ABC/Washington Post: Biden +10

[Interlocutor]

OK, but national polls still don't matter.

Biden can win by 20 and it doesn't matter if he's just getting every red state from -15 to -5 but losing every swing state.

Sounds like a typical r/JoeBiden and/or Twitter reaction to any poll that's remotely positive for Biden.

Biden leading by under 10%: "Ignore the polls! Pretend he's down by 10%!"
Biden leading at or above 10%: "Ignore the polls! The only poll that matters are on Election Day!"

Gotta avoid all feelings of COMPLACENCY and optimism, I guess

[Gass3268]

Trump is only leading Biden by 6 points with non-college educated white women. If that's the case, Biden will sweep the competative states in the Midwest, including Iowa and Ohio.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Look, I know nobody wants to hear it in this thread, but we keep having these polls showing Biden up 7-10 points nationwide and then we have other polls showing him up only 1-4 points in PA/WI/AZ and tied or losing in FL.

At a certain point, you have to accept that state and national polling are really telling two completely different stories, and you gotta decide which one you're gonna believe.  If you just look at the national polling, it's been a preordained landslide election ever since Biden launched his exploratory committee.  If you just look at the state polling, it's a tight race where even a small shift (2-3 points) in Trump's favor could be enough to win.

At any rate, we've got 4 weeks of prime time debates coming up, and we're finally going to get to see whatever October Surprises Trump and Barr have cooked up.

[Buzz]

Donald Trump has never lost an election in years that Lebron James has reached the NBA finals, therefore this is #junk!

#realanalysis #/s

[GlobeSoc]

odd that third parties seem to be moving up after the summer ends rather than down as usual. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a situation where hawkins slightly drops or stagnates in PV but increases in percent in most states where he's on the ballot compared to stein, and jorgenson holds at a lower than 2016 but still relatively high 1-2% result. Add American Solidarity and PSL into the mix, and third parties might be starting a long term upswing, which makes sense if you consider that millenials are generally more open to third parties as a concept than previous generations.

[Alben Barkley]

ABC/WaPo in September 2016 had Clinton+2 FWIW

I guess that means this will be the actual margin then lol

[Non Swing Voter]

Look, I know nobody wants to hear it in this thread, but we keep having these polls showing Biden up 7-10 points nationwide and then we have other polls showing him up only 1-4 points in PA/WI/AZ and tied or losing in FL.

At a certain point, you have to accept that state and national polling are really telling two completely different stories, and you gotta decide which one you're gonna believe.  If you just look at the national polling, it's been a preordained landslide election ever since Biden launched his exploratory committee.  If you just look at the state polling, it's a tight race where even a small shift (2-3 points) in Trump's favor could be enough to win.

At any rate, we've got 4 weeks of prime time debates coming up, and we're finally going to get to see whatever October Surprises Trump and Barr have cooked up.

A lot of the state polls show Biden up a decent amount as well.  The RCP average shows him leading outside the margin of error in PA/MI/WI, and on the cusp of that in Arizona. 

It really seems as though Trump's only hope is that there is a systemic error with polling this race for likely voters that's even worse than 2016.  Biden's lead has been too big and too stable for Trump to win otherwise IMO.

[WD]

Look, I know nobody wants to hear it in this thread, but we keep having these polls showing Biden up 7-10 points nationwide and then we have other polls showing him up only 1-4 points in PA/WI/AZ and tied or losing in FL.

At a certain point, you have to accept that state and national polling are really telling two completely different stories, and you gotta decide which one you're gonna believe.  If you just look at the national polling, it's been a preordained landslide election ever since Biden launched his exploratory committee.  If you just look at the state polling, it's a tight race where even a small shift (2-3 points) in Trump's favor could be enough to win.

At any rate, we've got 4 weeks of prime time debates coming up, and we're finally going to get to see whatever October Surprises Trump and Barr have cooked up.

What are you talking about? We just got a poll from PA showing him up 7, AZ is an average Biden+3-4 lead, while being a state that underestimates Democrats due to issues with polling hispanics, and WI polls have consistently shown a Biden lead of upper single digits. I swear some people want this race to be close.

[Alben Barkley]

Crosstabs

There must be a lot of drama in a lot of suburban households!

[Frodo]

Not far from my own popular vote prediction:

Biden/Harris: 54%
Trump/Pence: 45%
third party/not voting: ~1%  

[Alben Barkley]

OK, but national polls still don't matter.

Biden can win by 20 and it doesn't matter if he's just getting every red state from -15 to -5 but losing every swing state.

Except he's not. The polls also show that. And also that makes no sense. What possible, logical reason would there be for Biden to improve 10 points in every red state but be unable to get the extra 10k votes or whatever he needs in Wisconsin?

I don't think you are fully considering how the math works, the probability, how state results don't exist in a vacuum but are correlated with each other, etc. This is why national polls DO matter. There is no universe in which Biden wins nationally by 10 but doesn't win the electoral college. 5? Maybe there's an outside shot of it. Still highly unlikely though (Hillary barely lost while winning the national vote by just 2.) 10? Utterly impossible.

[Rand]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

[Ferguson97]

Crosstabs

There must be a lot of drama in a lot of suburban households!

My house is the rare "mom supports Trump, dad supports Biden household.

[Alben Barkley]

Look, I know nobody wants to hear it in this thread, but we keep having these polls showing Biden up 7-10 points nationwide and then we have other polls showing him up only 1-4 points in PA/WI/AZ and tied or losing in FL.

At a certain point, you have to accept that state and national polling are really telling two completely different stories, and you gotta decide which one you're gonna believe.  If you just look at the national polling, it's been a preordained landslide election ever since Biden launched his exploratory committee.  If you just look at the state polling, it's a tight race where even a small shift (2-3 points) in Trump's favor could be enough to win.

At any rate, we've got 4 weeks of prime time debates coming up, and we're finally going to get to see whatever October Surprises Trump and Barr have cooked up.

Except they really, really are not.

If I wanted to cherrypick Biden's best state polls and worst national polls over the past couple weeks, I could easily argue he is doing better in the states and actually has an electoral college advantage! +5 in Ohio! +16 in Minnesota! +21 in Maine! Etc. But only +4 nationally according to Emerson! Trump +1 according to Rasmussen!!!

But overall, looking at the AVERAGES (which is REALLY what you should be doing), it appears that most of the key swing states are polling either just slightly to the right of the nation or about the same. That's about what you'd expect, and means Biden should comfortably win. The only ones that are voting significantly to the right of the nation are, like, Texas. And it's still very possible Biden wins it. That's how bad the national climate is for Trump. Texas shouldn't even BE a swing state. Neither should Iowa or Ohio. The fact that all those states are toss-ups right now is abysmal for him.

[Eraserhead]

Headline should probably be Biden +6 since Jorgensen is on the ballot everywhere and I guess Hawkins will be on the ballot in most places.

That said, I do imagine their support is greatly exaggerated here.

[Horus]

Not really that great when you incorporate third parties.

[Alben Barkley]

Headline should probably be Biden +6 since Jorgensen is on the ballot everywhere and I guess Hawkins will be on the ballot in most places.

That said, I do imagine their support is greatly exaggerated here.

I am pretty damn sure it is. Plus, Hawkins isn't gonna be on the ballot in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, so is he really a factor at all?

[Alben Barkley]

Not really that great when you incorporate third parties.

It could be Biden +60 and you'd still say it's not really that great, Kanye will spoil Minnesota.

[neostassenite31]

Those numbers after incorporating 3rd parties are almost exactly identical to the MN result from Mason-Dixon polled over the same period. Perhaps one could extrapolate from this that Biden's lead there would be larger without so many third party candidates

[politicallefty]

The total third party vote nationally won't even be half of what this poll says. Even in 2016, with both major party candidates having some of the worst favourability ratings in history, the total non-two-party vote was barely above 6%. At most, I think it'll be 3% this year, though probably around 2% in the end.

[VAR]

Trump approval (adults): 44/53 (-9, was 43/55)

[Interlocutor]

Not really that great when you incorporate third parties.

It could be Biden +60 and you'd still say it's not really that great, Kanye will spoil Minnesota.

Horus so badly wanting this race to tighten up or for Trump to win so everyone will take his doomerism seriously.

Nothing but personal vindication. "I told ya all year and no one believed me" or "Biden won and I'm so glad to have been wrong"

[Buzz]

Horus in 2016 said Hilary would win the PV and lose the EC, so maybe some of the hacks on here should take Horus more seriously. 

[Ljube]

The poll was conducted at the height of controversy whether Trump will accept the results of the election or not. That kind of hype influences polling results, particularly since the national sample is only 739 likely voters.

[AGA]

49-49 tie in 2016 red states? That's some bulls***.