get ACB on the bench in 2020, because after spending 45 years putting the pieces in place, this is their endgame.