What will the next party system look like?
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  What will the next party system look like?
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Author Topic: What will the next party system look like?  (Read 1230 times)
Agonized-Statism
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« on: September 27, 2020, 01:53:03 AM »
« edited: September 27, 2020, 04:17:30 PM by Anarcho-Statism »

Few people agree on the periodization, but my approach is:

First Party System: 1796-1824; The Federalists represent the Northern business community while the Democratic-Republicans represent farmers and planters, being the ideological successors of the centralizing and decentralizing factions present at the foundation of the country and throughout the Washington administration. The Federalists are irrelevant after 1800 due to weakness in the new Western states and are fully repudiated after the Hartford Convention.
Second Party System: 1828-1852; Andrew Jackson's Democrats are popular for expanding the voting franchise while Whigs only extend the Federalist coalition to Southern elites and the small middle class. Democrat and Southern power dominates the country and eventually the Whigs collapse over factionalism on the issue of slavery.
Third Party System: 1856-1892; Democrats are confined to the South during and after the Civil War, finally allowing the new Northern-based party to pursue industrialization and centralization. Immigrants in Northern cities join big-city Democrat machines and gradually make elections closer, typically with moderate Bourbon Democrats able to both carry the South and tap into the North.
Fourth Party System: 1896-1928; The Republicans are seen as the party of prosperity after the Panic of 1893 and shore up the North. Populists muscle out the Republican Lite Bourbon Democrats but fail to get Northern industrial workers onboard, and are thus confined largely to the South again. Progressives emerge in both parties but the Protestant moral panic benefits Republicans more.
Fifth Party System: 1932-1976; Those affected by the Great Depression shift en masse to the Democrats for their New Deal programs, including the Northern working class and minorities. The enormous New Deal Coalition survives the initial crisis as support for government expansion continues into World War II and the early Cold War, but the Northern and Southern factions are increasingly unable to cooperate on desegregation. Meanwhile, a new generation of conservatives eventually seen as more competent in foreign affairs and solution-oriented with social problems emerge and displace the old Eastern Establishment, gradually improving in the South, the suburbs, and rural areas.
Sixth Party System: 1980-202?; The realignment of the South, the suburbs, and rural areas is complete and the GOP dominates with an agenda of economic deregulation, social conservatism, and hawkishness abroad. While Democrats are only able to win with moderates capable of tapping into the South or the suburbs, urban and minority growth gradually makes elections closer. Simultaneously, widespread reaction against wealth inequality, the shattering of the "moral majority", and failed nation-building operations in the Middle East erode the Republican coalition's ideological reason for being. IMO, it ends when the Republicans' built-in Sun Belt advantage ends, so when states like Texas and Georgia become competitive. Personally, I doubt that's 2020, especially with the Biden campaign going the typical route by targeting the Northern working class and suburbanites.

What we can be sure of:

  • The current GOP coalition is at a disadvantage going forward. The Democratic coalition of minorities and white progressives is growing and threatens to disrupt the urbanizing and diversifying Republican Sun Belt in the near future. The most recent Republican victory was won by a combination of the shrinking Reagan Era coalition and more traditionally Democratic working class whites in the Rust Belt as well as lower minority turnout. However, conservatives will likely have the advantage in the Supreme Court for decades as well as the Senate if they continue winning more (small) states than the Democrats.
  • Basically all of the famous battles of the religious right have been won by progressives. Religiosity is decreasing but the remaining evangelical voters are increasingly Republican. Religious defense is increasingly absent in Republican arguments, and now "owning the libs" appears to hold the conservative voting bloc together in the absence of shared policy preferences.
  • The stagnant 21st century economy has experienced two serious recessions which have exposed the weaknesses of the Sixth Party System's neoliberal economics. The effects of these recessions have been, and will be, long-lasting and far-reaching. Themes of progressivism and right-wing populism have been apparent since the Great Recession and contributed to candidates' victories in those elections.
  • The War on Terror as an idea of unipolar Middle East nation-building has entered a less active phase as the US now looks to maintain status in a multipolar world. China is transitioning to a post-industrial economy and there is bipartisan support behind more hostile relations with the country, making a Cold War with China an inevitability in the coming years.

What will the issues, coalitions, and maps look like?
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2020, 03:22:08 AM »

Gender and education will be a more reliable indicator of political affiliation than race.

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Heebie Jeebie
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« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2020, 10:59:28 AM »

1.  There have been 10 party systems, not 6.

2.  Democrats will represent the prosperous parts of the country, Republicans the failing parts.  Wherever people are educated and productive, that'll be the blue vote.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: September 27, 2020, 11:26:42 AM »

Gender and education will be a more reliable indicator of political affiliation than race.



Hmmm, could it get to the point where in most hetero married couples the husband and wife have opposite views?
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #4 on: September 27, 2020, 11:28:53 AM »
« Edited: September 27, 2020, 01:08:15 PM by Anarcho-Statism »

1.  There have been 10 party systems, not 6.

No. This thread follows the conventional six party systems model as outlined in The Princeton Encyclopedia of American Political History (or Wikipedia but that tends to get a visceral reaction).

2.  Democrats will represent the prosperous parts of the country, Republicans the failing parts.  Wherever people are educated and productive, that'll be the blue vote.

Understand that you're actually proposing a Republican-dominated system. When you represent a small moneyed elite against the downtrodden- which, by the way, is going to be a lot more people in the future, *ahem* especially minorities- you're the guys who were going up against the Democratic-Republicans in the early 1800s and the New Deal Coalition in the 1930s. Most Democrats here would disagree with you on that.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #5 on: September 27, 2020, 01:30:15 PM »

Gender and education will be a more reliable indicator of political affiliation than race.



Hmmm, could it get to the point where in most hetero married couples the husband and wife have opposite views?

Here's what I got when I set white men at 84% Republican with 64% turnout and white women at 69% Democrat with 60% turnout in the FiveThirtyEight swing calculator:



Obviously kinda screwy considering that it has some majority male states and majority female states voting opposite of how they should, but I think the takeaway is that unless all racial groups are split by gender, an even split in the white demographic would be pretty damning for Republicans. Even then, the party of women would have a slight numerical advantage IIRC, especially if they're also carrying singles and LGBT couples.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2020, 01:48:36 PM »

This is already starting to shape up but we don't know how it's all gonna work out in the end.

The post-Civil Rights era GOP used the covert Southern Strategy of appealing to racism by means of class & "culture," but once the neo-conservative wing of the party was thoroughly discredited by the combined fallout from Iraq & the Great Recession, the group that replaced them were much more populist from the beginning & - as it has played out - much more open about their bigotry too. That obviously constitutes a pretty major shift & the only reason we're not really talking about it as such yet is because we're still in the midst of it.

The Democrats are still trying to figure out what the new coalition looks like on our end (seemingly 'pragmatic progressivism') & on top of that, we seem poised to see a pretty seismic change in the demographics of places like GA & TX. On the flip side, former Democratic strongholds like PA are turning into swing states as the bloc that voted Dem in the past (often due to union membership, which is more-or-less now completely a thing of the past) ages out.
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dw93
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« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2020, 02:29:34 PM »

It's too early to say honestly, as I can see both party coalitions going a variety of way depending on how the next two to three elections go. I can see a few scenarios:

1. Politics continue to be dominated by cultural/social issues, but the GOP gets it sh**t together when it comes to minority outreach due demographics. In this case, poorer, socially conservative Black and Latino voters (particularly black and latino men) start trending heavily Republican if the the GOP returns to a Bush era immigration stance (or as close to it as possible) while continuing down a populist path Post Trump. Asian voters however continue to trend heavily Democratic, while the White vote is split by gender, with white women going overwhelmingly Democratic, while white men (minus post grads and odd balls like me) becoming even more Republican. Both parties are economically populist in one form or another.

2. The GOP gets beat the  out at the Presidential level through the 2020s and you see a party system that somewhat resembles the 5th party system. The Democrats become a socially liberal version of the New Deal era Democratic party, while the Republicans, after a string of defeats for the Presidency and, more often than not, the House, emerge as a center right check and balance on a dominant Democratic party. This assumes though that a 6-3 Conservative Supreme Court doesn't completely rig the deck in the favor of the Republicans against the will of the people.

3. Both parties continue to go into the fringes, racial tensions continue to increase, and the country becomes even more tribal and polarized. Both parties change the rules and laws each time they have the Presidency and Congress (court packing, legislative process/rules, etc..) for the sake of political gain and trying to secure power for themselves, officially and permanently destroying our democracy and institutions in the process. Basically late 6th party system (2010-Present) on steroids. This definitely happens if Trump gets a second term, but there's a decent chance this happens after a Biden win to.
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vileplume
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« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2020, 05:31:57 PM »

It's too early to say honestly, as I can see both party coalitions going a variety of way depending on how the next two to three elections go. I can see a few scenarios:

1. Politics continue to be dominated by cultural/social issues, but the GOP gets it sh**t together when it comes to minority outreach due demographics. In this case, poorer, socially conservative Black and Latino voters (particularly black and latino men) start trending heavily Republican if the the GOP returns to a Bush era immigration stance (or as close to it as possible) while continuing down a populist path Post Trump. Asian voters however continue to trend heavily Democratic, while the White vote is split by gender, with white women going overwhelmingly Democratic, while white men (minus post grads and odd balls like me) becoming even more Republican. Both parties are economically populist in one form or another.

2. The GOP gets beat the  out at the Presidential level through the 2020s and you see a party system that somewhat resembles the 5th party system. The Democrats become a socially liberal version of the New Deal era Democratic party, while the Republicans, after a string of defeats for the Presidency and, more often than not, the House, emerge as a center right check and balance on a dominant Democratic party. This assumes though that a 6-3 Conservative Supreme Court doesn't completely rig the deck in the favor of the Republicans against the will of the people.

3. Both parties continue to go into the fringes, racial tensions continue to increase, and the country becomes even more tribal and polarized. Both parties change the rules and laws each time they have the Presidency and Congress (court packing, legislative process/rules, etc..) for the sake of political gain and trying to secure power for themselves, officially and permanently destroying our democracy and institutions in the process. Basically late 6th party system (2010-Present) on steroids. This definitely happens if Trump gets a second term, but there's a decent chance this happens after a Biden win to.

I concur with much of this though I don't actually think a pro-immigration stance would help the GOP that much if at all, though a softening of rhetoric would probably be beneficial. Immigrant communities especially those who have been established for at least a few generations actually tend to be fairly sceptical about new immigration, look at how well Trump did with established Hispanic communities in Southern Colorado for example. I also seriously doubt the kind of African-American voter that the GOP should be trying to win over has immigration particularly high up their priority list either.

Doing better with minority voters is much more about shedding their 'white grievance' reputation, dropping dog-whistle racism and making a concerted effort to make minority voters feel included in their 'America-first' vision of the country. The 'Ford-nation' blueprint is an example of how they could go about doing this.

I think that there is a fair chance that the USA is entering a period of Democratic dominance where the GOP really struggles to make headway (paralleling the Republican ascendancy in the Reagan years). Though all things come to an end and the Democrats will eventually alienate one or more of their core voting groups whilst the GOP will have adjusted their platform enough to appeal to these people. Given the composition of the Republican base and their utter hatred of the 'liberal elite', I find it very difficult to see them going back to Rockerfeller Republicanism to appeal to well of suburban moderates. More likely, they just completely drop the race stuff and the GOP in 25 years time looks to be a refined version of Trumpism with a much, much less white (or orange) face. The Kim Klaciks of this world are the party's future IMO, with as others said, education level being a better predictor of political leanings than race.

Whilst I do agree there will be at least a moderate sized gender gap in voting, I think it's quite unlikely that it will be anywhere near as big as many of the above contributors are predicting. This is because peoples' political opinions are strongly influenced by those around them. Seen as men and women mingle/socialise far more with each other than minority groups with extreme voting patterns tend to do with people outside of their group, (usually a factor of living/growing up in an area primarily populated by people of your own background, societal prejudice or shared religious values e.g. evangelicals) it is very unlikely that the conditions for an extreme gender based voting patterns could ever be met.
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Heebie Jeebie
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« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2020, 08:12:10 PM »

I think we entered a new party system between 2016 and 2018. 
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Stuart98
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« Reply #10 on: September 28, 2020, 02:09:42 AM »

I think we entered a new party system between 2016 and 2018. 
We entered a new party system between 2000 and 2008 when ancestral democratic areas started swinging against the party while the Democrats made substantial gains in cities; we're seeing the maturation of that over the past few years.
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Samof94
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« Reply #11 on: September 28, 2020, 06:51:39 AM »

So, will the 2030’s be a decade where the GOP has a Gore-like figure(basically Clinton without the baggage) who runs a more moderate(for the GOP) party(like it accepts climate change)Huh
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #12 on: September 28, 2020, 11:08:02 AM »
« Edited: September 28, 2020, 11:29:07 AM by Anarcho-Statism »

Well, I'll throw my hat into the ring.

Seventh Party System: 2024-2056; Renewed calls for government expansion during the Second Great Depression and Cold War II allow the Democrats to stabilize and ascend under Elizabeth Warren-esque leadership tolerable to both Biden and Sanders voters, the first president of which launches the Iran War. The Republicans, under the populist wing, are unable to win the Sun Belt until a rebranding in the 2030s allows moderates to win by tapping into minorities and those looking for more competent military action (think Nixon '68 on Vietnam). Despite lots of ticket balancing, the Democrats are unable to keep the coalition together a few decades later as intervention in Venezuela and Russia further drains the economy and the Sun Belt economy collapses (started once Asian tech industries overtake Silicon Valley and renewable energy becomes cost effective, compounded by racial violence and climate change).

Both are big government/populist/progressive parties that put serious funding into biomedical science after COVID-19, one positive outcome of which is limiting the impact of antimicrobial drug-resistant diseases down the road. The downside is bloodthirsty Sinophobic Americans with bioweapons.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #13 on: September 28, 2020, 11:42:31 AM »

So, will the 2030’s be a decade where the GOP has a Gore-like figure(basically Clinton without the baggage) who runs a more moderate(for the GOP) party(like it accepts climate change)Huh

my pet theory: Andrew Yang runs as a Republican in 2032 and wins in a landslide by bringing back some suburbs and doing well among minorities. His whole "human-centered capitalism" thing will be very much a winning message for that party after a decade in the wilderness, I think.

also fits with the history of "the opposite-party moderate" being either young or without political experience
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Heebie Jeebie
jeb_arlo
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« Reply #14 on: September 28, 2020, 11:44:56 AM »

I think we entered a new party system between 2016 and 2018. 
We entered a new party system between 2000 and 2008 when ancestral democratic areas started swinging against the party while the Democrats made substantial gains in cities; we're seeing the maturation of that over the past few years.

Nah, that process began in 1992-1994, and it was primarily a demographics shift.  The change that began in 2016-2018 is primarily an educational shift.
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Samof94
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« Reply #15 on: September 28, 2020, 11:58:08 AM »

So, will the 2030’s be a decade where the GOP has a Gore-like figure(basically Clinton without the baggage) who runs a more moderate(for the GOP) party(like it accepts climate change)Huh

my pet theory: Andrew Yang runs as a Republican in 2032 and wins in a landslide by bringing back some suburbs and doing well among minorities. His whole "human-centered capitalism" thing will be very much a winning message for that party after a decade in the wilderness, I think.

also fits with the history of "the opposite-party moderate" being either young or without political experience
Yang is a good candidate, but an actual politician like a blue state Governor might work better.
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