ABC/Washington Post: Biden +10

[WD]

Horus in 2016 said Hilary would win the PV and lose the EC, so maybe some of the hacks on here should take Horus more seriously. 

Ah yes, how dare we question Horus and his infallible electoral forecasting. Forgive us for such foolishness.

Reps keep the house.

Gillespie by under half a point.

At this point, Dems will definitely lose 4-5 senate seats. The house will break even at best.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Voters disapprove of Trump tax cuts and handling of Covid.  

We haven't fully reopened yet, and voters are very impatient, and don't want to continue living in lockdown.

There isn't any scientist out there telling us when are things gonna reopen, not anymore daily briefings

[tagimaucia]

Third parties won’t even total more than 2% of the vote this year IMO.  In the few polls he was included in you can find Gary Johnson getting around 6% at this point in the 2012 cycle.

[Pericles]

State polling averages, from 538;
Michigan-Biden +6.8%(49.7%-42.9%)
Pennsylvania-Biden +4.8%(49.7%-44.9%)
Wisconsin-Biden +6.4%(50.3%-43.8%)

[wbrocks67]

Look, I know nobody wants to hear it in this thread, but we keep having these polls showing Biden up 7-10 points nationwide and then we have other polls showing him up only 1-4 points in PA/WI/AZ and tied or losing in FL.

At a certain point, you have to accept that state and national polling are really telling two completely different stories, and you gotta decide which one you're gonna believe.  If you just look at the national polling, it's been a preordained landslide election ever since Biden launched his exploratory committee.  If you just look at the state polling, it's a tight race where even a small shift (2-3 points) in Trump's favor could be enough to win.

At any rate, we've got 4 weeks of prime time debates coming up, and we're finally going to get to see whatever October Surprises Trump and Barr have cooked up.

You're not taking the averages and I don't understand why.

[wbrocks67]

The average between the 2-way and 4-way is Biden +8 which is right on the average.

The 4-way has Jorgensen and Hawkins getting 7% of the vote however, which is just outlandish, and even more support than this particular poll had in 2016 for Johnson + Stein combined (6%).

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

WOW! Biden leads even more in the swing states than he does nationally overall.

Among other groupings, Biden leads by 54%-42% in the 13 states that currently are the most contested by the candidates (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin). Moreover, it's Biden by 20 points in the blue states won by Hillary Clinton, while dead even, 49%-49%, in the 2016 red states. Trump won those states four years ago by 53%-42%.

This doesn't make sense to me.  Which of these states is Biden ahead of Trump by more than 12?

[Brittain33]

It’s Trump losing independent women by 57 points for me. Damnnnnnnn.

Question: Tell me how you feel about this?
Try to control me boy you get dismissed

[wbrocks67]

WOW! Biden leads even more in the swing states than he does nationally overall.

Among other groupings, Biden leads by 54%-42% in the 13 states that currently are the most contested by the candidates (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin). Moreover, it's Biden by 20 points in the blue states won by Hillary Clinton, while dead even, 49%-49%, in the 2016 red states. Trump won those states four years ago by 53%-42%.

This doesn't make sense to me.  Which of these states is Biden ahead of Trump by more than 12?

These samples shouldn't be taken seriously. We're probably talking like 30-40 voters from each state in this grouping or something.

[kph14]

WOW! Biden leads even more in the swing states than he does nationally overall.

Among other groupings, Biden leads by 54%-42% in the 13 states that currently are the most contested by the candidates (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin). Moreover, it's Biden by 20 points in the blue states won by Hillary Clinton, while dead even, 49%-49%, in the 2016 red states. Trump won those states four years ago by 53%-42%.

This doesn't make sense to me.  Which of these states is Biden ahead of Trump by more than 12?

I think they mean the following:
Mentioned swing states: Biden +12
ALL states HRC carried: Biden +20
ALL states Trump carried: Tie

Therefore the swing states are included in the other two sub samples

[slothdem]

Pretty, pretty good. Though I'm surprised Jorgenson and Hawkins are getting that much support.

Polls always overstate support for 3rd party candidates. I believe Gary Johnson was polling at around 6% for most of the season.

[Roll Roons]

Pretty, pretty good. Though I'm surprised Jorgenson and Hawkins are getting that much support.

Polls always overstate support for 3rd party candidates. I believe Gary Johnson was polling at around 6% for most of the season.

That was mostly because the two major party candidates were exceptionally unpopular and Libertarians fielded an unusually strong ticket of two former governors. Biden is at least much more popular and the Libertarian ticket is two unknowns.

[ExSky]

WOW! Biden leads even more in the swing states than he does nationally overall.

Among other groupings, Biden leads by 54%-42% in the 13 states that currently are the most contested by the candidates (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin). Moreover, it's Biden by 20 points in the blue states won by Hillary Clinton, while dead even, 49%-49%, in the 2016 red states. Trump won those states four years ago by 53%-42%.

So I assume Ohio is red +3-5

[pbrower2a]

Biden 54% (+/-)
Trump 44% (+/-)

Not change from August 12-15.

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1310067113835589633?s=20

Basically:

1. 44% is about what Trump gets if the main effect on polling is that one has about 6% turnover from 2016 in the electorate from voters over 55 (about 5% more R than D) dying off with voters under 40 (about 20% more D than R) supplanting them. Donald Trump could not win with that. As an even shift (which is about where the states near the tipping point usually are) that would be enough in itself to flip Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida. 

2. A 54-44 split is usually good for a landslide in the electoral vote. Third-Party votes are down big from 2016, which should help Trump in Utah... but hurt him everywhere else. The Green Party nominee is no longer on the ballot in Arizona, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin, so we have  binary election in those key states.

3. At this stage, stability suggests big trouble for anyone significantly behind. Yeah, sure, the debates have yet to happen and in theory President Trump can offer new promises that he kept under cover until now and Joe Biden could somehow make a fool of himself. But the opposite is just as possible. That is a wash.

4. It is safe to say that with the stability in polling, minds are largely made up. It's hard to see any major constituency changing sides from where it now stands. My best guess would be farmers (should Trump promise a trade war) or Mormons (should the LDS hierarchy turn against Trump).

(I'd love to see Biden cultivate the Mormon vote just as Eisenhower did. Mormons do much right, and Trump is about as far from Mormon virtues as he could be).   

[EastOfEden]

(I'd love to see Biden cultivate the Mormon vote just as Eisenhower did. Mormons do much right, and Trump is about as far from Mormon virtues as he could be).   

They may come to the Democrats on their own. They’re a very urban, very educated demographic.